karlos1983

Lol westerly from the Carribean to Russia, good effort

Yep my bad! Should know better than to comment on an unfinished run

GFS(P) is UGLY!

441 very confused Model thread users and counting.. Not 1 of them is going to be any clearer today or even tomorrow in my opinion. EPIC

Well the UKMO looks interesting at 144, ECM Mean develops quite nicely............ still!! @216 As do a number of the GEFS Purbs for example P13 plus whatever extra they see that we don't, so potential is definitely there IMO.......

ECM Mean would disagree with you..... big time December and cold..... not January

Well well well, encouraging

It's frustrating viewing indeed, I await to see what the ensembles show, but from my own experiences of these situations, when they show pretty much cross model back track agreement, we don't generally see them flip back again, so as much as I admire some peoples optimism, I just cant see it. The ECM went wrong way before the 216 chart, so how we expect it to get to the Beaut of a chart at 244 is beyond me, it's nice to see and all that, but i wont be taken down that path, or tomorrow morning I'm liable to be in a massively bad mood when it is no longer there! Yes it could change back, but reality and past experiences tell me it wont. That said, with the Strat taking a battering, more opportunities will come, it's going to be a big test of patience that's all. Cheers :smiliz23:

Well the Met have been proved to be wrong on many occasions and are always the last to join the party and let the public know its going to be cold/wintry. But they have to be pretty certain when they come out with such statements as it feeds straight into the public domain! They probably find it far easier to sit on the fence this far out and give a broad brush average kind of outlook. What they say isn't the gospel, or we wouldn't be here! And that is no disrespect to Ian F. The fact is that the models available for us to see are all trending to something Colder and more blocked, which I personally am enjoying viewing ALOT!

Come on Scandi!!

GFS (P) could be very good in deep Fl Get the Shorts out in West Greenland, nice bit of WAA

Well you weren't wrong, what a mess that turned out to be.

I think judging by the amount of times you posted that, you could well be going mad

Yes you are, I watch from behind the sofa

I presume this was tongue in cheek TonyH? with 9519 posts, I'm convinced you will have seen enough failed attempts to know full well it's far from nailed on!

I think the key here is about trends, so as you say, simply disregarding any run would be incorrect, and at the same time, some runs will show deeper cold than others so taking any one run as assurance is also not advisable, especially with the time-scales we are looking at. but as long as the overall trend continues, we should all be pretty happy with the output, the trend in my eyes from what I have seen from the models over the last 24 hours or so is definitely a trend to colder conditions the other side of Christmas, just how cold and how fruitful remains to be seen. All great viewing in any case.

Well if we could have an event like that when I'm alive please weather Gods! We almost had one the year before last, but the darn Channel ISlands and France took our Channel low!

You should put your CV into the daily express with quotes like that. Promising charts but 3 feet in southern England.... I wish!

Bank please GEM is non to shabby either

I have more faith in Arsene Wenger, and that says a lot really for the CFS..... none of it good

Actually that has cropped up on a few of the last runs for Christmas Day or there abouts. Who knows could be a trend. We like trends!

Well I'm pretty tempted to venture out in the small hours, perfect wind direction for overlapping at Shore road Sandbanks! Can't post my graphic for some reason? Maybe because it's a Netweather extra chart? Straight from the South west anyway, gust to 60mph possibly 70.

Nice ECM this morning, heights over NE Canada, definitely has potential! However I'd like to bank the GFS(P) for Christmas day, Seasonal indeed!

westward march from the 06z to the 12z on the 850's GFS(P) 06z 12z

Well that makes it a better winter so far already than last year...... and it's not even winter yet!!