shuggee

Will have a look at the 12z NMM MOdel later to see the prospects for the east - and the north east. But stop being so greedy ZL - we've not had snow on the ground since Monday 4pm last week <_<

Well after the start of the backtrack with the 18z last night predicting far less ppn than before, and the tv forecasts showing little moving into eastern Scotland I'd lost all interest (again). But looking at the radar - hmmmm, interesting

With a current -12ºC at Tulloch Bridge and -4/-7ºC here in Edinburgh, here's today's new thread for current conditions and chat :wacko:

It's a great igloo! Good photos too Very jealous :o

12z GFS showing Tuesday to be of interest too - in the east: Low pressure over Kent: And precipitation type at the same time, midday: What an interesting week ahead!

You're all welcome. It's looking interesting :o Forgot to post the computer modelling of the precipitation type at midnight tomorrow night :o

It does look like a whopping front. Here's how the 12z GFS handles it: By 18h00 tomorrow here is the profile of the 850 temps and precipitation. Remember -5ºC and below at the height of the 850 temps (about 1500m up in the atmosphere) is an approximate yardstick for the difference between rain and snow: Now a focus 6 hours later at midnight Sun/Mon. Here's the 850s and precipitation again: So borderline for the central belt - better in the east than the west. And of course the likes of Fife/Stirling/Perth/Dundee looking good. Here's a different chart than I'd usually use to look at the ground temps. This is the average temp at midnight - a blend of the maximum and minimum temps at that time. Will be interesting to see how this verifies: And dew points (remember if it's zero or below than it's more likely snow). And now I'm poet too: So looking good for most of central Scotland there. Next is the zero degree isotherm (the height at which the air temp is at freezing point above the ground): Again around 100/200m in most central population centres. Borderline again for the west - better in the east and better still north of the Forth. Snow risk and snow level chart at midnight: Worth a look at the winds at midnight too. As you can see across Central Scotland, the area of low pressure seems to be smack in the middle of the Central Belt, say over the eastern suburbs of Glasgow. I'd suggest that if you are to the north and east of that the likelihood of seeing snow is increased than if you are to the south or west. Ideally for us in the Glasgow or Edinburgh areas - if the track of that low was, say, 50-100miles further south, this would be a much more confident forecast of snow for those two cities. Finally here's the 850 temps and precipitation for 12midday Monday: The cold air comes back over Scotland and there's still a hangover of precipitation (very likely snow) for The Kingdom, central eastern Highlands, Angus and Aberdeen. For me, the intensity of the precipitation will likely decide what is seen in the central belt tomorrow evening. As Mondy is showing with the satellite shots - this is a hefty front. I'm thinking that the precipitation amounts indicated on the GFS charts are underplaying the intensity and amount of what will actually fall. If I'm right - many more of us could see snow than I've indicated above

For those of us in the snow starved bubble of Berwick-upon-Tweed up the coast and round to the lowland Lothians and Eastern Central Scotland, apart from showers from the North Sea for the extreme east, it looks like it's all eyes now to Monday/Tues for anything of particular interest with an active Atlantic front moving over colliding with the cold air - before returning to these current conditions once again...

Nice. For an area of Scotland that seldom sees snow - it's good to know it's being shared about. Now just get some over here please

I saw a flake earlier sammie. My life is complete :lol:

From my viewpoint to the south of the city looking north - everything's now shrowded in a misty ppn - and I even just saw a couple of snow grains. It's arrived. I'm underwhelmed

What a classic I'm looking forward to a snow grain landing on my hat at the bus stop later.

Not really - it was always a late afternoon into the evening event for the Central Lowlands, with any more intense stuff around midnight.

Latest radar shot (today's only freebie ) - shows the front moving down now. The ppn over the highlands is fragmenting, yes, but at the same time what there is is heavier at the back edge

Yeah the front from the south won't come any further north than the midlands. Our chances for snow come from the ppn starting to move down over central Highland Scotland to our north, on a freshening northerly wind. As Sawel says it's reached Dundee - I'd expect Edinburgh to see something around 6pm.

I agree WX - the GFS in paricular has upgraded, since yesterday evening, the intensity and longevity of the precipitation over night - and with upper temps of -7ºC and surface at or below freezing in the central lowlands - it's all to play for A couple of charts from the NMM High Resolution model - again for 3am: Dew point (below freezing even at the coast in the central belt) And snow risk/precipitation and snow level - widely down to zero metres asl :ph34r:

Patience! The cold air is moving down and undercutting the front - slowly. It'll get it's act together this afternoon when winds pick up from the north... Interesting chart from the 06z GFS showing precipitation and upper air temps at 3am. As ever, with temps below -5ºC, the more wintry the precipitation. City centres could even be interesting: And the maximum temperatures (not minimums as I would usually post - trying to be realistic and worse-case-scenario here!) at the same time:

Coldest night of the season last night at -7º/-8ºC and the 34th air frost since 01 Dec 08.

Latest radar shows the southern extent of Scotland's ppn in a line from Arborath in the east to Inverary in the west - and it's not moved for hours. It's quite a constant block - if a wee bit light. Inverness getting snow yet?

Ahh - see what you mean. Yes the standard site rules apply. There's lots of talk about this in the Weather equipment section: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showforum=70 And here are the NOAA rules: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/standard.htm

What a great site sammie - thank you for that! The monthly minimum graph shows the air frosts nicely: http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/abs/Weathercam/station/month.html

Freezing point and below

It's been almost freakish I reckon. Tonight is our 34th air frost since Dec 1st out of 63 nights. Two -6ºCs and a -5ºC only last week - completely out of nowhere. Wonder how far it's going to drop in the early hours :blush:

I really can't say wib. You'll know more about your local climate than I do mate. The upper air temps are conducive to snow to low level all through to the weekend with -5s to -7ºCs at the 850hpa level - but as you say your local conditions might scupper that. I'd perhaps have thought that a strong wind and heavy precipitation would help though - watch out for those?

I think you should pl! I'm going out in town for a tapas meal tomorrow evening from work - and I fully expect to come out to moderate snow at 9pm