karlos1983

You cannot be serious? Take a look at the ECM, which has been pointing toward the possibility of an Easterly for a couple of runs now. Then there are the GEFS, look at P2 P6 Among others. The signs are there, you can't simply write off what is being shown?

Is that Heights I see Building to the NE........

Further downgrade from the UKMO 12z +60 +72 +96 Be interesting to see what the ECM has to say!

It has been discussed at length in the past few days, It has upgraded and indeed downgraded with almost every run. Now we are in the more reliable time frame, most agree now that it will just be a quick blast, then after the potential of an Easterly. I'm sure the Regional for your area will be busy with anticipation, but for most, its a case of eyes down and where do we go from her? South westerlies or the hunt for the golden Easterly. Even if the Easterly verifies down to the reliable time frame, we will allbe looking ahead to see how prolonged it may or may not be. That does generally tend to be how it goes in the Mod discussion thread, especially as the Models (GFS) roll all the way out to +384.

It certainly keeps popping up as an option though (Easterly)! Blimmin hard to get in properly though, last year was agonizingly close, only to be scuppered by a pesky sw. This year is surely our year, the North got pounded last year for weeks!! I want drifts up to my gutter photos from Cornwall to Hampshire, even the Channel islands got plastered when they and the french nicked our channel low!

Beggining to lose a bit of faith in the ECM now. That's twice in a short period that's it's been off the mark, now it's going for a Scandi High, and we are not far off a year since it failed big time on an easterly. I will be waiting for UKMO to join that party before I even begin to get interested.

Hi Crew, It's basically WAA but over NW of Scandi, is that correct?

Certainly cold at +120

Interesting that neither the GEM or GFS are interested really from the 00z. So do they perhaps have a better handle of what is going on over the other side if the pond, which ultimately will impact the Cold spell next week. ECM and UKMO being European models perhaps not getting a proper handle of the situation. I guess the same could be argued as the situation develops closer to home?

Ah ok, cheers Nick. ðŸ‘

Looking at the UKMO at +72 and +144, the PV seems to be moving East. Or am I reading that wrong?

Hmm, I live on the south coast and I think that Northerly would deliver pretty much everywhere on the ECM. Although Easterlies tend to be a better setup for Southern England I agree. But I'll take a Northerly if that's all that's on offer, especially the northerly blast shown by the last couple of ECM's outputs.

quite big differences between the GFS and UKMO come Wednesday 13:00, which convinces me this is a mild outlier from the GFS GFS UKMO Just my opinion of course

Fully aware of that, but we jump on it if it is Fl and it shows cold. Just showing what a huge difference the 06z and 12z are showing in the same time frame, not saying it will verify like either of them.

we've gone from this to this In the space of 6 hours. Fantastic! Not a pretty Fl, PV right where we don't want it. Hopefully we see this as an outlier.

Current GFS rolling out doesn't agree, hopefully not a trend setter

Oh just realized my 1000th post was not YAY ITS SNOWMAGEDDON, darn it!

that's done it

The Met office updates change quite often. Just because they change there outlook, it doesn't change what the models are showing right now for that time frame, consistently over recent runs. After all that is why we are all here,to review the current output. Currently both GFS and ECM going for cold. Longevity is in question for sure, but more runs will give us a better idea of that. Cheers Karl

The current output suggest it could be a tad chilly, Northerly looking quite possible, the last 3 or 4 runs showing the same thing. Interest is from 6th December, longevity is in question at the moment. It could be a 3 day snap, but there is talk that it *could* bring about a North Easterly flow and something a bit more prolonged. but many hurdles to jump before we can start talking about that. Certainly looking like a good start to the winter on current output, at the moment.

Incredible pub run, I almost don't want to look in the morning, I'll be amazed if it still looks like that on the 0z, but here's to hoping! Would be dry in my location as is usually the case with Northerly/north westerlies, but it would feel raw with some penetrating frosts I'd imagine

Personally I'm pretty happy with these charts Baring in mind it is the first week of Winter Proper, things could be a lot worse. I'll take a cold snap thanks. Yes I would prefer sustained cold, but that's not likely yet based on recent models as many have already pointed out. Crikey I dread to think how tense it will be in here if we get a sniff of a Beasterly in the coming winter weeks/months,I fear complete meltdown lol

This Madden Chap is what can only be described as an irritant, like the warnings you see on the back of some chemicals!! Completely sensationalizes our winter, and charges people for the privilege. The amount of friends of mine, that know I take a keen interest in the weather, keep saying oh have you seen the daily express today, I instantly tell them they are better off licking the end of their finger, poking it in the air and guessing what the weather will be like this winter, rather than reading that dribble. Anyway, rant over, nice layer of frost on the car, shed and garages this morning. Currently beautifully sunny outside, none to warm though.

Anyway, it certainly isn't looking great for coldies for the foreseeable, but as we saw with the Atlantic onslaught in October and early November, it will come to an end at some point, who knows what the models might be showing in 3 or 4 days, I'll be glued to them that's for sure.

Reports of snow in Hampshire. Settling on cars etc. Upland Hampshire is imagine. (BBC South source)