Cwmbran Eira

I know it's only weather blah blah blah. But I'm finding the thought of another warm and wet Christmas day thoroughly depressing. I'm usually a bit "what will be will be". All the bloody rain this year has finally got to me. Hoping the outlook will change but got a bad feeling. GP still seems confident of some proper winter to come and there's still plenty of time.

Snow covering to the hill tops here this morning. Around 300m and above by the looks of it. Looking forward to next week. Cold and dry is nice. Cold and snow even better. Fingers crossed! Just seen a comment in the strat thread (Mr Hugo) suggesting a warm up during Christmas week. That would be dissapointing but still a long way off so who knows.

I'm quite relaxed about the current model predictions. Cooling down for winter. Getting more interesting as we progress into deep winter. The current setup looks full of potential. Certainly better than last year. Proper cold 2nd half of December and well into January would be perfect for me. 09/10 was for more interesting in terms of snow for me. 3 or 4 huge dumps of snow. Dec 2010, although very interesting and cold, didn't produce anywhere near that amount of snow. 2 days left for autumn and we're already getting very chilly temps. 3-5c forecasted for the next few days. We can proably all remember whole winters where we didn't see single figure temps. Well it felt like that anyway. There's a lot of reports this year that give reference to specific years as suffering similar events. I remember the storm back in September when it was reported to be the lowest recorded pressure in September since 1981. The BBC are currently showing a video of November floods referencing 1939 & 1963. All preceded very interesting winters. There's been plenty more which have slipped my mind. Bit uncanny. All good stuff.

Why thank you kind sir. I will give it a go. Do I need an account?

Fergieweather teasing again about his little chats with mates at the meto Why can't our Derick do the same for us Welshy's. or even our Behnaz

Great!. Something definately changed a few years ago with respect to weather patterns. 6 wash out summers & some great cold/snowy winters. I might finally get to use that snow shovel I bought in Aldis last November. £3.99 and never used. Criminal

cheeky! he's a gonna. That was funny though. I was going to ask him for a quote to laminate me throughout. Too late now. He's probably gone to wrestle bison or something. What's your gut feeling on this winter? sniffs of something special?

Old laminate floori causing havoc over the model thread. Hilarious! It's like he's the Bieber of the weather world. Is it really you? classic Anyway. Already more interesting weather to look forward to this year compared to the whole of last winter. My only worry (I know, never happy) is that it will be short lived. I would really love a sustained cold spell end of December carrying through well into January. Interesting stuff though. Better stock up on the old wood!

Same here. Last year they were full. This year almost nothing

Interesting afternoon yesterday as others have reported. I was stoking the old wood burner and staring out of the window in a bit of a day dream then BOOM! Big lightening straight in front of me followed by a big old hail storm. The mountain has a few white patches this morning ~300m asl by the looks of it. Not sure if its left over hail or snow.

Walking the dogs this morning was the coldest I've felt since December 2010. Probably due to the wind and rain adding to the chilly temperatures. Great to see the white stuff in Wales so early on. There seems to be a very seasonal feel to things at the moment i.e. it feels like a proper Autumn. Things cooling down nicely for the winter. Nice to see the nae maps Andy posted come true. Hopefuly we'll be seeing a lot more of that.

Interesting article http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19995084 " She said that this year's conditions were partly caused by a move to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which would be likely to lead to more frequent cold, drier winters - like the 1960s - and also wetter summers for 10-20 years."

Big nose?

2009/2010 for me. 3 seperate snow falls of depths up to and over 30cm's. 2010/11 obviously very cold end Nov/Dec but we missed out on the major snowfall that season. Close call though. Hoar frost during Dec 2010 was stunning. Also remember walking in the snow in cloudless blue skies. I'm just a sucker for deep snow. Love it.

1st notable ground frost this morning. not sure what temperature we got down to though. Think the temp monitor needs a new battery

bingo bango great stuff!

GP Model discussion Funny, was just looking at that Nick. It now seems verly likely that the existing and programmed anomalies will leave us with a solid anomalous ridge over large parts of the Arctic, centred over Svalbard. There were periodic phases where this type of anomaly persisted in October, notably none in the 1990s and few in the 1980s. Roll these forward into November, little change. I'll leave others to take these into the winter thread but note the development of a set wave pattern across the NH with well defined ridges and troughs. ooh the little tease. Shut that door! Somebody more intelligent than me please extrapolate

Worst September floods & storms since 1981. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19722443 We know what followed then. Another sign? I know. No 2 years are the same. But another straw to clutch.

I'll see if I can scan some of my parents photos. Some crackers. The old Vauxhall Chevette competely hidden by a huge drift. I'm sure this was a year my father & a few other men in our street walked 3-4 miles to the local dairy (Ty-Coch) and dragged crates of milk back on sledges.

I'm very familiar with this event. I was 3 at the time so I'm not sure what I actually remember or what I've learnt from photos and stories. My mother tells me that it started in the evening very fine sparkly snow. It got heavier and continued for almost 2 days. we have photos of our car completely covered by a huge 15ft drift, can only make it out by a bit of the bumper sticking out. Apparently I was carried home for over a mile when my mother was sent home from work and collected me from the baby sitter. It was blizzard conditions and lying snow was already over 30cm deep. She had to get up a rather large hill where we lived at the time. I've heard that story hundreds of time. It continued for at least another 12 hours to give huge drifts and the deepest lying snow in my life time. http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/mid/sites/rememberwales/pages/snow_1982_photos.shtml?2 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/Record-cold-and-snow.htm http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2010/01/13/so-you-think-the-snow-s-bad-this-year-91466-25586805/ http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/52333-short-film-of-deep-snow-wales-1982/ http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/nature/mediaexplorer/?theme_group=tv_radio&theme=green_wales&set=green_wales_snow  http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/mid/sites/rememberwales/pages/snow_1982_photos.shtml?2

massive spiders = harsh winter fact!

Oh ye. There's some top rampers there. Good bit of fun though. Fingers crossed!

That's a new one on me. Do you have to register? can't find it

ye.chopping logs maybe fun at 1st but I can bet the novelty will wear off pretty quickly. Gonna have to buy some wood for the 1st winter. No toast yet. Haven't really fired it up properly, waiting for the chilly nights to set in. Happy to wait if it means we'll have a nice few weeks of weather though. Won't be happy to have 15c temps on Christmas day again though. The fire will be on whatever the temperature on that day so it could mean shorts & t-shirts if it's a repeat of last year

Looking forward to the winter too. Hoping for a good one. Had a wood burner installed so looking forward to keeping nice and cosy.