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southbank

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Everything posted by southbank

  1. southbank
    So hopefully 10 inches by Friday morning ......... only jesting , 5 cm and winter wonderland will do me
  2. southbank
    Wet snow in Sutton , honestly thought the lack of back edge snow reports might it would be all sleet affair
  3. southbank
    Ok I’m calling tonight it’s gonna be a bust , alarming lack of snow reports
  4. southbank
  5. southbank
    you talking rush hour tonight or thursday front ??
  6. southbank
    seems today action may be meh , any thoughts on thursday into friday? seems more of a chance for london ?
  7. southbank
    Just A throw back to my best ever snow total in 47 years , 10 inches
  8. southbank
    What’s really is the elephant in the room is that despite millions upon millions spent on computer model driven programs we still can’t say with any high percent of confidence where / how much / when anyone may see snow Tuesday/Wednesday
  9. southbank
    Very rare frontal snow potentially this coming week , think last time I saw snow from a frontal event was Jan 13 and nov 30/dec 1st 2010 if I am correct for London ?
  10. southbank
    Think we have been bang unlucky this winter with the roll of dice relating to SSW at the end of December which left a daughter vortice right where we didn’t want it. No mistaking the MRF /LRF have all struggled how the energy coming away from this vortice. I’m beginning to resign myself it just may not happen as more and more enables are trending higher
  11. southbank
    like you said a very rare event, but during the Dec 2010 there was a cheshire gap streamer that did indeed make it all the way down to London (SW) certainly and gave a quick covering that caused traffic chaos , but in 47 years that is my only memory of snow from NW
  12. southbank
    There's always a *risk* of something more pronounced into lowland S England given high likelihood of below or mostly below avg temps next week to mid-Feb, but threat of more *extreme* cold/v snowy conditions still considered low, ca. 10-15% (unlikely matching e.g. Feb-March '18) from Ian Ferguson
  13. southbank
    seems a fair bit different in a rather short period of time (6 hrs ) from T96 to T 84 . And theres people looking at T240 charts in MOD ?
  14. southbank
    So not much change , seems first half of Feb will be winter best chance
  15. southbank
    GFS 12 z at 240 , couldn’t make it Cold to left of me , freezing to the right , here am I stuck in the middle of you
  16. southbank
    That Thanks Northwest For newbies that is the prefect example of the much maligned GIN corridor of death to easterly Ukmo shows artic / mid Atlantic ridge connection EcM shows GIN corridor of death ( ie too many energy , no clean separation of trigger low, no artic / MAR link up been here so many times over last 15 years on this fantastic forum
  17. southbank
    GAME OVER !!!! For westerlies in February
  18. southbank
    Surely the record snowfall in southern German /Austria may play a part in temps at the surface as air circulates around the low ?
  19. southbank
    Lovely cold crispy and more importantly sunny winters day . Never get why people enjoy mild but cloudy/ wet days in winter , give me snow/cold/sun any day
  20. southbank
    Spot on Nick , to many times eye candy charts have downgraded closer we get to T+0 as the energy over the pond gets modelled better Im wondering also what impact snow cover in the Alps (if any ) may play in cooling temps at the surface should we draw a more continetal feed next week
  21. southbank
    models are certainly very pleasing , but been here many many times were optimal cold models are shown to peak around this time scale onlt to start downgrading as we get closer to accurately modelling split energy off ESB
  22. southbank
    GAME "BACK " ON until 12.02 17th Jan 2019
  23. southbank
    small upgrade but too far out to even worry about
  24. southbank
    The ecm op is following what the EC 46 dayer being alluding too, but having been badly bitten a few years back and ECM weakness by amplifying too much until we see cross model agreement specially the beast killer METO it’s just nice FI candy
  25. southbank
    I think too much faith is given to LRF models . GLOSEA may be one of the best , however since October its flagged Feb 19 as having a strong HLB signal which it held onto throughout Nov , Dec and upto 2 weeks ago. Now 2 1/2 weeks to Feb it downgrades that signal , we just arent there regards how computers model chaos , My fear is that EC46 may be leading us up garden path as we know ECM tends to do over amplifaction
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