karlos1983

It seems from the 00z that the warming is coming into the more reliable time frame now +180 GFS And then by +240 warming is well under way, And we end with this, which would do just nicely thanks

Yep nog fog on the coast, inland could be different. -0.6' making it my coldest night of winter, wow -0.6c and that's my winter 2013/14 record low, sums up winter so far really, here's to a cracker of a February

Very JMA esk don't you think.......

Well Frosty, for someone that posts GFS chart after GFS chart, it somewhat surprises me that you take what the met say as gold? Keep the faith mate, it ain't done yet!More to the point, the met are by no means saying winter is over, as stated by Ian.

Well my goodness, I got home from work and was greeted by my wife saying, I've got you aloud of flat pack stuff to build while I'm at work tonigh, and I'll be honest, that was more enjoyable than some of the posts I've read through in the last few pages. Do we never learn, or take note of some of the more knowledgable posters in here. One thing I have learnt while model watching the past few years as a learner myself, is that never trust one run from any model, await the ensembles, and even wait for the next run to see if it is trending, be it cold or otherwise, if you do that and try and take a balanced view from some of the experienced members of this forum, you will find the experience a lot less stressful. Some great posts in here tonight from the likes of Steve, Nick, Tamara, chionomaiac to name a few, but also some very testing ones, I wish I waited to look at the models until after I had caught up now, I would have pleasantly been surprised after the doom and gloom I've read lol

Pretty good agreement toward the end which is odd?

what a great read this is, I wish they would print this in the express http://weatherman79.wordpress.com/2014/01/19/winter-forecasting-the-broken-clock-conundrum/

My quest over the next couple of winters is to try and get a better understanding of the Strat.

Yep, doesn't look quite as good to my untrained eye in comparison to the 12z, but it is still there

not a great chart apart from it's in deep fl

Look forward to that update if it's available to us. Invaluable as always

Blocks to the east almost always out do the Atlantic onslaught predictions. No doubt the Atlantic will win out because of the strength of the PV, but a few surprises are in store i think.

Brilliant link, thanks

If it's not shown, don't bank on it lol Well it's been an emotional rollercoaster on here today, I'm off for a rest lol Back to see if the 18z GFS sorts the Pacific Ridge out later

is the PV finally going to bog off

Nice ridging at 168, not sure if this will end well tho

could it be that i have a no rain day............surely not

we have agreement from the ECM, right now onto the next

so can we get cross model agreement at +72 with the UKMO and GFS in pretty good agreement at that time frame GFS UKMO At least if the ECM agrees, we can start to look forward for the next frames and interest that might follow

Oh i reckon Frosty can find one, go on frosty dig one out mate here's my effort

I will lose the plot soon that's for sure

Let's not forget the MOGREPS, could it be that....? Maybe Ian will be in and can comment.As well as the UKMO from 00z and the ENS as mentioned by Steve. So there are signs to say it's certainly a plausible outcome.

Mini ramp from Alex Deakin that cold wether could reach us by the end if the week. More in the weeks forecast at 1:10pm. Might have to watch that. The fact he mentions it, must mean it Carries some weight.?...

Indeed, but importantly not over West Greenland/canada. Caveat being it's in deepest fl, but it's there so I'll mention it!

In the Style of Barry Scott Bang and the PV's gone!