Weather-history

The very wet spell of November-December 1929 continued into the January of 1930. The 12th of January was a stormy day Gusts include 102mph at Falmouth 97mph at Scilly 83mph at Shoeburyness 77mph at Croydon Many trees were uprooted. It was also very mild at times 13.3C at Manchester and Dublin on 9th 15.6C at Greenwich on 19th The wet spell finally ended during early February with more anticyclonic blocking. It also became chillier with more snow and frost January CET: 5.6C February CET: 2.5C Rainfall to 1881-1915 average England and Wales January 170% February 46% Scotland January 131% February 32% Ireland January 152% February 28%

Wettest Januaries on record for England and Wales 176.8 1948 169.0 1988 162.6 1995 160.3 1928 156.2 1939 149.8 1834 149.3 1984 147.1 1943 146.8 1877 144.9 2008 140.2 1872 136.6 1852 135.7 1906 134.3 1809 131.0 1994 129.0 1937 128.8 1804 128.6 1999 128.6 1806 128.4 1990 127.6 1986 125.3 1960 125.1 1930 124.4 1936 124.4 1913 124.2 1975 124.3 1791 122.8 1875 122.7 2004 122.7 1828 122.4 1919 120.6 1974 120.4 1998 120.2 1886 119.3 1817 118.9 1961 118.6 1786 118.0 1900 117.6 1866 117.6 1800 116.5 1851 116.2 1796 115.3 1993 114.5 1938 114.1 1926 114.0 1962 113.1 1978 112.5 1971 112.3 1860 110.3 1863 109.9 1970 109.4 1922 109.1 1873 108.7 1915 108.7 1884 108.3 1920 107.2 1921 107.2 1912 106.8 1942 106.8 1867 106.3 1890 105.6 1789 105.4 1774 104.8 1965 104.5 1959 102.8 1977 102.4 1983 101.8 1869 101.7 1840 101.6 1846 101.5 1969 101.1 1819 100.9 1895 100.8 1972 100.5 2007 100. 2014 up to 16th

It wasn't good for hill farmers and lambing but it could have been a hell of a lot worse if nature wasn't in suspended animation thanks to the chilly January and February. If it had been a pretty mild January and February then that March struck....

Interesting winter 1852-53, February was very cold and very snowy.

7.5C in 1916 followed by a snowy late February-March

LolThe annual NElyblast cold zonality and 1984 post.And you ask the question will we ever see cold zonality again? You ask will we ever see a cold April again, a couple of years back?Same old, same old.

Wettest Januaries on record for England and Wales 176.8 1948 169.0 1988 162.6 1995 160.3 1928 156.2 1939 149.8 1834 149.3 1984 147.1 1943 146.8 1877 144.9 2008 140.2 1872 136.6 1852 135.7 1906 134.3 1809 131.0 1994 129.0 1937 128.8 1804 128.6 1999 128.6 1806 128.4 1990 127.6 1986 125.3 1960 125.1 1930 124.4 1936 124.4 1913 124.2 1975 124.3 1791 122.8 1875 122.7 2004 122.7 1828 122.4 1919 120.6 1974 120.4 1998 120.2 1886

For me, Paul, I didn't really have problems with the forecast, it was "shades of 76" that was the mistake. No long range forecast, IMO, should try and compare with a past season or have a sound bite. You are asking for trouble. It seems Madden and co haven't. Why do they go for the extreme?

How do members describe very zonal?Is very zonal, the rapid movement of low pressures from west to east? UKMO doesn't show that though as low pressures become slow moving near us bit like a log jam.

Lol the UK is under colder 850hpa than Alaska for that chart!What would happen if "warm" uppers got within the Arctic circle?

It is possible and it has happened but not often.

Yes just look at early February 1996 and 12th March 2006. The problem is there is no cold air over France. If cold air was present over France, it would be very interesting.

Saw snow before Christmas 1999, which laid temporarily and a day of lying snow (Met Office rules) during mid February 2000 and there was a snow shower early March 2000, wet snow early April.

I'm not an expert but isn't part of the problem is that there no yellows and oranges associated with the Scandinavian high at the 500hpa level?

The most snowless winter I can remember was not any of the mildest ones, it was an anticyclonic one: 1991-92. Saw snow precipitation from freezing fog during mid late January which gave a covering. Proper snow came in mid February 1992 but it was wet. There was a little bit of snow in March one Friday night from showers and wet snow mid April but that was it.

Poor?It actually shows a chilly west/northwest airstream. Hills in our region could get something from thathttp://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Manchester/long.html

Depends on what where the "cold" comes from. ECM shows quite a chilly westerly-northwesterly flow.

Only about 22 odd weeks before the nights starts drawing in again......

Jus to show the NAO is not the be all end all, if you look at the values for January 1990 and February 1991 on NOAA, they are exactly the same but the two months were totally different in character.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table It's the AO, where they differ, Jan 1990 was positive and Feb 1991 was negative.

That was the last time we had a February CET that was sub 2CAfter January and December 2010, March 2013, it is surely only a matter of time we get a notably cold February?

As I have said many a time before the problem I have with that argument is "what balances what out?" You say it could be payback for the cold snowy March but how do you know March 2013 was not payback for March 2012 and that Spring 2013 was payback for Spring 2011?If that was case then there would be no payback now as the "debt" has been settled or is it? How do we know next winter won't be payback for this winter?This is the problem.

Winter 1882-83 didn't begin until 6th March

The last noticeable easterly during January was in 1996. It took ages to develop though, the block was to NE but there was a stalemate across the UK, a bit like what some of the models have been showing. It wasn't until the final third of January went into the east and the last week when the very cold air arrived. Forecasts from January 1996 http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2aqOqjWCczNHeD-DGVCNNRe0

This time last year, I saw the first snow of that season.