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Everything posted by Daniel*
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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
Daniel* replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Quite frustrating synoptics which don't look bad on the eye sums up this winter; parameters are just not conducive for snowfall, we get the entrails of cold air - which is generally fleeting, more cold rain for Southern England based on this for midweek and I doubt the UKMO would be dissimilar. -
Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
Daniel* replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Très bien, can UKMO be trusted? I think partially it does toy in with 'extended period of below average temps...' I'd say if it was a month earlier this thread would be an awful lot more busier, the arpege model also sniffing it out!.. -
Just experiencing snowfall suffices I don't care when it falls ie. November/March. I have set the bar low, how many x hours it lays on the ground does not overly bother me, the strengthening sun has its plus and minuses with convection. It would be nice to just watch a snow event unfold & I tend to think the first bit of March can still be wintry only in mid/late March I'll put my hands up and call it a day. Spring early warmth like 2012? I did not like that, 20c plus days in March doesn't feel right to me.... If anything a cool Spring is beneficial for farmers/gardeners, a early pounce of Spring warmth followed by a hard frost can be very damaging.
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I see no reason being a member on this site allows you 'privileges' you can post where you like on the basis you cooperate in harmony & don't act like a idiot I'm not insinuating Will is one but surely more grown up behaviour is expected. It is very childish after all he is 300m ASL, snow is a frequent visitor in the winter months - to begrudge this region which has heightened snow chances albeit not great, which I got undertones of is somewhat perplexing. Move on from this folks it gives off bad vibes to the thread, which has some ruffled history that can be said, but we must move on.
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Good luck guys.... the precip has perked up to the west of London the heavier the precip the more the freezing level will fall. It started raining here half 1 oscillating between light & moderate rain, temperature is holding too high down here for anything resembling snow, back at home I wouldn't be surprised in the small hours with heavy rain forecasted and the temperature roughly 3C for some snow to fall I reckon a fair few will see a brief covering above 100 asl.
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You couldn't make it up lol Well I predict the whole region will see some transient snow meanwhile I see endless cold rain. A frosty start to the day here v sunny I have noticed there's some warmth from the sun, an air frost not quite sure how cold it got but the ground is quite saturated round here at least the frost stiffened it up. At least the models are not looking so bad, a late burner indeed..
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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
Daniel* replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evaporative cooling will be the critical factor involved for low levels in southern/central England. I notice Arpege rolling out takes the front further *east* some folk will see snow no question about that I would not like to be a weather forecaster. -
I agree about this "cold spell" only had one air frost & 2 minutes of microscopic snow. I really did expect more from radar I suppose in future we'll be needing -15C uppers. At London Waterloo waiting for the train to Havant, Hayling island awaits if I see snow midweek I will be astounded the isle has a similar climate to the far southwest. A lovely sunny day so can't complain.