Daniel*

Open your eyes Seb

Cold frosty nights and relatively cold by day also on ECM 12z it would be a huge flip.

Nice to see something cooler than average at last favoured from next weekend.. with some chilly nights, with mist and fog in morning burning back to bright sunshine?

Warmest days now looking Monday + Tuesday I wouldn't rule out 27C it’s impressive for time of year. More abnormal warmth restricted further SE though.

I never said it was impossible to see 20C just that if it were to occur it would occur in an extremely isolated location and would be unrepresentative of surrounding areas. The warmest air from winter is coming from a tropical maritime air mass from Azores. It’s not coming from south off continent. The UK is a very maritime influenced, surrounded by cooler water this will always have a moderating influence. The example of continental Europe is not a good one, and as for 40C, studies have shown this was possible even without global warming while very unlikely… but climate change has made it much more likely. Indeed the prospect was discussed more and more before the summer of 2022. It shouldn’t really have took anyone by surprise, I just thought the large geographic area was the more noteworthy feature. I for example did not think it was possible to see 40C as far north as Lincolnshire.

A 20c max in December and January where? Not realistic for UK winter climatology. The highest December temperature on record at Heathrow is 16.4C on 19/12/2015 and January 15.7C on 01/01/2022. Solar radiation is simply too weak that cannot be overcome, such winter warmth (excluding Feb) can only be seen on lee side of mountain with an extreme foehn effect that is 0.0001%.

Similarly, it’s time to put summer to bed… keep wishing for more anomalous warmth. This is October.

Quite possible this weekend into early next week will feature last warm days of year until spring 2024. No one can argue we have had a good run, time for something more appropriate.

March was an awful month, very unsettled and cloudy. In London lowest spring max since 1986.

The previous record average max was 22.8C from 1949... smashed apart.

September 2023 is hottest month of year in London, quite remarkable it never happened in Heathrow’s 75 year records till now. More here: r

Wrong

11.4C and 57mm thanks. This is difficult GFS going much colder.

Cold kills much more in Northern Europe that’s a fact. The idea the climate is going to transform enough for this to flip is idiotic. from data released in early 2023 “Over the last ten years (note many of these winters mild), the average number of deaths each winter in the UK caused by cold damp homes now stands at 7,409.” More deaths than hottest summer on record in England last year which I think was near 3k. Winter 2010/11 near 30,000 excess deaths. A lot!

Thanks mate, you’re Cheshire Freeze now? You’ll always be Crewe Cold to me let’s hope for a cracking old school winter, unusually the long range guidance is gravitating towards -NAO winter. Unusual blocking patterns this summer too! I’m thinking warm Atlantic SSTs with now widespread they are north and south, could be playing a role.

For Heathrow. July and August was slightly below average, an exceptionally warm June made a huge difference. June Mean Max: 25.3C (+3.7C) Mean Min: 13.5C (+1.5C) Mean T: 19.4C (+2.6C) July Mean Max: 22.9C (-1C) Mean Min: 14C (-0.2C) Mean T: 18.5C (-0.6C) August Mean Max: 23C (-0.4C) Mean Min: 13.8C (-0.3C) Mean T: 18.4C (-0.4C) Summer Mean T: 18.8C (+0.6C) Wrt 1991-2020 average

Happy birthday to me, the years seem to be going too fast now…. a very nice morning and early afternoon. Cloud cover becoming a bit more extensive now. I don’t remember the last rainy birthday to be honest.

Monthly record at London, Heathrow Airport. 33C overtakes 2016’s 32.8C.

Incredible stuff this is for September, not known anything like it in my lifetime. By near mid month the mean temp in London looks to be near 24C totally out this world. Good expectation for weather to turn closer to normal by next Tuesday but hints it could start warming again. A significantly warmer than average September is highly likely.

Odds on to be a record warm September in London, already seems quite clear which is alarming…. https://x.com/thesnowdreamer/status/1699165354113499222?s=61&t=cYYkjFDEgIgUESXd7oZvxg

16.1C and 56mm thanks

Eh? London including central London has its most significant fall of December snow since 2010. In my part of zone 2 we had cover for a week longer than BFTE. https://x.com/joyce_karam/status/1602078654791843840?s=61&t=cYYkjFDEgIgUESXd7oZvxg

Surprised this thread is this busy that just tells you everything about the state of this convective season intense rain here in central London after 10pm, had about 10mm in half a hour of course nothing electrical.

Howdy all, I’m currently in Rome as of yesterday, it’s hot here… 32C today after weeks of low 20s gloom in London, it is a bit of an adjustment. Finding a shady spot in afternoon is important to stay cool, it can be a challenge, and eating out late when sun is down. I see ECM 12z takes temps here to 40s late next week, thankfully I’ll be well gone, here 4 nights! No doubt there will be significant heat in near continent again. In contrast to July perhaps we have a better chance of it advecting our way especially in SE with less strong Atlantic influence. Nothing particularly warm from tonight’s Euro although we can usually add 1-2C to daytime values, but it does have a widespread tropical night, highlighting the very real potential for very high minima. I do find late summer nights are some of most sticky and uncomfortable as the seas at at their warmest, the lengthening night not yet significant enough for much cooling.

Stunning summers day in London literally we have had to wait a whole month! And my perfect temperature 23C