Chris.R

14-15 or 15-16?

Since I was 5 (in 2000), I can remember at least 15 good falls of snow, more than a dusting that is. 2005–06 - several falls of an inch or 2. 2007–08 - a few 1 inch falls. 2008-09 - again a couple of 1 inch falls. 2009–10 - 4 inches on Dec 23rd; several inches throughout January; one or two transient falls in February. 30th nov 2010 - 1 inch off in Easterly. 17th Dec 2010 - 11 inches, An evening never to be forgotten. 2013 - 3 inches on Jan 18th; 2 inches on Jan 25th (transient); some transient falls in February; two falls of 3 inches in March. Nothing like that since. Just the last 5 years that have been really bad here.

-6 after 15:00, -7 after 21:00.

Looking ahead to Saturday night: a chance of brief snow followed by ice pellets and/or rain, freezing rain inland.

Morning :-) -5 with some -6 in the afternoon, becoming all -6 by evening, -7 after midnight. Edit - actually looking again, -7s arrive after about 21:00, maybe a little earlier.

Backing W :-)

Not as much CAPE around this time but the flow is lighter so showers should be able to develop more before they hit land. Wind at the surface is also lighter so modification from the sea Will not get as far inland. -7 850s are with us from midnight until 9 AM tomorrow. That is our best chance.

Supposed to be a 5°C increase in temperature in the next hour. That’s going to be interesting. Gusts picking up every minute.

Rather windy now. Hope it’s not gonna keep me awake again.

I’ll post my thoughts tomorrow. :-)

That’s it now for here. Precipitation wasn’t heavy enough for long enough. Temp got down to 2.9°C. Slowly starting to rise again now. Wind increasing.

Very common, melted snowflakes I think that have still got some shape. A precursor to a change in precipitation type.

uppers are below zero until after 23:00. Chance of sleet and snow to low levels if heavy precipitation continues up until that point.

Very heavy rain now, temp tumbling 3.4°C

Hasn’t really been a cold spell here, last week was colder.

Agree with that. After all it’s only a reference of temperature at a specific level of the atmosphere, it’s not the be all and end all .

4.2°C, rain getting a little heavier.

Lucky sod!

Because for the next thew hours we have a surface wind off the land. The -5 for sno rule is only valid with the wind off the sea. Correct me if I’m wrong.

Which bit?

Wind not nearly as strong on Thursday night so maybe a better chance of snow showers to lower levels then. We get -7 850s over usfor longer than tuesday as well. Suggestion of another short-wave Friday on some models?

That doesn’t matter so much this evening but what happens tomorrow morning will be rain apart from high ground is wind is on-shore again.

Light rain, temp already falling, currently 4.7°C. Nothing heavy yet.

Not until after 23:00.

Any chance of snow to low levels will be between about 20:30 and 23:00.