Daniel*

Notably wet for West Country with gales to boot.

7 years ago today London was crippled by a Thames Streamer.

I'll pass. No sign of that at least.

ECM +216 Perhaps we can start looking to the far NW for signs of blocking?

Multitude of comments. UKMO is showing weak height rises from Iceland extending to southern tip of Greenland. Comparing that to GFS at 144hr different!

Damn I hope no one was killed:

You can draw some similarities to March 2013 channel low which hit the Channel Islands v hard, by far the superior synoptic with a block centred just SW of Iceland - although this occurred a month later, so you need that extra 'quality'. It is a shame there is nothing of the sort being modelled currently but it would make a world of difference many attempts, being foiled from an active Atlantic unusual for February. I for one decidedly do not think the latter part of the month into early March is going to be bring the UK bursting into spring.

I think some folk miss out on these tiny details... This low will need to be monitored closely I've seen some sort of low crossing over or within close proximity to the UK again and again over this time period. On the basis of this particular chart below, it would need to nudge north so the precip is not wasted in the channel, I do not think you can could rule out wet snowfall it is a slack flow off the N/E, mainland = cold dew points & not super cold uppers are required.

Day 6 an actual cold day with a NE'ly a 'rare beast' quite short-lived, reasonable chance of snow showers for eastern/southern counties. I'm quite astounded by the lack of cold air to tap into this god forsaken mild winter is really taking the proverbial, it really would be very interesting if it was just that bit colder, alas most of the time 850's are in the region of 0 to -4C not entirely suggesting endless rain. I have known there to be widespread snow events with 850's of -2C supporting millwall & taking interest in model watching during the winter time, there are parallels.

Late night GFS gives a very good snow event. Significant snowfall for the northern half of the country ie. Cumbria northwards remaining as snow throughout on northern flank of the low, always the potential for such with the United Kingdom being targeted at by Atlantic by southerly tracking systems with cold air not terribly cold in situ. As low trundles across the country colder air undercuts turning the remaining rain to snow. Rain to snow event possible for southern districts, I would not dismiss anything from happening next week! Topsy-turvy....exciting

A 'fluid' weekend coming up. We have Saturday & Sunday to contend with. Saturday - Mean wind speeds widely between 30-40 mph. Some areas especially eastern fringes seeing 6 hours of gusts in the Mid 50's winds packing the greatest strength for windward coastal strip the wind is blowing from the south. Sunday - (into Monday). Worse this appears to be faster moving and through the dark hours, however the entire region at risk of seeing gusts in the low 60's. Mean wind speeds again between 30-40mph so a very windy weekend coming up, I doubt much change will occur to change this. Saturday An absolute washout for us all expect warnings 24 hours of moderate to heavy rain roughly 20-40mm anticipated widely to the west of our region, flooding concerns no doubt about that: Sunday Starts of dry but goes rapidly downhill into evening, not only windy but wet as well characteristic of 13/14 Winter, interestingly February is statistically the direst month. Monday - starting on a wet note! In essence a rather wet, disturbed outlook the ECM offering some hope on a wintry interest.

Disagree immensely this winter has flown by & it ain't even finished YET. I love to see snow falling in the daylight rather than the darkness, we are still very much in winter.

This saturday is looking windy even inland. Gusts widely between 50-60mph during the light of day - The S coast seeing the worst of the winds.....

Nasty storm is back on.

Boosh quite extraordinary Things are heating up...

Indeed scary in fact:

In case you were wondering: z

I'm not losing any sleep * I think some if not most would prefer a week of snow potential rather than a dry punishing cold spell of weather, after all history proves the most problematic snow events arise out of marginal situations and the GFS 12z is showing that, March is going to be a corker.

Very interesting output seeing how dismal the winter has been I'd bank this run for a decent snow event , on the cold side of things & cyclonic leading to results like this... ECM is not my friend today

V muted in this thread. I'm unsure whether Ian F could spill some insight but the GFS seems rather keen on a channel runner mid next week, quite some consistency on this. Virtually windless ideal conditions for evaporative cooling.

Some did see snow! unfortunately much of it fragmented to NW and arrived later than modelled.

Hi, I overslept My radar has it as snow/sleet likely rain near coast. A juicy blob I'll be back on later..

Just for fun - much of the UK seeing 'snowfall' on la GFS 18z tiny amounts for much of Britain but quite big depths in Scotland the ski industry will be happy - the Welsh uplands & the Pennines ect look to see a change of fortune well it has been quite barren, even knocker's back yard seeing a sprinkling I wonder how Sidney will react to that.

This is what the app is showing: A decent covering with elevation?

Before I go The peppery precip currently over Northern Ireland & Central belt is the occlusion moving southeastwards that is what may bring the flakes. According to the app this is where we are at 9am expect the precipitation to fall largely as snow London eastwards, it would be nice to see.