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Cheshire Freeze

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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze

  1. Cheshire Freeze
    Next chance will be later Jan Though I’ve just checked the GFS strat output and I personally wouldn’t bank on that either with SPV sat over the pole.
  2. Cheshire Freeze
    The SSW was critical IMO but what do I know, others are saying that isn’t the case. IMO it would have aided a more -AO as it was happening just like the 2013 event did.
  3. Cheshire Freeze
    Saw the writing a few days ago personally. That’s why I’ve not bothered with much input on here.
  4. Cheshire Freeze
    Looking like later Jan to me now though if we miss the boat on this cycle. This is where a split SSW would have given us a safety net.
  5. Cheshire Freeze
    I don’t think a Greenland HP is the form horse tbh with you. A topple into Scandi is looking more likely than that…a UK HP even more likely than that
  6. Cheshire Freeze
    No worries. It’s a hotly debated point but obviously any westerly momentum in the strat in the middle of winter (where the strat/trop are most likely to be coupled) is not ideal, no matter how relatively weak. There have been changes in the modelling. Look at the NH set up. We’ve gone from initial tpv in tatters type charts to a healthy looking tpv atop some modest Atlantic amplification.
  7. Cheshire Freeze
    The issue being that where we were orginally seeing solidly -AO charts being churned out, we’re now seeing strengthening TPV. This is due to the failed reversal IMO. So we are seemingly reliant on Atlantic sector amplification…which really isn’t ideal to hang your hat on.
  8. Cheshire Freeze
    I’ve personally never put much stock in the ensembles. They can be as fickle as the op runs at times. Only takes one of the stragglers to have it nailed and the whole set will shift. Seen it too many times…
  9. Cheshire Freeze
    Looks like a split flow to me? Strong WAA there
  10. Cheshire Freeze
    The way that Iberian heights are lingering, there will be some anomalous heat building down that way come spring. Even with Greenland heights they still fester on the GFS control
  11. Cheshire Freeze
    I personally think we needed the SSW to grasp the mooted cold Jan. It’s a bit of a gut punch to be honest. We will get the vortex split eventually IMO but it’s looking likely later Jan now. Feb and March cold doesn’t really do it for me.
  12. Cheshire Freeze
    Too much vodka mate?
  13. Cheshire Freeze
    You’ll struggle to sustain lightning over land in December. Zero surface heating. Any lightning is usually associated with maritime influence so the further away from the sea it gets, the less likely lightning is.
  14. Cheshire Freeze
    Bugger all here. Too far S. Such a bland December with a seemingly constant wind.
  15. Cheshire Freeze
    We could get a notable reversal a bit later- possibly why March has been flagged up as being potentially very blocked by the seasonals.
  16. Cheshire Freeze
    Strong GEFS mean at that lead time. Impressive Time to get the big coats out soon.
  17. Cheshire Freeze
    Impressive back end of the GFS…
  18. Cheshire Freeze
    GFS is superb at D8 this morning
  19. Cheshire Freeze
    Cracking GFS run and completely in line with expectations too. As you say, locked in at that point with little pressure from zonal winds higher up. I must admit to having a little bemused over the past days at members who have been raising a glass to a mild winter…because all the signs point to cold. I can’t say much though because I do the same in summer when I just want it cool and the majority want heat!
  20. Cheshire Freeze
    Last day of work for me today then off until the 28th. Knackered but looking forward to a few days break. First Christmas Eve off in over a decade.
  21. Cheshire Freeze
    If you want a cold Jan-Mar then yes. Straight out of the ‘13 playbook
  22. Cheshire Freeze
    All looking very ‘12/‘13 to me. The way these wedges of weak heights being modelled are popping up in the mid range is reminiscent of what happened just prior to and during the strat warming that year. Even the potential warming date looks similar.
  23. Cheshire Freeze
    One big roar outside here. Things banging around. Usually happens at around 60mph.
  24. Cheshire Freeze
    Things banging around outside now
  25. Cheshire Freeze
    Howling out there
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