Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

NickR

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by NickR

  1. NickR
    The MetO forecasts for 15-30 days change very frequently. I think you are being too bullish about how definite they are.
  2. NickR
    More to the point, Frosty, as 2013 showed, 28 February isn't a cut-off point beyond which there can be no snow and cold!
  3. NickR
    The ens for the 00z are out now, and they show a pretty good consistency. The operational is generally at or a bit below the mean.
  4. NickR
    I'm sheltered, especially from SW winds, but, even so, although it sounds rough, the gusts have only been to about 35mph here so far. Have had worse in recent years. Due to get worse later, though.
  5. NickR
    Eh? So you have to like all weather, including storms that may damage your property in order to be part of the "ideal user base for a weather forum". (And how does not liking strong winds amount to not liking anything but snow?) At best nonsense; at worst disrespectful.
  6. NickR
    Not really a surprise given what the models have been showing for some days now: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122306/6-289UK.GIF?21-6
  7. NickR
    xcweather.co.uk - look at the temps. That's all you need to tell you it's not from now.
  8. NickR
    http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/42-289UK.GIF?21-6 http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/45-289UK.GIF?21-6 http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122218/48-289UK.GIF?21-6
  9. NickR
    24th looks worse for us on the 18z. Gusts of 60-65mph from about 1 to 8pm.
  10. NickR
    Trees tend to do a lot of the damage in storms, either falling on cars, people, and buildings, or blocking roads and railway lines.
  11. NickR
    Remember that the trees were in pretty much full leaf for the St Jude's storm. That makes a big difference in terms of how damaging a storm is, even if the winds are stronger.
  12. NickR
    Of course. But that's not causing panic and isn't what posters have been saying. "we're going to get totalled" isn't the same as "don't leave your patio set loose outside".
  13. NickR
    That's exactly what several posters seem to be trying to do reading the posts on here.
  14. NickR
    Really? This isn't even the strongest winds or heaviest rain this year! Not by a long shot.
  15. NickR
    Nothing too bad TBH. Max gust here about 37mph. A minute or two of heavy rain but nothing particularly shocking.
  16. NickR
    GFS 06z seems to have the main risk of snow up here: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs393.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs394.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs398.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs423.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs424.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs428.gif
  17. NickR
    Gavin, it really is a waste of time looking at those ppn charts. Tonight's ones showing nothing no more mean there will be nothing than the ones you posted before mean there will be snow. It genuinely isn't worth even posting them unless they're 48 hrs out at most.
  18. NickR
    Only if people haven't learnt not to ramp it up or get carried away by ECM, thinking that slightly better verification stats means "always more correct". Oh, wait...
  19. NickR
    Just rain here. I'd be surprised if anyone not at high levels has seen anything but rain so far, though temp is falling a bit now.
  20. NickR
    The 4 GFS cycles compared: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/ Not much difference TBH at 5days. 00 and 12 slightly better.
  21. NickR
    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ These are comparingt he 0z runs of each. You can change it to the 12z... I don't have the link comparing different GFS runs. Overall ECM leads, with UKMO and GFS about level. At 10 days for the Northern Hemisphere, GFS is actually currently leading ECM on the 0z runs, though at that range statistics are not great for either, of course.
  22. NickR
    Any analysis of the value or reliability of anything - models or otherwise - cannot be based upon or said to be "proved" by one individual example. Come on, this is hardly controversial! I'm not saying the GFS is NOT flawed.. I'm just stating the fairly basic idea that saying "look, 2 runs, very different. QED" is meaningless. There is a reason that reliability is based on long-running verification statistics and not picking 2 particular successive runs alone.
  23. NickR
    Just to say that, if we're trying to work out how models perform, comparing 2 successive runs on one day is proof of absolutely nothing. We need to be more scientific and circumspect than that. :-)
  24. NickR
    Reading his posts, you'd think this was the Darlo thread, rather than the Far North thread.
  25. NickR
    It's almost as if you're posting without having bothered to read the countless posts replying to similar "but it's better now than before " posts. Surely no one can be that daft, though?
×
×
  • Create New...