Daniel*

Bit by bit GFS is getting closer to UKMO with these westward adjustments, all models tend to overdo the energy of Atlantic pushing through against cold air which is not too easily displaced, the models have always struggled on this. UKMO has made some mistakes as has ECM, but it has been the superior model GFS, has been like a stuck record over the past few days. ECM Dutch ens are very impressive the momentum has shifted greatly. Bit premature, reasons to be happy but what a tune! Hopefully excusable considering, RIP Legend

A cold wind today and yesterday from a slight northerly vector it is noticeable compared to of late. You ain't seen nothin' yet. it will be very icy and slippery on untreated surfaces, when all this standing water freezes over.

ECM Dutch ens really going into freezer..

Sydney's distant cousin across the water

Ben let's reserve judgement of the cold spell, it has not even started really, going by UKMO a long way off and to a lesser degree the ECM, despite GFS being Scrooge it does have a snowy breakdown.

Better tilt to the ridge at T+96. UKMO & ECM are not far off from each over - Edit: ECM/UKMO T+120 Houston, we have lift off? Wrong thread, never mind!

Looks similar doesn't it from the 120hr Fax from yesterday, this has not surprised me one bit. It is the model of choice in this scenario.

This low seems to be trending north - 300 miles further north than the GFS 18z from 48 hours ago, should be cold enough for it to fall snow to low levels in far north of England.

I see some back-edge sleet/snow for Thursday as a band of rain arrives even colder air is injected in see negative dew point to W of London heading east, although the precip may be missing or less abundant. I would expect to see on E4 some pink pixels if there was another frame.Sod's law most of the precip coincides with unsupportive parameters. I would say there's a high chance, in some parts of the region seeing some sleet/snow after the rain, which will consist the starter and the main course! There will be snow opportunities:

I'm not quite sure what you are getting at with "residual warmth" it radiates out into cooler surroundings the atmosphere, with it getting colder beforehand I do not think it's a concern, some of the heat gets trapped in surfaces this is most greatest retained by dark surfaces, thus the chance of settling snow is lower as consequence of this warm autumn and start to winter, this is minimised if you're rural. Although having little to no effect on who's going to see snow its down to how cold it is up there, rather than near ground level. Friday morning parameters are not as conducive quite brief, it improves through the day. Just need the all important precipitation still scope for widespread snowfall.

T+120 fax is inspiring.. My geography is not fantastic but that is 7" for Peterborough from pub run - I'm sure Mr T would have some of that. Cambridgeshire, Norfolk being on the firing line. Just as good it's the GFS on the late night gin, with a drenching S of Ely roughly I do not fancy cold heavy rain.

Yes.

The Met Office are siding with UKMO, if not a better solution for prolonging cold with a stronger ridge/block, heights also appearing to want to build in the direction of Scandinavia so a cold continental flow still seems viable to me. The ECM got me feeling a little dreary but now I'm much more intrigued. The sega continues.

Such as below provides forecasters serious headaches with such volatility. Dire IMBY moves you to tears, although large areas of the country are impacted. Some back-edge snow for SE England.

Thank you. Frankly you're rather cynical. It is not ramping whatsoever when it is within 72hrs being modelled by high resolution models, and has a decent chance of verifying the GFS is a rather poor model, I'm not expecting folk to expect a full blown snowstorm. I interpret the models as what I see, it's not coming from a puff of air, clearly this clashes with Surrey anyway the proof is in the pudding. The ECM 12z only reinforces my thoughts, with at the very least some back-edge snowfall for parts of our region. The forecasts I've watched are completely out of kilter and so are the updates, to be fair. I expect this to change in the next 24 hours. Edit: I was saddened to hear the news of David Bowie RIP

Tweet In reference to Thursday snow potential, yes earlier on the parameters are insufficient, but it turns increasingly more conducive for snow as we progress through the day - for snow to fall to low levels.

I'm sorry but I think you're having a wind up...Tut, tut.

High res Arpege apparently the French equivalent to ECM! Has snow for most of us genuinely I'd be rather startled if none of us see the white stuff in SE before the cold spell is out this remains uncertain. Plenty of disturbances in cold flow, alas on marginal side but towards end of week this diminishes albeit turning drier a cheeky upgrade or two in potency would be welcome. I do not feel the need to be pessimistic!

Wintry feeling day. Cold rain falling currently...

Interesting post from fergie if you have not seen it.

Sunday is absolutely frigid on GFS 18z, with UK under HP very cold air remains in situ. UK Max temperatures of -8*C in highlands, overnight I think we'd be pushing towards -20*C. Exceptional cold not seen since 2010. Based on those charts we might be smashing records. Absolutely a perfect synoptic for very low minima & maxima very slack and windless aside from Cornwall & Western Ireland. It most likely will not turn out like this, but I think it was worthy of comment, as mentioned on TWO.

My stomach is not the only thing which is doing somersaults.

Brilliant Fax charts! Decent for a good spell(s) of snow, 528 dam well to S, thankfully the GFS is alongside fax chart for +120hr which offered in excess of 10cm for London, could be some big surprises. Must remain close to the ground but you can't help but get excited.

Who missed the significant snowfall for London & Home Counties on the pub run!

Blimey I was not expecting that, prolonging cold as consequence. Also Siberian high is stronger a decent run this is turning out to be. Most encouraged I've been all day, I cannot dismiss UKMO consistency whilst GFS also was quite adamant. When you get these standoffs, I tend to favour the cold solution winning out, and I suspect this has happened here. We'll have to await to see.