April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[DR(S)NO]

Think it’s going to be a take of two halves kind of month…. Unsettled first 10 days or so then somewhat improving thereafter. A warm and settled last week.

10.4c and 111mm 

thank you please

[feb1991blizzard]

11c and 95mm please

[Metwatch]

9.6C and 108mm

Very wet first 7-10 days, and likely up to mid month, second half probably drier but not completely while staying near average. Have not gone for a CET of anything >10C as it's almost impossible to get an April CET of >10C while also being very wet. There is the first time for everything though so might happen this April! The scatter graph below showcases this nicely; typically the wetter an April is, the chillier it will be with the warmest ones often the driest with very few that can be classed as mild while being wet.

[WYorksWeather]

 Metwatch 1961 probably the closest if it's warm and wet you're looking for - add a degree or even a degree and a half to the temperature, and 10% or so to the rainfall, and it'd be a very warm and very wet April if the same pattern repeated over 50 years on. But I agree it's not common.

[Summer8906]

21 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

(note to J10, my earlier forecast is edited out of post) -- going for second warmest April now.

Mind you with the likely extremely dull and wet first half I can't see it being dramatically warm. Just "mild" due to mild nights and coolish days.

A dramatically warm April would require a significant anticyclonic spell I suspect.

Edited March 31 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 reef It really would be strange if this horrific, horrific season was the warmest spring on record.

Edited March 31 by Summer8906

[Stationary Front]

10.4 with 104mm please

[Kentish Man]

8.0C thanks

[February1978]

10.0C and 94mm please

Miserable first few days, mild and wet start, high minima, hope for a springlike spell later

[Daniel*]

8.8c and 89mm thanks, El Niño April’s tend to feature some colder N winds let’s see..

Edited March 31 by Daniel*

[Roger J Smith]

 

Table of forecasts for April 2024

 

CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER (order of entry) _________EWP forecasts in order 

 

11.5 _115.7__ Roger J Smith (40) ____________________153.0 _ Met.

11.0 _ 95.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (50) _________________135.0 _ LetItSnow!

10.6 _ 90.0 __ sunny_vale (33) ______________________ 133.0 _ I Remember Atlantic252

10.5 _ 85.5 __ Polar Gael (32) _______________________ 131.8 _ Kirkcaldy Weather

10.4 _100.0__ Methuselah ( 7 ) ______________________130.0 _ Emmett Garland

10.4 _110.0__ WYorksWeather (23) _________________ 130.0 _ summer8906

10.4 _111.0__ DR(S)NO (49) _________________________127.0 _ snowray  

10.4 _104.0__ Stationary Front (52) _________________125.0 _ Don ^

10.3 _ 85.0 __ Matt Stoke (22) _______________________ 120.0 _ B87

10.2 _110.0__ Addicks Fan 1981 (26,2.5) _____________115.7 _ Roger J Smith 

10.1 _ --- ---__ Typhoon John ( 3 ) _____________________113.0 _ Midlands Ice Age

10.1 _ --- ---__ Summer Sun (33) ______________________112.0 _ chilly milly

10.0 _ 94.0 __ February1978 (54) ____________________ 111.0 _ summer 18

10.0 _ 75.0 __ J 10 (56) _______________________________ 111.0 _ DR(S)NO

 9.9 _130.0__ Emmett Garland (21) ___________________110.0 _ Addicks Fan 1981

 9.8 _127.0__ snowray (31) ___________________________ 110.0 _ WYorksWeather 

 9.8 _ 89.0 __ Weather Observer (46) _________________ 110.0 _ Frigid  

 9.8 _107.0__ seaside60 (L1-2) ________________________ 110.0 _ jonboy  

 9.7 _ 45.0 __ stewfox (12) ____________________________ 

 9.7 _ 67.0 __ Weather 26 (14) ________________________ 108.0 _ Metwatch

 9.7 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (44) _______________________ 107.0 _ seaside60 ^

 9.6 _ --- --- __ Blue_Skies_do_I_See (29) _______________104.0 _ Stationary Front

