southbank

Hi Chionomniiac , any concerns that today the models seem to indicate a displacement rather than split around the 7th Jan ? ironic that GLOSEA finally started coming on board with a SSW that we go from a spilt to displacement as we know with UK luck where the displacement wil end up !!!

great to see other folks in Europe posting - just shows you weather nuts are universal - welcome to Netweather btw Vikos

its interesting that i remember Steve Murr posting a chart at the beginning of dec/ late November? that had a COBRA run which showed a rapid and marked deacceleration in wind speeds

That something defo watching - events like that when the PV is decoupled can have surprising results to cold outcome

to be honest in the last 48 years , how many seasonal christmas have we had in london - as you say to be this close is quite something. I do fear ( after 15 years on here) the energy coming out of NE USA is the one piece of modelling that never seems to get done properly until much much nearer the time and we we always end of wrong side of the jet , fingers cross this isnt going to be one of those heart breaks but we wont really know til later in the week

I haven’t been to concerned about short / medium term outlook on the models so long as back ground signal and trends showed a seasonal look at Xmas but this curve ball needs monitoring as I believe a few years back when another promising late December back ground signal was screwed by an active period of the Sun . If this happens again then in U.K. we are cursed keeping the faith at the moment , hopefully trend remains I’m sick of heavy rain on Sw on the big day last 49 years we must be due so sort of luck ?

Wow - the GFS 0’s follows the trend of last night 18’s of at least a trending colder seasonal Christmas . Be interesting if the trend continues regardless of the actual surface details . I would gladly take 5 days off Xmas and rest a milder winter quick question some folks have posted CFS charts last few days that also trended colder Christmas however for the likes of me I cant find those charts on the net ? If someone has a link I would be very grateful . so fingers cross the trend continues over the week

it feels all a bit Meh this - so sad us coldies and resorting to chasing Sleet these days so dire have winters become since 2010. What I give for a truely festive cold snap during christmas - cold clear winter sunshine - temps not above 4 with crisp night time hoarse frost and if lucky a heavy snow shower to think UK is Latitude is 55 degree north and at the age of 50 i barely seen one true cold snap in london christmas day ( 4 or 5??? last 10 have been on the whole heavy rain washouts )

fully expect the Nick Sussex winter Prozac supply to see its first winter outing ........

thank you thats exactly what I was looking for - i be keen to see Nov update to see any subtle switches

apologies I know its off topic but i have no idea where to ask - when does the GLOSEA 5 ( UK Met) model update for DJF time period , I thought the Met posted monthly updates on its website? Does it shoe any interest?

with all this rain in SE England we know one thing the Jet is trending south , all we need is that smidge of luck to be on the cold side of the jet and we could be in biz

Certainly the 0z Suite of charts may be indicating a HLB around Greenland in 19 days time , certainly bottling up some great potential there that may lead to Somme great ( if eye candy only ) Boom charts , but as ever more runs needed and watch for a SW spoiler

Im a big admire of the MET , overall an insitution you can proud off , but these longer term updates have been comical

Glad you got on some action , really appreciated your input over last day , just a shame this cold snap been so poor for majority . Those in London I believe really need a beast of the east to really get a covering to counteract urban heating

Yes always nice to see the white stuff but certainly a bit meh this morning , considering it snowed most of the night not much and already drip drip to slush

V light snow Sutton London

Were you the poster a few years back who was mad as a Thames streamer and Medway streamer went pass you by , think eventually you got lucky ?

Home and dry app looks ok but see what you mean if you are using WeatherPro app

Funny you mention 2010 dec 1 st/2nd I was thinking how that event unfolded and what uppers we had. I think it was generally much colder than this one . Below a trip down memory lane

has the MET issued an amber alert for London . nothing on website yet national papers are reporting it and BBC NEWS 24

strangely thats heavy stuff is outside the current Amber area the Met issued earlier

might be why MET UK havent upgraded from Yellow to Amber

To be honest these LRF are pointless , a complete waste of time and energy

Caution as the 06z ECM is a slight downgrade again for South/SE sector . this really is going to the wire .Amounts look 1 -3 cms and there are patchy bits showing up