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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
Daniel* replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Suggesting it being a complete washout IDO is providing an inaccurate assessment, what he wants folk to hear no doubt about that, even the forecast raised it. -
Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
Daniel* replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Chief Forecaster's assessment: The colder airmass already established across Scotland and the north of England will continue south to affect most other parts by Sunday evening. Showers will feed in on the north to northeasterly winds, particularly affecting the more northern and eastern parts of Scotland, along with northern England during Sunday daytime, but progressing further south into the north and East Midlands along with parts of east and southeast England during Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. Not everywhere will see the snow showers, but some may become aligned in bands from time to time, leading to the risk of some moderate accumulations of snow, most likely over northern Scotland and northeast England. Ice will also be a hazard on untreated surfaces, particularly between showers overnight, with those areas just inland from the coasts of eastern and southeast England at particular risk as the showers will fall as a wintry mix. London snow shield fully operating...
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In traditional settings if only the mainland was colder this would have all fallen as snow how unfortunate. We're still on for some snow this weekend - latter part of Sunday into Monday afternoon before pressure builds. Slight accumulations probable for those who tend to do well out of N/E winds. Moving on a quite raw day a brisk easterly wind the feel like temperature is much colder. Ian has remarked on the MO are going with a blocked end of Feb into early March favouring cold conditions to ensue, what does this mean? Well no early start to spring, occasional sleet showers ect ect.