 9.6 _ --- --- __ damianslaw (43) _______________________ 100.0 _ Methuselah 

 9.6 _ 97.0 __ Mr Maunder (48) _______________________ 100.0 _ Leo97t 

 9.6 _108.0__ Metwatch (51) __________________________ 100.0 _ syed2878

 9.5 _ 70.0 __ virtualsphere (10) _______________________ 

 9.5 _100.0__ syed2878 (38) ___________________________ 97.0 _ mulzy 

 9.5 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (42) ___________________ 97.0 _ MrMaunder

 9.5 _ 87.0 __ davehsug (L1-1) _________________________ 96.5 _ Thomas Green

 9.4 _ 96.5 __ consensus ______________________________ 96.5 _ consensus

 9.4 _135.0__ LetItSnow! (20) __________________________ 95.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard

 9.4 _110.0__ Frigid (24) ________________________________94.0 _ February1978

 9.4 _113.0__ Midlands Ice Age (45) ____________________92.0 _ Pulpstar 

 9.3 _ 84.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 1 ) ____________________91.0 _ rwtwm

 9.3 _ 91.0 __ rwtwm (19) ______________________________ 90.0 _ Bluehedgehog074  

 9.3 _125.0__ Don (L1-3) _______________________________ 90.0 _ sunny_vale 

 9.2 _ 53.0 __ summer blizzard ( 9 ) ____________________ 90.0 _ weatherforducks 

 9.2 _ 92.0 __ Pulpstar (28) _____________________________ 89.0 _ Weather Observer

 9.2 _ 97.0 __ mulzy (41) _______________________________ 89.0 _ daniel*

 9.1 _ 60.1 __ Bobd29 ( 6 ) _____________________________ 87.0 _ davehsug ^

 9.0 _ 63.2 __ average 1991-2020 _____________________85.5 _ Polar Gael

 9.0 _110.0__ jonboy (36) ______________________________85.0 _ Matt Stoke 

 8.9 _ 59.2 __ average 1994-2023 ______________________84.0 _ dancerwithwings 

 8.8 _ 74.0 __ Reef (37) _________________________________83.0 _ SummerShower

 8.8 _ 89.0 __ daniel* (55) ______________________________78.0 _ Jeff C

 8.6 _111.0__ summer 18 ( 8 ) __________________________77.0 _ Neil N

 8.5 _ 64.8 __ average 1981-2010 ______________________77.0 _ Godber 1

 8.5 _ 90.0 __ Bluehedgehog074 (18) ___________________75.0 _ J 10 

 8.5 _130.0__ summer8906 (30) ________________________ 74.0 _ Reef

 8.4 _ 77.0 __ Godber 1 (47) _____________________________70.0 _ virtualsphere

 8.1 _ 78.0 __ Jeff C (11) _________________________________ 70.0 _ The_PIT 

 8.1 _133.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 (17) _____________ 67.0 _ Weather 26 

 8.0 _ 70.0 __ The_PIT (35) _____________________________ 

 8.0 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (53) ________________________

 8.0 _ 58.4 __ average all data _________________________ 64.8 _ average 1981-2010

 7.9 _120.0_ B87 ( 2 ) __________________________________ 63.2 _ average 1991-2020

 7.9 _ 96.5 __ Thomas Green ( 5 ) ______________________ 60.1 _ Bobd29 

 7.8 _ 83.0 __ SummerShower (13) ____________________ 59.2 _ average 1994-2023

 7.8 _ 77.0 __ Neil N (25) _______________________________ 58.4 _ average all data

 7.6 _131.8__ Kirkcaldy Weather (39) __________________ 53.0 _ summer blizzard 

 7.5 _100.0__ Leo97t (16) ______________________________ 45.0 _ stewfox

 7.4 _ 40.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 4 ) _______________________ 40.0 _ shillitocettwo

 7.2 _112.0__ chilly milly (15) __________________________ 

 7.1 _153.0__ Met. (27) _________________________________

====================================================

As of 19:30 1st ___ 56 on time CET and 50 on time EWP forecasts plus 3 late (so far) _ totals 59, 53

<<< Late entries are welcome to end of 3rd of April. >>>

Edited April 19 by Roger J Smith
error in consensus spotted Apr 19

[J10]

10.0c and 75mm

Thank you Roger for the new style analysis, much better for me to use.

[Roger J Smith]

I agree, and I will add your forecast in now ... up to you of course, but I won't consider it late for EWP anyway. 

[davehsug]

9.5C and 87mm please. 

