Daniel*

Fairly disturbed.. I reckon think there could be transitory snow almost anywhere in the next 10 days not exclusively for hills. No winter wonderland in sight - this is turning out to be quite a frustrating saga.

Quite.

This polar low/ disturbance like feature continues to be shown for Wednesday moving southeastwards losing intensity as it does, note the warm core.

Got that London drizzle which is incredibly light you'd need a pair of binoculars.

Clearly he commented SO FAR not as a whole dismissing the remaining weeks aheads which is a very silly move which seems to have been undertaken an ignorant move. Despite it being the mildest winter it has been the "snowiest" IMBY - that tells a story in itself looking back to predecessors 14/15 & 13/14 nor has it been particularly wet out of north/west.

The lack of 'interest' in the Greenland/mid-Atlantic which has been shrouded by negative geopotential height anomalies is precisely why we've seen nothing of note thus far, on that basis it is very encouraging to see. As I have been saying methinks both sides of the pond will be joining in.

It is called global warming for a reason you cannot take UK in isolation last week a subtropical island, Amani Island observed its first snowfall for first time in 115 years & sleet in Okinawa for first time ever. Much of East Asia and parts of Southeast Asia experienced record cold temperatures this is a huge landmass. I think we're getting more extremes, I would hold your horses about this winter it's not over yet.

Knocker's woodshed could be in peril!

Never mind roll on summer I'm still waiting patiently for winter. A graceful day blue skies, long spells of sunshine and quite blustery and cool. Autumn has been on a loop since December indications of this breaking down as we enter last 2 weeks of Feb not great being at the back-end but I would take it.

@Cloud buster You're correct, well he is from states. It would have wider implications the ridge pumps WAA right into the heart of pole giving way to a domino effect, in HLB there would be ripples. The +ve height anomalies in those regions suggest arctic air will be dislodged to our latitudes, North America & Western Europe it seems to me, arctic floodgates would open for us included. It would be incredibly unfortuante if we got nothing decent, very cold air which has spent its time bottled up in arctic circle, not saying to the extent what the U.S is expecting to see-but much colder conditions that is how I'm interpreting it. It does take us near to mid February but to be realistic anything earlier would have been a bonus, the winter is not going out with a whisper. This time next week I sense we will be seeing some really striking model output, just hold on tight and enjoy the ride...

Going by the above graphic I struggle to see how UK would miss out.. A meaty ridge indeed!

I dare say up north with some height will get buried, tentative signs of a mid Atlantic block on 240 some trough disruption digging into Europe, jet stream well S of UK, PV in tatters, losing the SW'ly interludes prime time to utilise. (March is going to be a cold one mark my words ) . The foreground is there just need a block to help funnel that cold. With chunks of PV vortex crossing over British Isles expect the unexpected very low thicknesses in mix. I would expect to see upgrades on 850's, as what usually happens in these scenarios I believe...remains unconvincing for southern England, but this will change. We all throughly deserve some real proper wintriness nationwide from Land's End to John o'Groats following all this palava.

Disagree Jason, Wednesday looks rather interesting up & down the country. A disturbance in the flow moving down the country 500mb temperatures below -35C ideal for polar low development, I think it is a polar low... much of the country seeing snowfall even in S. Quite marginal with 850's.

Very much so, considering one gent went with my figure I'll go down 0.2 taking that to 2.6C. I do think March could be really quite cold rivalling 2013...outside the optimum time for lowland snow but it can deliver, just need very good synoptics which I think will be induced by an eventual split in PV implying cold arctic air bottled in poles will spill to our latitudes. The split in the polar vortex on 12z albeit not guaranteed, makes me reminisce of Feb 2009 that very quickly got the ball rolling. (I have not viewed the 18z yet).

Euro4 is very good for scootland aside for the NE blow up the mountains! expect blizzard like conditions to low levels, quite considerable depths with elevation, real risk of avalanches once this cold blip is over, meanwhile in London it is a case of how cold the rain gets...

The rain to the west is moving ENE.

Rain/sleet will turn to snow approximately midnight... with 850's between -8 and -9 moving in, very cold upper air temps for a westerly perhaps the cold SST in North Atlantic is the cause of that. it would snow to sea level in Northern Ireland well it should do by what I'm seeing, accumulations will be more challenging below 100m. I would not be surprised if @pomeroysnow ended up with 10cm or so with his elevation could even get some drifting in upland areas. I do think some lucky folk wil get a pasting, an unstable flow with troughs moving in, most of the fun - occurring north of Dublin. Enjoy.

This is a tough one definitely the coldest month of the winter by a big margin I feel. 2.8C please

Spare the grief! We have a civil war going on over here over a inch or 2 of rain.

Excuse me I'm a free wandering spirit! The tail-end of the winter is setting up nicely. A mighty split here, Feb 2009-esque.

100% sure. Just a waiting game.

A lot more amplified upstream here a pinch going on, has the shape of a butterfly rather than the squashed type 6z was showing enough for a clean northerly. I'm surprised little discussion is going on.

Severe storm for Scotland on Monday the storm is further S and deeper.

Panic would ensue if it ended up the reality, the latter part of the run shows the polar vortex regathering angriness the fact of the matter it is not awful, but that gives me no inclination for deep cold for UK. What we all well most sought for till approaching months end. Heights remain relatively high to the south with Azores high pushing into Western Europe. I think it is odds on Scotland, N Ireland, far north of England will do well over the next few weeks, however I await to see whether this will be more than just a northern affair....

Hi Paul, yes I can confirm that was irritating.