karlos1983

Liking the curve of the 528 line all the way to the south Coast, happy days

GFS has a stubborn side apparently. I'll be dammed.

Perhaps you should be commenting in the Regionals mate as your last 2 posts have been very IMBY

That was a Scandinavia high with strong PV, different animal, and very possible.

I agree it shouldn't be ignored, it's a legitimate model, so it can't be dismissed, but it would need more support than it's getting currently to worry me. Personally

oh god, just a 23 year wait then (tongue in cheek)

That'll be 3 models showing an easterly and or an attempt at a Height rise to the NE.. Trends our friend

My bet would be we end up with heights rising over Scandi. I've seen it pop up a few times now, in fact the GFS(P) has hinted at it on it's last 2 consecutive runs, just a little trend to keep an eye on. The UKMO also wants to build heights over us, but that could easily evolve I certainly don't expect raging south westerlies in the near future. GFS(P) Height rise examples as mentioned UKMO at +144 Wouldn't take much to get the same sort of Heights over Scandi that the GFS(P) suggests fro this chart.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1007&ech=120&archive=0 I wouldn't go and put a bet on at the bookies if I were you on the GFS.

GFS(P) trying it's very best!

:smiliz23:

It's bigger sister appears to be following the same route UKMO sticks to it's guns Also shows better heights to the North of the UK, I know who my money is on..

That's an unexpected development.. doesn't appear to be phasing as previously modelled? Or I could be a tad premature. I'll hush for a few frames me thinks

Dam it, cheers BA, I've removed my post. Will try again tomorrow perhaps...

With charts like this, to say it is a North of Oxford snow event only is probably a tad premature. This I believe will very much come down to now casting. Although I'm sure the M4 will work it's magic for anyone south of it above image taken from www.weatheronline.co.uk After re-reading your post, I realise you weren't actually making a forecast, , but my point still stands, that anything really could happen from this system, especially as the exact track is not even nailed yet.

Ok good because my refresh button has just broke

Just light humour fg Good job I'm all grown up and don't take things to heart

can somebody please press the go button on the UKMO+144

oh for the love of god, wtflip about as consistent as my beloved Arsenal

his server is probably mounted on the garden fence at the moment,

Good

Not sure what charts your looking at, think maybe if you step back and take a non cold bias look, you will realise that from tonight's output things don't look great. Could change come tomorrow, but right now, UKMO and ECM are not good for prolonged cold

If you look at when it exits the east coast its negatively tilted, it wouldn't get in as quickly as shown in the 06z. Purely conjecture anyway that far out, but one to watch as it is feasible.Jet heading south

I would say if heights rise To out NE as shown on the 06z, the Atlantic won't get in that quickly and we would likely see any lows slipping under the block. Imo