Daniel*

Panic would ensue if it ended up the reality, the latter part of the run shows the polar vortex regathering angriness the fact of the matter it is not awful, but that gives me no inclination for deep cold for UK. What we all well most sought for till approaching months end. Heights remain relatively high to the south with Azores high pushing into Western Europe. I think it is odds on Scotland, N Ireland, far north of England will do well over the next few weeks, however I await to see whether this will be more than just a northern affair....

Hi Paul, yes I can confirm that was irritating.

Don't worry I was just being sarky. Your last words made me chuckle. We'll get our turn I sense I'm thinking 2005 esque the Met Office updates seem to portray interest on the tail end of winter. 2013 delivered nothing really just a lot of cloud - despite the strengthening sun, winters seem to linger on longer. You should see the MOD thread over at TheWeatherOutlook hyenas aplenty there v poor moderating. It is a miracle I've not utilised the ignore feature. You can not go wrong with certain people stick with them.

Makes you sick, does it not? I was quite alright with watching the east coast northeaster unfold, at least we were all in the same boat in UK getting sod all Western Europe is pretty much the only place 45N snowless, Kuwait has seen some snow today makes you remember much of 90's winters to early to mid 2000's where places like Athens got bathed in cold air, whereas we endured entrenched southwesterlies. The last few have not been pleasant & indeed keeps the hooligans off the streets . I suppose according to some, me being a millwall fan I am categorically a thug.

Not going the way of GFS at 192.

I changed my name back to Daniel*, I was not quite feeling Earnest Easterly* now I'm regretting it. Into the evening of Saturday there may be some wintry showers for parts of the region the PM blast although short-lived is a tad more potent. Most probable north of London, Bedford ect.

You folk will do v well only 36 odd hours away it is secure, a good set up for Ireland. I expect showers to merge into longer spells of snow, if I was in Northern Ireland I'd be rather excited.

This is what is scuppering any sort of block to the west from getting a foothold. Rapid cyclogenesis.

It feels like something has got to give eventually!

GFS is having another go, with amplification in North Atlantic, pesky lobe puts a stop to decent ridging.

I'm liking what the Jet Stream is doing on GFS 18z.

As you can see on this Air Mass Satellite colder air (purple/red colours) is moving southeastwards. Currently in situ over SE is mild air, indicated by greeny colours out of cities/towns you might wake up to a frost!

Considerable snow risk on 168 colder air undercutting...

Not a whole lot different at 120 although more blocked over the pole.

GFS on the happy juice clearly, up to old tricks by blowing things out of proportion.

UKMO is fairly good once we lose those euro heights to south a cold northerly would be inbound for the British Isles, need more amplification in N Atlantic for it to sustain, however UKMO only takes us to day 6.

Engaging output from ECM this morning with a low diving/sliding into Southern Europe - propping up +ve heights to the NW thereby leading to the floodgates being opened potentially from the E. I'm surprised it is not more busy in here. A definite cooling down to seasonal to below average values from next week seems to be illustrated by the models.

RIP Euro slug always a good foretelling for cold prospects in the UK to see heights drop to the S/SE. PV is looking distressed like a beached whale on Eurasia side, its nasty days are over.

Quite a decent HLB in the polar region a product of the displacement, with the purple monster elsewhere...would be interesting if it approached Greenland following the path of least resistance? I think it would...an encouraging northern hemispheric profile IMO. I'd say looking further afield using my crystal ball, there is a chance currently a very remote one of a cross polar high reminds one of the model output we've seen not so long ago, which did not materialise, that would be fun - I think the tables are turning, perhaps earlier than we envisaged. Instead of putting the focus on mid Feb onwards I do not think it is wise to cast aside the first half of the month, we're seeing these variables which the likes of GP ect discuss starting to be absorbed by the models imho. I could be completely wrong but I have a inner feeling deep down winter's on the way how scientific.

The rain has started here, a lot more to come unfortunately.

Nice to see -10*C isotherm touching the far far north on the last frame. Based on this run, the cold would not last that long before being bowled out....the messy stuff to SW (corrected) of Greenland hampering WAA getting toward Greenland thus ridge topples over, potential for something more sustained going on from a northerly quadrant quite a potent one as well, interest for coldies. Baby steps

Honestly there are multiple folk in here who are more reliable/provide a superior assessment looking ahead his use of CFS does not give him much credence he is a bit like a yo-yo. I fail to see why he looks for possible breakdowns after all, we have not even reached point A. People show know better, things can change rather suddenly. With warming underway volatile times up above and signs of MJO going to a more amplified phase, this will take some time to filter into the models, the winter's over posts are a lot of drivel putting it politely.

Everything really is bigger in the states.

PM blasts are not satisfactory, as we commence into the last week of January all is not lost.

Order your pizzas & your Chinese food!