How many times do people need to be told NOT to take one run as gospel? Always look at the trend. Has the trend over the last few days signified milder weather? Not really. Should we be worried? Not really. There are some longterm members here that are already throwing in the towel, seemingly having developed short term memory loss since past Winters. The situation is incredibly fickle as ever!
What if, say, the GFS(P), UKMO & JMA all showed mild conditions but the ECM showed cold. Would those who are discounting the ECM at the moment, side with the mild solution? I'm not so sure. Don't discount that ECM run just yet.
To be honest Frosty Ground has a point. I do remember temperatures being around 6C during the day with an encroaching warm sector. Once that pulled through then cold air rapidly got sucked into the system and the 6C plummeted to 1-2C with upper atmosphere temps at aorund -4C. I remember it, I just can't remember when.
A lot of potential here for something quite lovely to develop
Just a comparison for a little tease is the chart for the same date in 1962. The vortex 50 years ago was much stronger!