karlos1983

I must confess I was not expecting this from the UKMO @144, especially given the very slim chance given by Exeter of an Easterly of sorts verifying. But we have seen this now pop up more than once and now on all Models, GFS, UKMO and ECM. Be interested to know if it is still in the 10-15% bracket, the Maths just don't add up to me. Well aware they have considerably more data than we do, I'm just commenting on what is showing on the data that we have access to.

so GFS is coming kicking and screaming then, as eluded before it never makes big jumps, slowly slowly moving to the ECM of yesterday. Will the ECM agree this evening, more importantly, will the UKMO @+144...

If I don't see a purb showing what could happen from the GFS Frosty tonight, I think I speak for most, we will be disappointed, if anyone can find us cold, it's you!! Chin up, it's all to play for

I really don't know why I watch the low res GFS, it just blows that block away with a big 960mb LP.

If I was a betting man, this will be branded an outlier later, but lovely viewing. Who knows, if it wasn't a possibility it wouldn't be shown

I disagree, UKMO at 144 ECM at 144 Not massively different

Oh heavens above, look at 192 As others have said, shame about the uppers, although I'm sure those in the NE would disagree

Another shift west and it's game on again with that chart surely?

Well well well, I wonder if this is now more than 10-15%

Just to clear something up, I asked Ian F on Twitter and he said MOGREPS never really went for the easterly at all. Thanks for the reply Ian, saves speculating

So I guess on the past few comments then that MOGREPS is the be all and end all, and can never be wrong, we in fact may as well stop model watching completely and wait for MOGREPS updates from those in the know............. Sounds like fun.....but seriously people

So now the energy is all going over the top? this run has me very confused

Have to agree with you, since mid week the models have been backing down each day, with the odd little movement back only to be reversed in the very next run. IMO the trend since mid week has been to move away from the prospect of deep cold in the close range, which was modeled to be as early as Monday if I recall correctly. So probably needing some more patience and hopefully another stab towards the end of the month. Winter is by no means over, we still have the best part of 3 months to run going by last year. But I really can't see the models swinging back to cold now, as much as it pains me to say it! either way, it has been fantastic viewing, we have really endured a tough winter so far in here, at least we have some interest.

this is much better, shame it's not the 12z, but I'll take it!

8.6mm here today,bringing my Jan total to 130.2mm, next week not looking good at all on current output for drying up. We really needed that Easterly for more reason than one.

Bizarre stuff, I can only think it is down to the jet digging all the way down to Africa, rather than of to the east, which just lets that Low hang out with nothing to steer it. Probably wrong, but that's all that makes logical sense to me.

Who posted that JasonT?

Yet only a few days before that we couldn't have seen coming what we are seeing in the output today.. It's encouraging in my eyes that we are seeing a shift west on the 12z GFS, rather than East. If we see small changes like that on each run until this time tomorrow, small changes can make a big difference. Anyway, I wait the UKMO and ECM. but I feel this will not be concluded today!

Heights look better to me at +66 to the NE All eyes on the jet for me and how far south it digs!

I would keep the sledge right at the back of the shed if I were you, unless your off to the alps that is...

Anyone having problems with meteociel? Can't load it

Indeed, not much clarification there. sure is going to make for some great viewing, much welcomed after the past few weeks

YIKES

Waiting with baited breathe for the UKMO +120, could still deliver here from it's +96 chart

concur