lawrenk

I can see parts of the high Weald tomorrow night/wed am doing pretty well, Crowborough, Heathfield etc. Look to be far enough south for the heavier stuff but enough inland with a bit of height to stay the right side or marginal. Hoping I might just about be OK where I am.

Snowman pics to follow?

Yes, we’re all keeping our fingers crossed.

Knowing our luck, low 1s’ NE limit will be St Peter’s Port, meaning we’ll be bone dry and low 2s’ will be Aberdeen, resulting in a rain fest.

My, non technical, prediction is that next week we will see a lot of “wasted” snow ie a fair amount falling but not a lot, if any, settling. Will be delighted to be wrong though and the MO 60% chance scenario keeps us in the game at least.

Still, at least Norwich are having a great season.

Quick “Eastbourne” chat Nick. Lots of talk earlier about snow struggling to stick this time of year. Were you in this neck of the woods beginning of April 2008, when we had several inches right down to the beach? East Dean road impassable for a few hours as I remember.

I think it’s shaping up that it will very much go down to the wire as to whether we share in the snow fun and games or just get cold miserable rain next week. It would be nice to have a “nailed on” scenario every now and then where there was no marginality at play but I guess, down here, it just doesn’t work out like that very often, especially this late in the season. My assumption is that in the early part of the week, when the air’s cold enough, there won’t be any precipitation around, and when it eventually does arrive the cold air will be mixed out too much. Expect the worst and be pleasantly surprised and all that!

Can anyone help point out where the M4 is please?

To those more knowledgeable than I, is this situation comparable to March 13, when we spent what felt like a week worrying where the rain/snow divide would be, only for the incoming low to be corrected so far south that it was Jersey and Guernsey that ended up getting buried?

Just a shame none of us will be out there to enjoy it. Oh well….

I struggle to keep up when the thread starts getting technical like this.

Spurs winning the League? Which is more likely do you reckon?

Crucial runs this weekend. Get in! I’ve always wanted to first getting that one in.

I wish you’d come off the fence in how you feel about the GFS.

Some excitement on the main thread over the most recent GFS run which unleashes the Beast big time next week. Looks a bit isolated against the other models but the good news is that I’m off to the Peak District for a week on the 10th, so it’s pretty much nailed on for a screaming easterly that buries us in the SE and leaves me bone dry up there.

Looking good then! I suppose it’s our own fault in setting unrealistic expectations. To hear some talk, it’s as if they imagine we live somewhere guaranteed for snow in winter, like Greece for example.

Pretty pants MO update it has to be said, though I suppose we should be grateful for a fairly prolonged drier spell. As a south coaster it feels like we’re down to the last 4 or 5 weeks now for a “proper” cold spell with snow both falling and sticking around. Yes, no problem with it falling well into March but even a BTFTE will struggle to avoid rapid melt during the day.

You’ve made your point.

A very happy Christmas to everyone. Just watching The Great Escape for the 127th time. One of these days Steve McQueen will jump that last god damn fence. The long range MO outlook is looking pretty bleak, it has to be said, so glad we got a decent snow event in earlier in the month.

Lots of doom and gloom on the main thread this morning. I refer back to my post yesterday and would add that it’s unusual the Met Office reference cold weather on their longest range outlook, so I suspect they’re seeing something that’s not yet apparent in the models we have access to. No doubt that’s the cue for the update to change for the worse today!

A surprisingly decent mid and long term MO update today I thought with the suggestion of something interesting mid January. Certainly not implying blow torch south westerlies.

Goodby snow. Was lovely seeing you, please don’t leave it as long next time.

One last walk this morning in a winter wonderland….

I agree. I’d give it at least a solid 7 out of 10 for our patch. To have more or less all the snow still on the ground 5 days on hasn’t happened here for a long time. Being greedy, would have been perfect to have had the snow cover continually increased by a convective north easterly but can’t complain really!