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Everything posted by lawrenk
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Based on the mood in the main thread this morning it looks like we may need to hope for the best tonight and tomorrow! Personally, a NE “Kent/Medway streamer” works best for me. Jan 2010 was the best for that. Nothing beats that constant flow, with every shower topping up the snow from the last one.
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Have a great evening.
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Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
lawrenk replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I know what you mean but, to be honest, I just took that as their way of meaning more precipitation rather than the type. They also imply these battleground type scenarios are less likely than the cold staying in control. I agree with others that, that far out, that’s as good an outlook as you could realistically hope for. A clear upgrade on the last few days. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
lawrenk replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Don’t forget the “cold locked in for weeks as no route back for the Atlantic” classic. Usually the cue for the next run to show blow torch westerlies from the States to Siberia. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
lawrenk replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Should I let friends and family know yet? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
lawrenk replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All this talk of “displaced Bartlett’s” can’t help me thinking, at this time of the year, of Richard Attenborough on the run in The Great Escape…… -
Looking like we can pretty much write off December for any chance of the cold stuff down here. As far as I’m concerned that means a third of winter gone for what I would describe as “proper winter”. Yes, it can snow in March and even April but even the exceptional cold of the BFTE couldn’t keep it on the ground long for that late in the season, in my neck of the woods at least. I’d never be bold enough to say this on the main thread but, in my opinion, rare are the occasions that a proper cold spell comes along without the MO picking up on it first. Nov/Dec 10 is often quoted but I recall the MO long ranger picked that up from a long way out and remorselessly counted it down till it hit. Same with the BFTE I think.
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The MO long ranger makes pretty bleak viewing for virtually the whole of December down here, if it’s snow your after. For all it gets mocked on the main thread, I don’t tend to find it ends up being too far out. The ones that spring to mind are Nov/Dec 10 and the BFTE which it picked up pretty early and counted them down until they hit.
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Looking more like a bust for us, in terms of snow, during this cold period, though could still change I suppose. Don’t want to sound too glass half empty but I’m always a bit wary when people say “don’t worry, winters not even properly started yet, there’ll be plenty more chances”. Down here, it feels like we get less and less opportunities each year and that they need to produce when they do come along, not that the weather cares either way of course!
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Stunning day today. Got out for a walk with the dog, beautiful, sunny and crisp, exactly what you’d want this time of year. Not saying this is on the cards but I’d love another 09/10 winter. My favourite one from “recent times”, as, as I recall, we had a prolonged dry, bright and cold period before a proper snowy spell arrived in early January. Something like that’ll do just fine this winter.
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
lawrenk replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You’ve said it now. -
Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts
lawrenk replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Well that’s saved a lot of time looking at the models over the next few months. I look forward to hearing from you again in April with your Summer 24 forecast.