southbank

Yep specially Madrid at 40.4 lats had 20 inches

totally over the top with the dig at the MET there , hardly embarrassing in probably one of the hardest weather types (snow)) to forecast on an Island off the second largest ocean surround by warmer seas , they got the the board strokes correct if not to the sq inch !! which is far better than the predictions and back slapping we have seen in the MOD thread I say enjoy the hobby, enjoy the snow , enjoy the chase

is it a greeny block or Atlantic ridge ------------ ok i get my coat hoping mood lift here with better charts after this morning kick

thats the thing the METO long range update have stressed low signal - i agree the wording of these updates are a tad shambolic as they tend to cover all basis - but they are still number one met with computering power/ expertise far bigger than NW MOD thread and the key word for me was low confidence. We see , might be a wobble or new trend but again those in MOD thread know better than to chase down synoptics that are more than 72 hours away let along 240 that has been the case last week or so

really enjoying your inputs SLW , that chart above screams of a locked in pattern surely should that ever come off ?

agreed and worringly that fits in with the METO long range forecast - signal seems to be for us down south to have to much influence from Iberian high which would be devasting to us wanting a cold snap

Oh well the MOD thread had its version of a bar room brawl this eve sadly with difference of opinions spilling over . People get passionate about the subject and sadly trying to get decent snowy cold into the uk is like pulling hens teeth so frustrations boil over . I understand it and when you see Madrid with 20 inches and no doubt Greece next week it’s so frustrating for us at 51 latitude ( give or take) . But doesn’t excuse bad darts . Any way I still think the models are in a dead zone til Friday b4 I throw my toys out the oram

Got to say really enjoyed from December following your posts re the ssw ( and previous years ) the fact the seasonal models went with usual La Niña background signals whilst ignoring what was actually happening in real time . GLOSEA update Monday would be interesting on seasonal trend. I do have a nagging worry , which kind of ties in with the METO that we might end up with a north south divide . With much colder uppers in the northern part whilst we be stuck in Atlantic air / our nemesis the AH might just turn escasty into despair for us in SE. Hope I’m wrong and hope we get something decent last 2 weeks

Is this a global warming Thames Streamer then ?

The last frame is a redux of 2019 , the daughter vortices ended up exactly where we didn’t want and triggered endless lows via temp gradient

yep we prob end up with the AZH on top of us and the -16 850 50 miles in the north sea off the kent coast !!!!

yep the usual nemesis AZH ridging close by - looks like the METO are leaning to this ridging near by rather than any HLB setting up shop

the elephant in the room is that despite all the computing power and investment over the years we cant get model agreement even 4/5 days out in the 21th Century !!!! i mean 120 hours of weather and we have different outcomes showing - have we really progress from the hard work of the like of John Holmes from maybe 2-3 day to 4/5 days ?

lol - i was watching that on Netflix for the first time in 30 years Back to models thats certainly encouraging from METO , can we really see some disruption here #???

interesting the GFS 12 z has slightly warmer 850 over the north CONUS and coldest in Russia , yesterday it was other way round , maybe less thermal gradient to give the jet some some fuel in its northern arm?

i tend to agree but it had its moment in the sun think 2018/2019 winter - when another SSW left too much energy in the GIN area and all other models and meto Uk where calling cold into NY this model flatten the pattern - so just sometimes may come up with the goods

very true

the mini Thames streamer of Jan 03 can anyone remember what the 850 were that came across that early morning into lunchtime to give the largest central london snowfall since 1991?

Do you remember the 2003 mini Thames streamer on that forum ? I maybe wrong as memory is playing havoc but I’m sure we had a few posters from here on that bbc snow watch explaining to us newbies what was happening. that 2003 event shows you just need it all to come together to get a decent event . It was caused by a pool of very cold 850 moving in from the North East on NNE wind . Was working in Moorgate at the time and believe we had a few inches even in central london which maybe the biggest since 1991. Was great to find others loved the weather as much as me ??????

I get the frustration and agree the cold spell is a o out of ten but the potential is there for something decent and dare I say maybe phenomenal . There are background signals that are keeping the Uk in the game and these just just might roll us the prefect 6 . But at the moment what we have is the slow building blocks which has always been the way for us in the SE. I remember looking at the weather with mostly north of Watford getting all the fun until the right conditions landed the goods for london / se in the 1970 and 80’s. The NWP models are struggling with the current set up as you can see in the discussions , so we just may see a slight warm up as the wave length changes in response to the SSW happening . But this is the exciting bit , most are forecasting a displacement then maybe a split that could just could deliver the goods with two daughter vortices one over northern US and other over scandi allowing a HLb to fill the void over Greenland keeping us very much on cold side of the jet. lots going on which the NWP prob won’t resolve until next week as I won’t expect anything tasty regarding snow until end of jan ( although depending how the trough drops from Iceland late this week is a point of interest ) but this is probably the best set up I have seen in almost 16 years from the old BBC Snow Watch

Hopefully the 0z firm up on lower 850 in short term

Morning Paul re ECM did you catch the final 240 frame - all very much lalalla land and as much chance of me winning a euromillion but to me thats the classic surface chart that makes me sit and take interest for our ES corner - -10 850 in our corner with low pressure in France - all the other synoptics tend to be a bust for London /uk

Are we sure that balloon data and airplane data aren’t missing from these NWP inputs ???? merry Xmas

Vikos your input is very much appreciated , I for one take heart for weather nuts all over Europe and share our common love for this hobby

although a potential solution remember we are talking about the GFS6z + 300 , its just about trends nothing more the surface features will be completely different