[seaside 60]

9.8c

107mm

Please..

[Metwatch]

Very mild first week on the cards, with potentially the CET reaching close to 12C by the start of next week.

I wonder what the rolling mean daily records are for April @Roger J Smith? I see that up to the 7th April 2011, that had a mean of 11.6C.

Edited April 1 by Metwatch

[Don]

9.3C and 125mm please.

[Roger J Smith]

April CET extremes and 1981-2010 averages, extreme values of running CET

 

NOTE: All temperature data now converted to v2.0. 

 

DATE ___ MAX yr _________ MIN yr ____________ CET __cum CET ____ Max CET __ Min CET

01 Apr ... 13.4 (1995) ........--0.0 (1799&1917) __8.3 _____ 8.3 ____ 13.4 (1995) __--0.0 (1799&1917)
02 Apr ... 13.9 (1835) ........--0.4 (1917) _________8.1 _____ 8.2 ____ 13.2 (2011) __--0.2 (1917)

03 Apr ... 15.0 (1946) ........ --0.5 (1799) ________ 7.4 _____ 7.9 ____ 12.9 (1946) __  0.0 (1917)
04 Apr ... 15.6 (1946)......... 1.0 (1809&1830) ___7.1 _____ 7.7 ____ 13.6 (1946) __ 0.5 (1799)
05 Apr ... 13.2 (1857) ......... 0.5 (1911) _________ 7.1 _____ 7.6 ____ 12.8 (1926,46)__1.2 (1917)

06 Apr ... 15.2 (2011) ......... 0.8 (1911) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.6 ____ 12.6 (1926) __ 1.4 (1917)
07 Apr ... 14.7 (1859) ......... 1.0 (1839) _________ 7.3 _____ 7.5 ____ 12.4 (1926) __ 1.7 (1917)
08 Apr ... 13.1 (2020) ......... 2.4 (1780) _________ 7.2 _____ 7.5 ____ 12.0 (1926) __ 2.1 (1917)
09 Apr ... 13.8 (2017) ......... 1.4 (1812) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.5 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 2.2 (1917)
10 Apr ... 14.1 (2020) ......... 0.5 (1837) _________ 8.2 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 2.1 (1917)

11 Apr ... 15.9 (1869) ......... 1.3 (1978) _________ 8.1 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 2.2 (1917)

12 Apr ... 14.5 (1939) ......... 1.1 (1879) _________ 7.8 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.5 (2011) __ 2.3 (1917)
13 Apr ... 14.6 (1792) ......... 1.1 (1816) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.2 (1778,2011)__2.4 (1917)
14 Apr ... 15.9 (1869) ......... 0.5 (1966)*_________8.0 _____ 7.7 ____ 11.1 (2011) __ 2.5 (1917) _ *(also 0.6 1816)
15 Apr ... 16.3 (1945) ......... 1.5 (1966) _________ 8.3 _____ 7.7 ____ 11.1 (2011) __ 2.6 (1917)

16 Apr ... 17.1 (1945) ......... 2.2 (1837&1892) ___8.6 ____ 7.8 ____ 11.1 (2011) __ 2.8 (1917)
17 Apr ... 14.8 (1865&2003) .. 2.1 (1793&1812) _ 8.4 ___7.8 ____ 11.1 (2011) _ 2.8 (1917)
18 Apr ... 17.0 (2018) ......... 1.7 (1807) _________ 8.1 _____ 7.8 ____ 11.2 (1945) __ 3.0 (1837,1917)
19 Apr ... 17.7 (2018) .........--0.2 (1772) _________8.2 _____ 7.8 ____ 11.4 (1945) __ 3.2 (1837)
20 Apr ... 16.7 (1893) ......... 2.3 (1849) _________ 8.4 _____ 7.9 ____ 11.5 (1945) __ 3.3 (1837)

21 Apr ... 15.8 (1893) ......... 2.4 (1936) _________ 9.2 _____ 7.9 ____ 11.6 (2011) _ 3.3 (1837)
22 Apr ... 15.4 (2011) ......... 3.4 (1778) _________ 9.4 _____ 8.0 ____ 11.7 (2011) __ 3.5 (1837)
23 Apr ... 15.9 (2011) ......... 2.5 (1908) _________ 9.7 _____ 8.1 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 3.6 (1837)
24 Apr ... 15.4 (2007) ......... 0.6 (1908) _________ 9.7 _____ 8.1 ____ 12.0 (2011) __ 3.7 (1837)
25 Apr ... 15.9 (1821) ......... 1.8 (1908) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.2 ____ 12.0 (2011) __ 3.9 (1837)

