Daniel*

The NE'ly is going to source from a sufficiently cold Scandinavia. Nice looking synoptic - risk of Kent Streamer? Definite instability with sea surface temperature 'toasty'. 10C SST's off the Kent coast remarkably warm...also these figures for Thames estuary. I'm convinced it may get quite busy in here...let the radar be your friend.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday: Turning colder with overnight frosts, but also plenty of dry, bright weather by day. However, strong northeasterly winds will drive snow showers into northern and eastern parts Sunday and Monday. Updated at: 0043 on Fri 12 Feb 2016

120hr fax is very interesting -spot the convergence zone

The forecast mentioned wintry showers.

As posted in MOD thread the evening ECMWF is showing a potential snow day for London and southeast precip comes from a slider to the SW of England in all likelihood north of London may remain dry altogether. As we enter nightfall & temperatures fall - in an easterly flow of all things not a modified PM airmass, we're so very accustomed to. Meaning early rain/sleet as temperatures are too high may transition to snow giving a surprise? I do think this has a reasonable chance of happening despite being at T+78. Sunday evening: Uppers roughly -5C I would think this would fall largely as snow inland, well before global warming a sleety mix for coasts. Moderate precipitation over the London area. You can view these charts from here - http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=cloud

A very real 'threat' is there...

The trusty ARPEGE does not rule out wintry precipitation out of Saturday's channel low keeping the dream alive.

What does this mean for Science?

A nice frosty start to the day.

Spanning from 11th to the 21st snowfall cumulative accumulations. I follow someone on Twitter who has access to those charts, not of the public domain unfortunately.

Sunday evening I think there may be some light snow about. GFS 00z snow map is not bad for our region

18z emphasises the risk with a more easterly element Great chart -10C isotherm blanketing us all with a bitter ne'ly = lake effect type snow for prone counties like Kent. I hope this is not too much to ask.....?

Care to elaborate.. Tarring everyone with same brush is unfair. Likes correlate well with depth of knowledge, they are not meant to be thrown out like bird seed - of course you cannot control who likes what. Negative it boosts egos to the point they think they're better than everyone else...which honestly I have not seen much of have you?

Those who have grievances with well there's a reason for that is there? If it was removed I feel some 'high ranking' members would have less an incentive to post. We show our appreciation through likes without cluttering threads with off topic cr@p & when folk like Tamara, fergieweather ect gain many they deserve them thoroughly and must feel somewhat satisfied and it keeps them posting knowing their input is valued, not in a smug way, although I can't speak for all. I do think knocker for instance deserves more likes however he does not show what the masses like to see, well...

Risk of a Kent streamer of sorts probably affecting the extreme E of Kent, opportunity between late Sunday into Monday as winds veer more easterly NNE'ly traveling over relatively warm North Sea several degrees Celsius above average due to you guess what perhaps a good thing in this scenario with 850's not spectacular there's a quite big gradient. The extreme SE may possibility see a trail of quite constant snow showers moving in, which we know can deposit a lot of snow. I'm not sure whether the depth of cold is sufficient, but the potential is there and I wouldn't expect the models to have a great handle on it, the radar is your friend for that.

Aye same last year there was a terrific squall the IOW and that general area seems to do very well for that sort of stuff, it will be nice to get out of London with someone else doing the cooking and whatnot the fresh country air and a nice glug of sea air, good for the soul. it is quite a nostalgic place for me and it has many happy memories, little changes unlike London I'm quite drawn to the coast as a whole. Cheers, I hope the bedford snow shield deactivates! The weather is not looking chirpy oh well. i hope the whole snow shield devouring our region is consumed I do think there is a very high chance whether we will get proper snow cover sketchy ground.

I shall be posting in here Mon - Fri for my annual holiday dare I even call it that to Hayling Island horrid place for snow. Channel low now is your time to get your skates on.

Put it in your calendars I'm heading off to Hayling Island got the dates confused. I just know back in Rotherhithe will see snow meanwhile nearby the Solent, I will be seeing cold rain on the soggy south coast isle, I'm quite sure snow is more abundant in London compared to that part of the world, where it is v rare.

As you can gather Saturday is uncertain needs to dig more S along with colder uppers for any interest still a washout! However not as terrible as the 06z. (Slightly better wedge of heights to the north - perhaps causing it to take a more southerly route). 06z 12z

The weekend is still up for grabs IMO south of the M4 it is not looking great quite wet - expect changes to T24. It is not resolved I sense the model fatigue as well, it has been a long winter but hopefully our efforts are rewarded before the doors slam shut on winter 15/16. Weekend aside a flow from the NE, quite unstable I'd reckon with low heights in Low Countries squeezing a ne'ly flow. Driving in sleet/snow showers from the east perhaps merging into longer spells of s thing not a bad synoptic. Hopefully the quite warm SST in North Sea will help compensate for the lack of very cold 850's which are typically needed to allow convection. It is not an ordinary winter that's for sure..it's not over yet.

Nice drenching cold rain showers just passed did look a little sleety, horrible, we're so used to disappointments it would be marvellous if we got some short-term upgrades. London, SE and EA including the West Country are the most snow starved regions in the country therefore we ought to have a slice of whatever may come. It is an arduous journey.

Just a normal day in Rotherhithe....

What a turnaround compared to yesterday lovely, still and bright quite cool too.

Despite the disturbances We're all a nice bunch of people well I'd like to think so, never be afraid to post I say that to all more people's input is what makes this thread more enjoyable to read, more you have of something the more problems you potentially have but it shouldn't be like that. On a new chapter regarding tomorrow morning there is a slight I stress slight chance of snow despite those parameters not being the greatest *with aid of evaporative cooling*. Night folks.

Unfortunately in the UK marginal situations tend to give way to the most heaviest/disruptive snowfalls. This run is good if snow is what you're after most particularly for midlands northwards no deep freeze but it's substantially better than the 'norm' with multiple potential snow events.