Snowshine

I really hope the storms head further East than the latest BBC forecast says so. It makes no sense though - all the warnings are for the South and South East of the reigon (e.g. Estofex)

Interesting storm forecasts for tomorrow. 1) Convective Weather Rapid warm air advection will develop across southern Britain through the evening hours, causing surface dewpoints to increase as a warm front lifts northwards. Meanwhile, the Atlantic upper trough will pivot NEwards, overlapping with the arrival of this plume during the evening, and providing sufficient lift. Consequently, expect thunderstorms to develop through the evening hours, initially fairly well-scattered across SW England, with activity expanding farther N and E as the evening progresses. With the approaching trough, DLS will strengthen with favourably-backed surface winds. This combined with 800-1,200 Jkg-1 MLCAPE suggests the potential for storms to become organised, perhaps into supercells capable of producing large hail. Forecast profiles suggest most storms will be elevated above 700mb, thus limiting the tornado risk, but if any storms do become rooted within the boundary layer, then there would be the risk of a tornado developing. There exists some uncertainty with developments farther east, namely across SE England and the Channel Isles. Capping may be too strong or upper forcing not strong enough to generate storms here (as per consistent signals in EURO4/UKV/ECMWF) while GFS is more keen to develop storms over northern France and run them northwards into CS/SE England. Given these uncertainties have opted to go for the general consensus for now (hence reducing probabilities towards the SE, the MDT placed where best agreement exists amongst most models) but cater for the risk of large hail and heavy rain (given PWAT 35-40mm) as the primary threats with any strong storms that may develop in central and southern Britain. In either case, mass ascent will see storms become more numerous as instability axis moves north, merging into an area of thundery rain and eventually losing most lightning activity during the early hours of Saturday as instability weakens and clears eastwards to the North Sea. It is likely that this forecast will need updating during Friday with threat level areas tweaked depending on convective trends. Have also included Ireland in a SLGT for activity that may occur largely in the post-frontal environment towards the end of the night with some marginal instability present. 2) Estofex A level 1 was issued for a greater part of Northern and Western France and the Southern United Kingdom for large hail and extreme precipitation. Elevated convection should move in from the south during the late evening and after midnight. There is a small risk of large hail and extreme precipitation with these storms. 3) Metcheck Following a brief cooler period, another hot and increasingly humid airmass is expected to spread up from western Europe across England and Wales during Friday night and early on Saturday. With this airmass will come an increasing risk of thunderstorms developing during Friday night which could turn severe in places bringing torrential rainfall, large hail, gusty winds and a small chance of an isolated tornado but it is important to stress that many places will miss the storms altogether. However where any storms do occur, rainfall totals of over an inch in an hour could bring a risk of localised flash flooding, especially in areas where it has been very dry recently with C-G strikes an additional hazard. This Weather Watch will be updated as developments become clearer with uncertainties currently existing over timings and areas most at risk. The convective weather (1) forecast seems promising to those in the south and Midlands (such as myself). Estofex (2) less promising though. Netweather/TORRO yet to issue forecasts if applicable.

Next week - Boring weather

The West Midlands always seems to miss storms though.

Just realised that Lerwick (Shetland) has had more thunderstorms than my area has this year, and I am supposed to expect a minimum of 10 days of thunderdays.

The channel is killing those storms... one by one.

Well I'm back in the NSC. What a surprise!

Most of us are in the 'SLGT' convective warning zone today.

Estofex forecast for tommorow: Quite dissapointing really, not much chance of anything notable tommorow. Best event due on Friday night now

The North was obviously the hotspot for storms today - then again, I suppose those in Scotland deserve a good storm since they seem to be a rarity over there. As for the South, I got less than I expected, in fact nothing stormy - but most of Central/Eastern England didn't anyway. July always seems to be a good month for storms - last year being a great example. I suppose this is only day one, so there absolutely should be more to come for us in the South. Who knows, maybe another plume later in the month! Having said that, this year so far has been a disappointment - nothing in Spring and barely anything in June.

To conclude, today was extremely dissapointing storm-wise. Although we did hit a maximum of 33C today - not a record breaker here although only just behind. The potential for storms was there - the CAPE/LI was extremely high, but nothing came. Thursday or Friday had better make up for this lack of storms.

Dont depend on it. Everything is starting North from where we are. It's a shame, cause storms were forecast for my area.

Guessing your in Newcaste, not Leamington.

Ugh... Why are storms so random.

No graphics on Midlands Today when Shefali gave the weather in Kenilworth. Guessing it was a technical hitch because they always have them and she was standing to the left.

Its disappointing, considering the potential today was great for mega storms BUT the day has not yet ended.

It is a 'very low' risk, high impact yellow warning. This would mean: Some areas outside the warning zone the UK is likely to be at a very low risk, and lesser impact resulting in no warning. Q

Sunny and 34C here in Warwickshire - feels even higher than that though (37C). I'm quite surprised it hasn't been overcast today - although I can't stay outside for longer than a few minutes in the sun. Hopefully storms will end today.

Nothing much except 33C temperatures here... was hopeful of some severe isolated storms, but looks as if the far North will get most.

Why do I have a feeling that the Midlands may be one of the few areas not to get anything...

Not much going on at the moment - hopefully not for long though. What an amazing morning! Sun is out, already 23C.

The Midlands may just avoid every storm this week! What a surprise. But it may surprise us and get all the storms!

BBC issued their 'week ahead' forecast. There is only a small chance of storms next week - that being if the low shifts south. I feel like the storm potential has been downgraded - not much to expect on Wednesday or Friday.

Very good possibilities of storms - especially in the Midlands / East. Of course there will be downgrades to charts, but nevertheless it may be some of the best storms ever!

At the moment, the Midlands is the hotspot for upcoming severe storms - for once. London will probably get few while we will steal them all