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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury
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Sorry to put a downer on things but I'm quite disappointed by this mornings output. Intensity and distribution of storms seems to really have shunted east and definitely has been toned down overnight. I was all for chasing tomorrow but I don't think I will anymore unless CW issue a MDT. Hopefully we see improvements on today's runs.
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ICON 12z showed hardly any precipitation at all, so the fact the ICON 18z has shown heavier more widespread precipitation is good! I don't see the negativity regarding the UKV 18z compared to the 15z seems anywhere from CS England to SE to EA may see something? 18z is very similar if anything a touch west.
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Oh WOW! An extraordinary difference on the UKV 15z and whilst first glance looks impressive it's much worse than the 12z regarding severe potential. Trough seems to pass through much quicker and as a result we actually have an eruption of intense elevated storms across CS England towards the SE but a much lower risk of surface based convection with very small SB Cape values.
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No-one can be sure yet what's going to happen so every opinion is valid! The trend of less elevated convection is something that is talked about by Tony Gilbert over on UKWW. He said that the less elevated convection during early morning then the higher the risk of severe/marginally severe surface based storms later in the day so. Interesting read: Convective Outlook Thurs 21st May 2020 - WWW.UKWEATHERWORLD.CO.UK Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Central and Eastern UK 06z-18z Ironically initially started this...
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A positive run by the EURO4 12z and is supportive of the UKV & NMM so far. Initiation looks to take place from around 10am from Reading eastwards. Despite there being an eastward shift in most of the models it is definitely a positive sign that the higher resolution models of EURO4, NMM and UKV all show thundery activity on Thursday. I think if the AROME also shows a similar scenario once it comes into view then I can definitely have more confidence. If AROME does come in-line then I'd back EURO4, AROME, NMM & UKV > GFS, ECM, ICON & ARPEGE any day. EURO4 12z below:
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My only worry remains that the pressure lies very high throughout Thursday (~1020hPa) and as a result both ICON-EU and ARPEGE not showing any thundery activity at all. ICON-EU suppressing any convection with pressure exceeding 1022hPa, ARPEGE ~ 1020hPa NetWx somewhat below 1020hPa hence more widespread thundery activity.
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Model Output Discussion - heading into April
Ben Sainsbury replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Obviously I really appreciate Nick's storm forecasts here on Netweather but for my general in-experience my rule of thumb is to only go storm chasing if Dan on ConvectiveWeather issues a Moderate particularly if the area of storms is over the East of the UK. If everything stays together I'm very tempted to make the drive down the M4 and stop off at my Uni house before deciding on next move.
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Yeah agreeing with much of the chat regarding next Thursday, general consensus is for a few home-grown elevated storms to develop across CS England and the far South. The risk generally to transfer eastwards with the potential for storms to root to the boundary layer to become surface based or for other surface based storms to form late morning across SE England and East Anglia. NMM generally tends to over-blow CAPE values but even then we are still looking at 1000J/Kg respectively. Decent DLS too as mentioned so chance of organisation and/or weak home-grown MCS as hinted by NMM. Steep lapse rates too so some quite frequent lightning at times. Though all subject to changes over the coming days.
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Model Output Discussion - heading into April
Ben Sainsbury replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Despite that ECM, UKMO & ICON all relatively similar at T144. GFS nah nah.