chris78

Come on everyone, there is a really interesting week coming up, it's not ALL about snow in your garden is it? If it is those who live on the West Coast are setting up for allot of misery over the years. I'd love to see snow, but I'll still enjoy this week without it.

I know models can overdo snow, but theres a few chances there, surely even snow starved Preson and the rest of us west coasters would be unlucky to miss them all? Yeah remember earlier when I said i wasnt going to obsess about snow...not going so well is it.

Cheers, I dont think it was that deep in centre of Preston (i live near Avenham Park) but it could be selective memory? Im really interested now, can anyone recollect or find evidence of any snow in Preston from an easterly?

Im not sure thats possible as the wind will be easterly, so any Irish sea showers will head to Ireland?

Yeah that the worry I had......and to confirm, my father in law, 82 this year, said exactly the same. Worse thing is, 2010 was less than 6 inches (?) cetinly wasnt near a foot, and that the best its been in 70+ years, thats incredible. Although I have told that story on here before and others have questioned it, maybe they were both forgetting an event?

Very IMBY post here, we know on the west coast eaterlies arent great for snow, this isnt looking like an ordinary easterly though, as said above lots of lows popping up ,very unstable flow etc. But this easterly isnt totally unprecedented, so are there any major historical easterlies that have ever delivered snow right to the west coast (not from the breakdown but from the eaterly itself)

This will be the first big cold spell since the massive cuts to local authority funding, be interesting to see how they cope.

I have no doubt a great cold spell is coming, and very little doubt that people in the east of the region will see snow maybe lots. For the snow starved west coast, much less hopeful, we know all the models tend do overdo snow. I did say much less hopeful, I do think there is a chance even here. Im going to try and not obsess too much over snow, this looks like being a memorable spell without it

Not really interested in the weather then?

No you cant assure us of that at all, I have never been one for ramping and am always very skeptical, but with the charts we have at the moment, to be SO negative, from a member of a weather forum, I find that strange. Of course we might not get snow, but we might, and do the charts we are seeing not exite you at all?

Would it be possible to ban any reference to what weather apps say over the next week or so. They are ALL absolute garbage, at most things but particularly rain and snow It would be right pain in the weeble if the thread was full of sad faces becasuse their weather apps said snow yesterday but dont today. Well done pip for deleting yours....dont look looking for a better one...it doesnt exist!

Please dont take this the wrong way, I am not for one minute saying its all gone tits up, but the second warming doesnt just affect the models, it affects the weather too, what if they effect is to dilute the strength or reduce the longevity of the cold? Lots of people have made the point you make, but all seem to assume the SSW will make the models wobble and the settle right back on the ultra cold solution, well maybe they wont?

Brilliant John, Thankyou! Thats the sort of consistency I was hoping for, and will make the thread a much more useful tool (as it is in summer)

But Frosty again this is only directed at people pointing out less snowy charts, there is a post a few below yours pointing out snow depths, several posters have like it...nobody has pointed out how hard snow is to forecast. For learners this massively effects the usefulness of the thread. When its a poster saying no or little snow on a run, mods and others are keen to tell them not to mislead learners, when its the other way round there are no such warnings, this results in a thread were people are free to ramp snow, but worried about criticism for pointing out less snowy charts.

But as all of the posts above explained to me, we are not to focus on snow in the models?

Thanks Jo and the others who responded! Am I right in thinking then that posters getting really exited about snow the last few days are being just as foolish as posters panicking about lack of snow today?

As a learner can you help me here, I know and have seen with my own eyes that models are poor at picking up snow and that it can pop up from nowhere, 'get the cold in then worry about snow etc.' if that is the case, why where there so many posts in the last few days about how much snow the models where showing? Can you see how that confuses a learner? Comment on the models when they show snow, thats fine, but when they dont, ignore them, they cant pick up snow???? Is it not the case that some of the model runs have shown set ups that are very likely to deliver lots of snow to large areas, and other runs have shown set ups that may see snow popping up but less likely and to a smaller area? If that is the case, is it not legitimate to comment on that?

I know there will still be lots of chopping and changing, but it strikes me as interesting the number of posters in the model thread telling us not to look beyond sunday, some of them in a fairly patronising way........if we are not to look beyond sunday, what exactly have we been getting so exited about for the last two weeks? oh I see, look beyond sunday when its an upgrade but only a naive amateur would pay attention to a downgrade, is that it?

It definitely could, it could be the biggest winter event since 2010, but will it? Id say its as nailed on as any event can be 6 days away, but a key part of that statement is the 6 days away bit.

I get all the excitement and share it but.........it looks like an easterly is, but lets face it after these charts we dont just want an easterly we want epic! Its still 6 days at least to the real cold, even with the model agreement would it not be unusual for the models to have picked up and stick with the correct solution 7 days out? Espciially with the full effects of ssw still evolving? Also alot of people saying even a watered down version would be great, but would it, isnt one option the cold air all goes south and we get a standard easterly? Like I said, im exited too, but is confidence getting a bit high this fr out?

Just a nagging doubt, the coldest weather is over a week away, we saw on a couple of ecm runs three exists the possibility of the coldest air going south. Is it likely the models will show today's charts again and again for 7 days. I know an easterly is nailed on, but at 7 days there is surely still doubt about the severity?

Indeed as a gardener with exotic tastes, you'll know its not so much the cold as the wet cold that tends to kill plants, and this looks like being a fairly dry cold spell (although ground is obviously pretty wet) An interesting effect of 2010 was daffodils not flowering or flowering very late....yet tulips did fine, a bit of research and I discovered it wasnt the extreme cold that had caused this but a mild autumn, daffs will start to grow roots in the autumn when it starts to cool, they will then more or less shut down when it goes very cold and start again in Spring, in 2010, there was no autumn cool down, it went from mild autumn to freezing winter, hence no time for daffs to root. I found it interesting that as crazy cold as the winter had been, it was a mild autumn as much as the cold winter that did for the daffs. (sorry non gardeners)

Indeed, I would have much preferred this (if there is a this!) in Dec or Jan, but if its going to be as epic as some of the charts suggest, Im happy.

Dont mind a warm spring if its a gradual warm and smoothly moves into summer, I hate a stop start spring, with a warm up followed by some nasty late frosts.....but thats the gardener talking.

I am 100% with you on 2010, in lots of ways its spolied my enjoyment of winter model watching, i like snow, but only if its a least a couple of inches deep and lasts a couple of days, for me the only route to that is get severe cold in first. Id rather see extreme cold maximums in the models than snow, if we get both great, but cold trumps snow for me, even dry cold. Give me a week of ice days with no snow over that crap we have just had, with wet transient snow any day. After 2010, I said I may not see the likes again in my lifetime, I still think that's possible, but a few of the runs recently have come close, I dont think we will get a 2010 repeat....but it is not totally out of the question and thats good enough for me.