26 Apr ... 15.9 (1821) ......... 3.4 (1981) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.3 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 4.1 (1837)
27 Apr ... 16.3 (1866) ......... 2.8 (1919) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.4 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 4.2 (1837)
28 Apr ... 16.9 (1775) ......... 3.0 (1826) _________ 9.9 _____ 8.4 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 4.4 (1837)
29 Apr ... 19.7 (1775) ......... 0.7 (1856) _________ 9.9 _____ 8.5 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 4.5 (1837)
30 Apr ... 17.4 (1775) ......... 2.7 (1945) ________ 10.5 _____ 8.5 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 4.7 (1701&1837)*

* Min CET on 30th from monthly averages, no daily data for 1701 otherwise. 

===========================================================================

1991-2020 CET daily averages and running means

1 __ 8.3 _ 8.3 ___ _ 6 __ 8.4 _ 8.2 ___ _ 11 __ 8.4 _ 8.2 ______ 16 __ 8.6 _ 8.3 ___ _ 21 __10.0 _ 8.5 ___ _ 26 __10.0 _ 8.8

2 __ 8.6 _ 8.5 ___ _ 7 __ 8.0 _ 8.1 ___ _ 12 __ 8.3 _ 8.3 ______ 17 __ 8.8 _ 8.3 ___ _ 22 __10.2 _ 8.5 ___ _ 27 __ 9.8 _ 8.9

3 __ 8.0 _ 8.3 ___ _ 8 __ 8.1 _ 8.1 ___ _ 13 __ 7.8 _ 8.2 ______ 18 __ 8.6 _ 8.3 ___ _ 23 __10.5 _ 8.6 ___ _ 28 __ 9.7 _ 8.9

4 __ 7.7 _ 8.2 ___ _ 9 __ 8.5 _ 8.2 ___ _ 14 __ 8.4 _ 8.2 ______ 19 __ 8.8 _ 8.3 ___ _ 24 __10.6 _ 8.7 ___ _ 29 __ 9.8 _ 8.9

5 __ 8.0 _ 8.1 ___ _10__ 8.7 _ 8.2 ___ _ 15 __ 8.6 _ 8.3 ______ 20 __ 9.2 _ 8.4 ___ _ 25 __10.6 _ 8.8 ___ _ 30 __10.3 _ 9.0 (8.97)

 

[Roger J Smith]

 Metwatch Just posted table with highest value of running CET 12.4 (1926) for 7 April, 2011 takes over after 9 April except for a spell of 1945 running values that edged ahead 18-20 April. 1778 popped in as a tied value on 13th. If we do get into near-record territory I will post a list of top ten or top twenty values to whatever date appears to be significant. 

 

 

[damianslaw]

Hooray April is here, marking the start of the 'lighter' half of the year, and here at least the 'sunnier' half of the year, though March can give September a run for its money sunshine wise.

It doesn't though, surprisingly, mark the start of the drier or warmer half of the year from a lakeland perspective, February believe it or not marks start of drier half, and we have to wait until May to enter the warmer half of the year. Taking all this into account, clearly May, June and July are the best months of the year here, each are in the warmer, sunnier, lighter and drier half of the year. August marks the start of the 'wet season'... Nov, Dec and Jan the worse if you are not of a wet, dull, dark, cold persuasion. 

Edited April 1 by damianslaw

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Looking like Roger's 11.5C prediction will be closest 10 days in.

Imagine if we had a mild, cloudy/ windy April with a warm plume at the end? The 2011 record would be put to bed.

It's those mild 9am values that have a massive influence this early in the year.

Edited April 2 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Don]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see already thinking I've gone too low with the CET!  However, will have stick by it.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 Don If I could change my 9.6 to 11.6C I would. We'll just have to hope for a high pressure system to park itself over us leading to see cold nights.

Edited April 2 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[MattStoke]

April off to a mild start. Picking up where March left off.

[Summer Sun]

9.6c to the 1st

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average