karlos1983

Further warming in the Greenland locale showing on the 06z at 10hpa normal caveats etc, but one to watch perhaps

Speak for yourself, I'm talking about a UK wide cold spell, not a North or elevation event.And again March won't deliver in the South, maybe once in couple of decades, but not often. Maybe for your backyard

Now now, I lost that hat and I'm most upset about it!

Well fantasy is probably the best you'll get this winter, writing is on the wall and I'll eat my own hat if we end up with decent cold spell.

D'oh Yes I'm seeing it a lot now. Oops

I've personally not seen white on the 850's anywhere in my model watching time, never mind N America.

So after all it looks very much like the Met winter forecast is going to be correct, over the signs and signals that many thought would Bring us a cold heart of winter. Yes 6 weeks left etc, but there is very little in the output to suggest a cold spell is even close. Northerly/north easterly that was showing on GFS has now gone, the Strat warming fades away with nothing showing in the depths of the low res. PM flow won't bring widespread snow/ice days. I just can't see where deep cold is going to come from now. Please if you do, then enlighten me. In some ways, this has been more frustrating than last winter. At lest we had some decent storms to entertain us.

Wow look at the moon southerners, big halo around it. My pic does it no justice

A) it doesn't last very long and B) we won't really know what's going on (or have a better idea at least to make an educated prediction), until the EC sorts it's life out! strart server wise.

I'd be amazed if it differs massively from the GFS as that has been fairly consistent with each run with the warming over Greenland being a fairly short lived affair. I live in hope though. As ba mentioned, it's not likely to be until Monday now that we see it back up properly, which is really frustrating!

relative post for Mod thread I think by Tyfelin(Hope you don't mind) to lighten the mood maybe, from the strat thread this morning. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-55#entry3104905

I've replied to Chris Fawkes tweet and asked if he is looking at something we don't get to see, but I got a fluffy answer with a link to the ECM charts we all know and look at daily. But from his reply I can only presume he is looking the very same as we all do. confused.com

ECM is stuck on the 12z from yesterday on meteociel?

I think patience is the key for the turn of the year. It is fairly clear for all to see that we will be influenced now by a predominately Westerly flow with some PM incursions, on a personal note, never really any good for my neck of the woods, just cold and wet as opposed to warm and wet/windy. But with what is going on in the Strat, things can change pretty quickly. It will be tough viewing the Models for the next 10 days at least IMO, but reading between the lines, as we enter the second part of January the general feeling is things could well change pretty quickly. Or at least I hope it will, as I'm not sure how many more attempts we will get away with for deep cold to produce for the UK as a whole. Couple of years ago the north got battered with snow, whilst the south missed out all together, as we head into the later stages of winter it becomes increasingly difficult to get deep cold this far south from past experiences. Here's to a cracking New Year hopefully

Surely the ground temps can't be that cold at the moment for any snow to hang around for days?

If I don't stop eating and drinking, there's a good chance I'll sleep straight through any snowy this rate

Lol good for you

It's still M4 north. Always the flipping way. I swear I'm going to relocate that motorway to the channel one of these days.

BA BLIMMiN HUMBUG models, tut tut. I'm going to have to get drunk now!

Merry Christmas everyone. Love this forum, learnt so much over the past few winters. The weather is a passion of mine, but outside of this forum its deemed as geeky and nobody gets it. So cheers everyone I hope you all have a great day. Karlos

few hundred miles further south and I'd be happy

could be wrong, but it looks like to much energy going over the block rather than under to hold up the heights over Scandinavia on this run.

Thought I would have a look out of interest at the ECM Mean for the last 4 00z out puts for the 31st. If you take a look, what is clear in terms of "trend", is that where heights were shown as being to our south on the run from the 21st for the 31st December, with each run that has passed, the heights have transferred to the NE. Let's hope this trend continues. Sorry if it seems an odd thing to do, but I thought it would highlight the current situation and where we may go more importantly, especially with what the GFS has been chucking out on it's venture to the pub last night! 21st D10 22nd D9 23rd D8 24th D7

sifting through the GEFS Purbs, looks like the signal is still very much there for Height's to the East/North East. Some looking pretty tasty. That's the last one from me today, I'm off to Scarborough

I refuse to get remotely excited about an easterly shown on one run from the GFS. It has my attention don't get me wrong, but it's flipped completely in the space of 6 hours! A pub run classic for now, to be continued, just don't expect to wake up at 6am to those same charts, because if they are still there I'll drive to Scarborough and skinny dip myself.