karlos1983

Well I missed all the runs this afternoon, got home about an hour ago, straight to the models,I have to say, nothing really shocks me from the output today, Part of me expected to see a lot worse, with complete agreement. Interesting read over at least 15 pages, always fun! So to brake that down is quite easy. 1)yes things are worse, in terms of really only the UKMO, however, in the short term the ECM seems better 2) Agreement..... certainly not, we need yet more runs, I thought this would be done and dusted tonight, not so. Finally, nothing "mild" showing in the output, looks like many will see snow this week, the most widespread cold and snowy setup of winter so far, with plenty of potential going forward.

It's in the balance actually, v possible

GEFS P4,8,12 & 19 are my picks at +108 for cold next week and further down the line, with potential battleground scenarios galore. None of the P1-20 are what I would call mild from it's 06z.

+120 from the 00z on the 20th Jan, are pretty impressive across the board really, below GFS, UKMO, ECM Reality 00z 25th Jan UKMO probably just nudges it again on verification. so the signs are good perhaps.

I think it's fair to say that the GFS can't be that bad, after all, the majority of members(imo) on here still view it with every run after the UKMO/ECM, and the JMA wouldn't be getting a look in if it wasn't showing cold arriving next week. It get's it's bad name from these blocking scenarios where it is historically bad, but in a run of the mill zonal flow, it's pretty good if you take the 00z and 12z runs. Especially this winter. I really can't see this not being sorted one way or t'other this evening or certainly more agreement, as the key issues are in what should really be the reliable time frame now. should we dismiss this?

It will be some coup for sure, just not convinced personally. It's not like the GFS has just had a blip, it's be pushing slightly further east almost every run, which is a concern, especially as the ECM has dropped the UKMO signal somewhat as well. Interesting nonetheless

So no clearer then .....

GFS 222nd 00z UKMO 22nd 00z ECM 22nd 00z Reality ECM today 00z UKMO 1st, ECM a close 2nd, GFS a clear 3rd by the looks of it.

Hi ba, perhaps I'm being really dumb here, but that seems a conflicting statement, is the ECM higher res or the UKMO? Cheers EDIT: I get it now, was indeed being dumb.

Any thoughts on the ECM ENS? Looks like it supports the op to me?

Well starting to pick up our sniff of the good stuff on the Euro4 now Precip DP ok'ish. Beginning to accumulate in favoured spots So looking good in terms of seasonal weather to be had for some at least! Who knows maybe the odd surprise for others.

yes Dad can i take a drink..

yes, it seems to have steam rolled out of control in here today with the ramping, swaying expectations to unrealistic really. snow was never really on the cards for me due to location(apart from maybe a flake in the rain on Monday morning), but I really don't care about that, just fascinating output right now, snow and deep cold for me would just be a bonus. Certainly somewhere is going to get a good dumping next week, and more opportunities lay ahead, I'm convinced of that now. Few puzzle pieces falling in place for me this winter thanks to you lot, i.e. studying the ensembles, importance of the pattern upstream etc. so hopefully, although a frustrating winter, a fruitful one for me educationally. There would be some serious cold nights from that set up, look at the lines all the way from the canaries to Alaska, shame about the caveat.....

Must be said they are both at the top end of mild though, and as Captain SW staes, they begin blimmin cold

Yes,they don't paint a pretty picture actually

London

Wow, quite a read the past 10 pages, some fantastic posts, and some showing some clear anxiety about the events for next week. Personally I'm sticking with the ukmo on this one, why? Because IMO the ukmo has modelled the last week or so better than any of the other models (ECM,GFS). I've lost a lot of faith in the ECM op this winter, seems at times even the the GFS has outdone it, perhaps because of the zonal slaughter we have endured(must stress I'm talking 00z & 12z). When we have had the sniff of an easterly, the ECM has failed! Very impressed with the solid runs from ukmo since this potential cold spell was picked up, in terms of bringing the cold in. Just my opinion, a great 40 min read due to all the great posts, I very much doubt there is a better forum weather wise when the weather is interesting, especially cold, down to all you lot who are as nuts as I am about the weather!

I would say the UKMO is solid looking at the +96 that is available so far. what a tease, and of all the days to do it. filling and heading off SE quicker than the GEM at the same time frame.

Yes very odd GEM, we appear to be spawning Low pressure after low pressure over the uk at the end of the run.

Very ermmm ......Blocky. adios Canadian Vortex UKMO at +42

UKMO is teasing us big time here, stuck on 06......

So do we want Cold from the East or cold from a warm Atlantic.....Thunder snow machine......which appears to be sliding off SE

I think if the Models still show the theme continuing on the 12z, with ensemble backup, we don't have anything to worry about until the next run. The data we have available to us, if consistent across the big three models, can't be far off the mark. Today's 12z is going to be an important output this afternoon, if the MOGREPS says different, not much point worrying about something we don't get to see. As far as I'm concerned, nothing has changed since this mornings runs, so we are still in the same position as we were at 11am, apart from maybe a bit of anxiety setting in, understandably.

Like AWD says, I think we need to see a few more runs showing the same theme, or better before we can get excited about the white stuff. One thing for sure, despite what has been put on the Met outlook etc (not that it is negative), there has been no downgrade since this mornings runs as yet, just a bit of anxiety in the forums, perhaps getting mixed messages from over ramping, met outlook and IMBY'ism. Next clue's to be given in the next couple of hours when the 12z roll out. Fascinating stuff and by far our best shot so far this winter for anything seasonal/cold. I wouldn't rule anything out as yet!

just the 4.3mm for me so far. be interesting to see if it intensifies as predicted later on,if it doesn't then it is a complete FAIL. bodes well for the near future if you ask me