Gordon Webb

met office think it'll be over eastern england this evening and eastern scotland by morning If it's the featuire your on about looks like the more convective element could be over the East and just more general rain over W certainly and possibly central areas too

I really hope nothing nasty has occured from that

GFS also has heavier rain based in that region more so late afternoon evening ties in with met amber warning

are you saying you'd like to see it happen but it won't

met off has put out amber warnings for e england / london SE can't get other details edit it's for Essex, Southend-on-Sea, Thurrock Issued at: 1301 on Thu 13 Aug 2015 Valid from: 1600 on Thu 13 Aug 2015 Valid to: 2100 on Thu 13 Aug 2015 After very heavy downpours this morning, a second cluster of torrential, thundery downpours is expected to move north across the area from late afternoon. The public should be prepared for the risk of flooding of roads and properties. Another pulse of thundery activity from France will extend across the area this afternoon and evening. The ground remains saturated from earlier heavy rain, and the high water loading in the atmosphere means that more than 30 mm in an hour or less could well occur locally

nothing surface based was never likely in the uk as it would require a very temperature to initate this more like to happen in france and germany the benelux countries which may affect the SE of england East anglia and the East coastal areas as stated by estofex

was forecast to weaken on its journey north I'm afraid

people should bear in mind that some on this thread and on the model thread did cast a little doubt on how widespread the thunder would be but saying that they would be some and the met office has covered itself but emphasising the complexity of the situation and even Nick F couldn't nail it down exactly as early as this morning so I think a little slack should be granted

that rain in the SE is expected to be weaker by the time it gets to me IF it gets to me at all of course i could with the rain just not the thunder

Nick F said it himself that the lightning activity and severe threat as it travels north will wane especially as it gets to the midlands area and as the heaviest rain is still over the channel and does seem to ease a little over land he seems to be correct , the SE is getting it nw and is due to get more of it this evening

well done

And I've emptied out my emergency hiding cupboard for not a lot it seems pfffff

some will be undoubtedly be dissappointed , this was called complex to forecast by the met office and even Nick F this morning does'nt know how far north the activity in the channel will get and that was less than 2 hours ago and that is expected to wane the further north one goes , looks the best of it could be on the south coast

depends when your chasing if it's this evening IF I had the nerve to chase I'd go further east there's plenty in the channel at the moment but that's expect to weaken as it moves north and there's even a question mark of how north it gets

taken at face value does'nt look as bad as could be

if you saw the bbc breakfast forecast they had only just reached oxfordshire by 4-5pm and the radar returns then were far from spectacular the rain band expected to form over the west and into scotland looked to have more on it for tomorrow

yep but the precipitation charts on that run are ot really that devastating apart the south coast and later the SE but that could be the system Carol K said move n over north sea coast this evening reminds me of a forecast a few years ago when all this was forecast day turned out to be cloudy and by the time the afternoons forecast were rolling in it was downgraded to such an extent it was only light rain now i'm not saying that this will happen today but a few posters on here and the model forum over the last few days have cast doubt on the amount of thunder associated with this even though they all said some is likely I just hope some are NOT let down again edited to add the word NOT

just saw the breakfast forecast with Carol K and she indicates that these storms will more north very very slowly only reaching the birmingham area by 5pm and be hit and miss at that then another another system moving north over the north sea this evening looking at that forecast and models the rain doesn't look particulary threatening even though I expect locally some will get heavy rain considering that the forecast for last night had rain over me by 8am this morning this is a serious change and I wouldn't get hopes of much sunshine as if there's no rain there's going to be a lot of cloud

More ingredients = better storms Remember too many cooks spoil the broth

Well gibby who posts on the model thread suggested something similar and in the met office warnings they indicated an area of rain which could be heavy and thundery at times they did however mentioned localised thunderstorms in the south and East on Friday afternoon as this is a developing situation I wouldn't take anything as nailed yet it could better or worse than forecast

don't think I've seen any thunder since sunday 5th July not that I'm complaining about it

pleased to see the days shorening always hated the long days and am much looking forward to the long nights

BBC breakfast suggested something over SE England and into parts of East Anglia overnight for those who are interested , as I'm no expert not sure how much truth there is to it

Yep Misery Loves Company

bloody hell and here's me missing it wonder if forking passes the profanity filter edit - yep it does looks a forking good storm