Daniel*

Read AJP's post: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84434-model-output-discussion-cold-snap-incoming-16th-nov-onwards/page-9#entry3285659 Relevant to us folk. On the basis of that London would get a snowfall there is a warm sector/core associated with Channel Low the model may drop it or alternatively changing its north/south extent and consequently which area is under 'fire' - for the last few days Saturday has been standing out for the 'S' word in our region. Short albeit sweet?

This is a nasty windstorm for London definitely set to be worse than St. Jude.

Tipping it down at the moment, mediocre stuff. It is not breezy at all calm before the storm...

[ DP are not of a concern here for the very bulk of the day aside from early in the morning progressively colder air working its way towards us through the course of the day.

Glory to God! This thread would implode temporarily. Regarding dew points I'll look into that now... Surrey it should be sub zero for such a cold airmass.

Polar low?

Upgrade on potency on GFS 18z a parcel of -11C 850's over the heart of Scotland very cold air indeed.

Well they are in collaboration with Met Office so you'd assume it is a reliable forecast unless it is using old data?

Fabulous darling

Not necessarily.Look what XCWeather has for me based on latest GFS 12z data we need to look out for disturbances in the flow and these usually pop up within short notice. This is not the typical PM incursion, it's more substantial.

+240 Not quite sure how we'll go forward here. Overall a cold run.

Based on GFS 12z - Interesting feature yielding a potential snowfall for Soutern England albeit it is marginal and I do not expect much or any accumulation more probable to be rain/sleety mix until darkness descends if PPN is still about in the SE. The flow is quite slack very ideal for evaporative cooling (when precipitation does fall at a heavy intensity evaporative cooling can tip the balance from a sleety mix to full on snow rather quickly). Parameters look good aside from the temperature more so for the far SE So we may have to depend on the time of day the ppn arrives or it may start off as rain and then as we go into evening fall as snow. Maxima of 3C in London on Saturday it will feel very cold compared to recent. I think it is worth keeping a eye on despite it being 6 days out. I'm not saying the above will happen but there does seem to be snow opportunities for the south out of this cold spell, not exclusively for the northern uplands - as characterised by the last winter. It is only November!

The real stuff or white confetti kind? I believe the real ones only operate with temperature below -5C? Goodluck with that. Cheers...CS for the new thread it did go all the way back to that hottest July day on record!!

At 1:00 AM It was 16C quite tropical I think it's likely most of us will see some flakes out of the cold spell whether it will settle/accumulate I feel it's unlikely could we have a new thread CS? This one is getting old.

Cracker of a chart! Also note the kink in the flow a disturbance a general spell of sleet/snow on that would affect coastal parts of SE England. I'm not sure whether this assessment is correct? It will change but it is nice to see. NE'ly is what we want I gather for us southern/eastern folk there'd be some instability and to a certain extent no horrid wishbone as a direct northerly brings.

Many small branches/twigs went down where I am by Storm Abigail and that being relatively paltry in comparison to the above charts of course it will change. I love windstorms typically the far NW takes it all. These more southerly tracking lows are indicative of a more meridional jet = much more leeway for cold PM air to spill south good for coldies meanwhile currently it is raining lightly as it has done for much of the day.

I think it is appropriate time for us to have a new thread? Cloudy, Roll on Cold spell.. Taken from Morning ECM: Get your coats & scarves at the ready it will be a shock to the system with WAA knocking into Greenland that does excite me we have to go back to 2010 for similarities.

I have been going for a partially cold November for ages not one to brag I do not usually stick my neck out but I have felt something different was afoot this time with purple mass away from its usual home. It seems to be leading oddly to how I envisaged the month to go, I've remained quite sturdy on that and I await in interest whether this nagging feeling is printed into substance. It is annoying that the GFS isn't keen but I expect it to play catch up we need cross model agreement. ECM +240 Simply bliss - 2010 undertones. I advice a lot of caution here.

The Squall Line was very impressive where I am the sky went very dark and ominous and then it absolutely belted down with hailstones too - the wind really whipped up albeit it was short-lasting once that cleared it felt like winter had arrived with that windchill.

Indeed, I think it is a important time/reminder to realise how uncertain & dynamic it can be. As you posted just days ago which subsequently caused a lot of hissy fitting. This was posted only 4 days ago it truly does pay testament to how sudden things can evolve. Typically in the UK it seems the inverse of this happens again nothing is guaranteed but it is undeniable something is brewing.

Looks unlikely to me the latter part of November has promise.

Hi Biggin, I'd say it is probable not the supercells! I expect to see a nasty squall line as we have the current very mild TM airmass displaced by a cold PM airmass - quite the contrast, out in states it happens big style.. Tomorrow will feel chilly with brisk westerly wind - you can see -3C uppers over our region.

Only a mad man would. With the NAO trending to take a big dip compared to of recent - perhaps it will not be a state of low heights dominating to the north. Hmmm....Definitely leeway for colder conditions IMO albeit shortlived as one can see currently.

I know we go on winter has not started yet but we are near that tipping point, when we can get wintriness to even low levels time is of the essence you take what you get. Regarding Storm Abigail she looks blustery with a westerly gale isobars the more slack the further south you are thus the lighter the wind speeds - the extreme northern Norfolk coastline: top gusts ranging between 50-60 mph. Nice to see some more fluidity in the weather, expect those trees to go naked.

6 hours before the Streamer initiated I believe and gave a huge dumping IMBY - I think you are muddled it was 2009?