Daniel*

It is unrelated to that chart - the kink in fact goes ESE my mistake.

Wave like disturbance feature moving SE through Wednesday excuse the paint job a number of places possibly getting a covering.

@Jason M sorry for the harsh tone it's what a couple of bad winters do to you.... I must say I'm unconvinced, I suppose on the day itself we'll know.... GFS/UKMO being the ideal model for convective business. I would be stunned even on ECM between 120-144 southern/eastern parts do not see something, more than a flurry. 18z rolling out hopefully it plays nice

Thereby implying there is a higher risk of snow actually falling say 40% @Nights King I've noticed a trend to put the southwest more in the frame, good luck folks..rooting for you.

Definitely not, are you having a laugh - I'm not quite sure how you could say that over the last odd few winters the best we have mustered is a potent PM lasting a matter of days, ultimately only substance has been up north the cold spell would hold more significance if it was mid winter alas we're approaching March so you have to face reality in your expectations, there is a threat of signicant snow for southwest fri/sat I assume this is muted amongst it all, but the risk is there interesting model watching to come. Regarding temperatures anything from an easterly orientation with -7C uppers will not be marginal inland, furthermore SST are on warm side the Thames Estuary in particular, thus this reduces the need for exceptional upper air temps, under showers temperatures would take a tumble yes during daylight accumulations will be limited but by nightfall snow will settle readily.

Not a hope in hell this would be bone dry for south eastern Britain and further on, In conclusion GFS ppn charts are cr@p I think the radar will be more useful.

Overnight lows punishingly cold at or below -15*C in Highland glens I'd guess, In mid winter I'm sure there would be an ice day for quite a few on alas it is March, ripe for hoar frosts. I would think maxima would go no higher than 3C for London

Yep Paul S Charts like this excite me, *Thames Streamer alert* - it has been a bloody long time coming for our region - hopefully we'll see a good fall

Thames Streamer angle? The lows diving to the south of us have their pluses. I am just delighted we're about to embark on to some real winter weather, it has felt like an eternity..

All I ask is for a good snow event something which has not been absent since mid/late Jan 2013 in my location, Ian seems to suggest this is a distinct possibility for S/E Britain as low pressure systems which have barraged the North West this winter take an increasingly southern track posing wintry hazards v interesting weather ahead. March likely to end up the most wintry month, in meteorological Spring of all months - to think it's 15C right now a big drop on the way, thank heavens if this season went out on a whimper I'd be gutted.

3.5C please cold to very cold conditions moderating through the latter end of March.

Nope there has been a southern 'correction' on ECM it will probably change again for good or worse In fact it looks largely south of the M4 corridor on the plus side -5C isotherm gets in 6 hours faster clearing Hampshire coast as of 0600 on the negative side of that there is less ppn available & most intense ppn is out in English Channel. Surprise, surprise still on course for some snow Tuesday morning to snow starved southern counties.

Tilt not great at 72hrs going to topple over still colder than GFS:

Dreich, very mild under a thick layer of impenetrable cloud, currently sitting comfortably at 12C although Greenland is penetrable on the GFS with ridging blasting in

Superb WAA shooting polewards, towards Greenland UK locked in an entrenched cold pattern. Systems disrupting nearby lovely.

The first week of March 2013 was mild charts below show winds originating from North Africa. I suppose winds from arctic will pack less a punch, a cold pool to the e/ne can develop quite quickly a remote possibility..well much more likely than a 2012.

Lovely jubbly means tanking -NAO ? 2013 rerun is not out the question is it hyperbolic to say? I do know the month was characterised by cloud and dry conditions for S'England; wet or white for 2016? But this just screams a worthy spell of wintry winter weather developing on the periphery of winter leading into meteorological spring, with cold air being dragged in from N/E. better late than never...

@Snoopie42 I'm thinking rain to snow.

The relevant charts for Tuesday AM a general swathe of snow I hope affecting London, northern Home Counties / N/NW Kent. Mild sector being squeezed out with -5C isotherm tucking into our region with moderate precipitation about. The source of the northerly flow is very cold direct from the pole, at this moment in time I'm only expect accumulations on chilterns ect.

Fergieweather: Snow signal Tues (as alluded to by Nick and others) is now stronger in 00z EC through M4 corridor. I've yet to see UKMO-GM fields. intéressant...

There have been some monsters over the last 12 months. This one being no exception.

A pounding for la Highlands..

Back in grimy London train journey from hell severe delays/backlog into Waterloo an additional 2 hours on the clock from Havant someone got struck by a train at Earlsfield station. ECM has winter arriving with a decent threat of snow. Enjoy this weekend Spring burst as I have a feeling it will be the only Spring like weather you'll see in a while. With MJO going into phase 7/8 good charts like ECM demonstrates does not surprise me.

192 The MJO at decent amplitude finally filtering in IMO into models therefore I feel this is not some sort of false nirvana?

Wednesday will need to be watched closely with a southerly tracking low pressure system engaging with cold air. Bitter Thursday with HLB more abundant on this run I think this is going to turn out to be a 'Stella run'.