karlos1983

I would say he means the Strat vortex appears to be displaced due to recent warming. But I think you know that.

I know it's many moons away, but just for fun, what a chart this is, low get ready to slide under the block, yummy

And what's that heading in the direction of the channel from the south west !!

Oh I think it might be coming Couldn't agree more, extreme weather in all its glory!

Like this!

That low still very much evident in the 06z at 144. Great example of rapid cyclogenesis

Going by Ian F tweets the Met are giving it a lot of attention. Not going to copy his tweet in here, I'm sure he will pop in at some point.

Well onto the next then. Let's hope Jan 2015 can give us better luck. Would really like to see the continent cool down for a sustained period. Although I'm not sure my nerves could handle an easterly week of model watching

I bet the Express or the prat that writes for them can't wait to jump on this!

Personally I would love for that chart to verify. extreme weather is right up my alley, blizzards would be a bonus!

Cheers ba, that probably makes my previous post (which I wrote before seeing your reply) a bit redundant then if there is uncertainty at D6 up there.

Looking through the GEFS Purbs, what is clear to me is that a deep low is pretty much nailed to be near or over the UK at 144 or thereabouts. All but 3 Purbs at 144 show this. UKMO also agrees

Never understood those charts....

Oh my days, could we have just 2 consecutive models going down the same route, this is beyond frustrating. 24 hours away from the models for me I think......well, I'm gonna try

Great now I have to get the dictionary out. Someone save me the effort.Cheers backtrack I'm glad I didn't bother, none the wiser lol

I must have missed that, I'd have happily walked that to the Bank! 10cm snow across Southern England on X-mas day.

Mean backs the op up for a change on the ECM. Shock horror

To me and my untrained eye, it's not quite a climbdiwn from the ECM, but I woujdnt mind betting the GFS and the ECM move toward each other in the morning. To be honest it's really irrelevant and why people are getting so worked up about whether it has climbed down or not is mind blowing. it's all extremely fascinating to watch unfold, it doesn't really merit pathetic sniping. But maybe that's just me.

. I like the way you put it.. But at the range it's been Model'd at reg the Greenland High it was always going to be false no matter what it shows. :smiliz19:

SSW doesn't gaurantee cold for the UK though, just significantly increases the chances as it promotes Northern BlockingBA I know you know this, just adding

Well we never actually had them though did we... They were falsely modelled.

I'm going to approach that GFS(P) run with extreme caution. It's not even supposed to be here.

Yes but the grown up of the GFS, (P) has seen sense! :-/ there I was thinking it was having the weekend off.

Oh I'm not sure about that. There have been more cold runs than mild over the past few days. With last winters disappointment (not for me, I enjoyed the storms) I can understand the frustration of some, with it being Christmas, that's enhanced the disappointment. For me, I'll be pretty happy if the ECM is proved correct, as I'll always struggle to have faith in the GFS, it would be worrying if the ECM got this all wrong, got the feeling we will be seeing eye watering charts from the ECM in January, and I for one want to have faith in charts out to 144, which really only the ECM is capable of historically.

Looks identical to me out to 120