chris78

Id love to see some accurate stats, because Im not sure its recent thing, my guess would be if we took say 1900 - 30, 1930 -60, 1960- 90 and 1990 - 2017, they would all be similarly snow starved for Preston and similar areas.

Ive lived in Preston since 97, twenty years The only lying snow that was deeper than a dusting and lasted more than a day was 2009 and 2010 (I may be forgetting or been away for other minor falls) The 4-5 inches we got in Dec 2010 was the most my 82 year old father on law could remember for Preston, now he may be forgetting some too, but it gives an indication of how poor it is here, and not just a recent thing. I think I am right in saying neither 63 or 47 bought much snow to Preston.

I have my fingers crossed for you, after moaning at you before I would be delighted to be wrong and see you get snow!

Yep I remember watching huge chunks of ice smashing into a bridge over the ribble, thinking, I'm not sure ill ever see this again, it was around mid day and about - 5 (I think). I think I was right, that may not happen again for 100 years.

I suppose falling snow may be possible, but not lying snow surely? My temp is 5.2 and dp is 0.8, going to take a hell of a cool down for snow to stick. Unless you live up a hill I would give up now.

Think maybe you should take a break CM, you seem to take it quite personally and it seems to surprise you every time. You live in an area that isnt going to get much if any snow, ever, it will happen but it will be very rare. On the plus side you live in one of the most beautiful parts of the country.

Thats a shame, things can change quickly I know, but anything good enough for snow here looks unlikely in the 2nd half of Jan. For me that only leaves feb, I know we can and do get snow in March or even April, but personally once we are into Mach, I stop being interested in cold and snow and would much prefer to see settled and mild.

No need to apologise Joe, looking for positive chats and forecasts is fine, its a weather forum and we all (most) want snow. Its what people do after reading the posts, to think there is a chance of snow, or this something to keep in eye, seems a normal response, even after after all the failed chances. To think, wow tell the kids, book a day off work, buy a sledge, seems like settting your self up for disappointment (unless you live up a hill). Surely if you live in far west Lancashire/Cumbria/Merseyside you have been let down enough times to start building a self defence mechanism? Particularly with this one, its not like it ever looked nailed on, I cant understand why anyone in the snow starved areas could have been anything other than very doubtful.

There could well be a meteorological reason, but my best guess would be the usual, computer generated forecasts are not worth the paper (screens) they are written on.

You misunderstand, no panic, just a realistic assessment of snow chances.

this is how people get so disappointed, the models are not clear cut, the bbc and met are not really on board yet, but when people bring this up they are told why the bbc are wrong, well the chances are they are not wrong, the signals are you will need elevation for lying snow, if you don't have elevation you are probably out of luck.

...As for near the coast, it needs to be perfect for that, and this isn't. But if I lived 20 miles inland or 200m asl, I'd be very excited.

Those like me in typically snow starved areas.....to avoid crushing disappointment, dont get too exited this time. Unless there are some big changes (and even then be skeptical) this looks like a no go for anyone nearish the coast or a 0 asl.

Incredible isnt it, in winter for most this isnt a weather forum, its a snow forum. Its happened a few times whereby a really interesting period of weather at T - 24 is largely ignored, while members obsess over a slim chance of snow at T 360. And the anger/depression in the regional threads when it doesnt deliver, from people who live in places like me, where lying snow of any depth is probably a once in 20 year event. Models are great, but when it comes to snow forecasting, in depth local knowledge is better, I never expect snow here, whatever the models say and my verification stats beat all the models. Lying snow is modelled (within semi reliable time frame) for my location maybe 3-4 ta winter for the last 10 years, how many times has it happened...once. If you live in a snow starved area remain skeptical whatever the models say until you see it falling!

Here we go again in the model thread, a run doesnt show what some people want and its 'just one run' 'its 10 days away' 'its a useless model' but when just one run from a useless model 10 days away shows cold, we can all get exited like giddy school children. Its often very knowledgeable posters who join in these double standards.... a physiologist would have a field day in that thread.....cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias a plenty.

As usual the model thread is full of people complaining about posters discussing a breakdown. It seems it's ok to discuss cold, or storms or snow shown by any model at any time frame but discuss a breakdown and you are some sort of fantasist. It's the same with will it won't it cold snaps, it's fine to get excited about one cold run, but mention a mild run and you aren't looking at the big picture.

I stand to be corrected but lying snow more then 1cm, in Preston last time was 2010, even then only an inch at most, a bit less in 2009 and before then, I can't remember.

Anyone Chorley way setting snow?

Heavy wet snow here, settling in most places.

Is it because I moved to a western coastal town (when I was 17)?

Yeah, as Jo's blog on the sticky above says, this is no way nailed on. People are getting very excited again.

Some didn't want to believe it so much so that anyone who dared doubt the snow was told they where, throwing their toys out of the pram, or where even embarrassing.

Every year (normally several times), when those of us in snow starved areas say we dont think it will happen, we get posts like that back. I cant wait for the time I have to say, 'yep you were right I shouldnt have worried Im snowed in' I havent had to say that since 2010.

I admire your hope, but.......you are going off old information, the latest forecasts say no.

temp up from 41. to 4.7 dew up from 1.3 to 2.2.