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cobbett

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Everything posted by cobbett

  1. cobbett
    Lol - well if you find these longe rangers useful then thats up to you. Most of the time it'll be right but thats not difficult as they cover virtually every base on each forecast. Suggest you check the initial long range forecast for next week - vague or what and next to useless IMHO ! fergie mentioned sometime that they were deemed as something that 'had to be produced' for the general public but no great store was made in the production of them.
  2. cobbett
    Not sure why people ar banging on about how great the METO are in these long range forecasts - they just sit on the fence until any pattern change is staring them in the face and they have no option. This forum is not about forecasts but model discussion so its up to you as how you interpret the data Anyway post Fergies latest tweets he's now suggesting that the cold may linger awhile longer now but bet you won't see that on the latest METO update !
  3. cobbett
    Exatcly - why people get wound up by these met updates is bizarre. They'll aways go with the 'cautious' approach especially when we have a weather pattern that goes against the norm. If you look at pretty much all their long term forecasts they all the same format - "wettter in the NW, Drier in the SE.... zz. They'll be loathe to change this until they have to !
  4. cobbett
    Excellent 06z but now expect the downgrades to start appearing ! Always seems to happen and we'll end up with a somewhat watered down event. The ensembles though are looking impressive so fingers crossed
  5. cobbett
    So a brief northerly which will do diddly squat down here and then a coolish dry period. Does nothing for me but great news for those affected by flooding
  6. cobbett
    So appears now after the initial anticipation of some seasonal wintry weather all we will end up with is replacing mild and wet with cool and wet ... Oh deep joy
  7. cobbett
    Ah this is the life - lovely and mild and sitting outside with just a shirt on and enjoying a quiet beer! If you can't have a bit of snow this will definitely do for me !
  8. cobbett
    Isnt always the case though - would love to know when metoffice (or other professional orgs) predicted a more blocked/colder winter. At least MO appear to be considering the possibility of a colder end to this winter - phew !
  9. cobbett
    Anything from 20-30 days out is surely just based on probabilities than anything else. I'd be more interested in knowing when was the last time one of these models picked up a major pattern signal (away from a mobile westerly regime) that far out and got it correct. I might be impressed if it regularly picks up on these
  10. cobbett
    Same old arguments every year when Fergie appears to write off a whole month based on one GLOSEA run. It's what it currently shows. Would love to know it's long range verification stats throughout winter but would assume that without some compelling signal for a pattern change it just defaults to a the usual mobile westerly regime. The next met outlook will as 90% of the time mention - Windy and Rain in the NW, drier in the SE. Even I could forecast that
  11. cobbett
    The metoffice will reach an all time low (IMO) in severe weather alerts if they issue one for snow for us down here !
  12. cobbett
    He did mention on another post that post Dec, it was looking pretty mild as well.
  13. cobbett
    As the fergie quote on the previous pages alludes to - its all about probabilities so of course the probability will be a mild winter but I'm not attaching great significance to this - long range accurate forecasting is still a myth IMO !
  14. cobbett
    He's backing the form horse -like a lots of experts predicting Chelsea would win the premiership this year and look how thats panned out, so still hope !
  15. cobbett
    Never seen anything like it here in Southampton - everybody's stopped working to peer out the windows and take pics lol
  16. cobbett
    Incredible squall again in Southampton ! Have fun all those to the NE of this
  17. cobbett
    Encountered that squall driving to Southampton - pretty nasty !
  18. cobbett
    There's nothing forecast for my neck of the woods but isn't this area of rain at Rennes heading towards south central areas ?
  19. cobbett
    Thanks for that - it's a reoccurring scenario for us in the UK. Weather warnings = pinch of salt !
  20. cobbett
    Nothing for our parts. Latest beeb forecast showed a swathe of central southern England under heavy rain and lightening for later on this evening but just think they're covering themselves ! Tomorrow pretty much the same apart from a few moderate rain periods zzz
  21. cobbett
    Was expecting a nasty journey by car to Southampton but radar shows most of the rain has sheared off to the east and west .Didn't expect that !
  22. cobbett
    This so called event is as I thought late morning a bust - nothing on the horizon apart from some activity in the Far East. Will be interesting to see what flak the metoffice get tomorrow !
  23. cobbett
    Exactly - expect a big post mortem tomorrow morning about why it all went wrong !
  24. cobbett
    Lol indeed - more north of course for us here
  25. cobbett
    I'm patient - but barely a single sferic in the UK all day and not many across the water isn't a good sign
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