KTtom

Yep, fair assesment. We seem to be in an annoying rut of weekend lows! This weekend another shocker, I make that 4 in a row here. Looks like a brief return to summer conditions mid week, the west may manage a couple of days of warm sunshine, south east, maybe up to the weekend, but looking likely another Atlantic low, allbeit, not as deep as recent, moves in for the following weekend.

It is a fairly consistant theme with the last few gfs runs post day 10. The Met, sticking there necks out saying chances of a settled hot spell in August is low. Warmer looks likely, dryer looks likely but no return to 'June' from what i can see.

Its like chasing cold in winter...latest Met ramblings now talking up late August for something a little more settled...previously it was early, then mid August. At the time a significant warm up was supposed to be underway (week 1 August) we're due a northerly..wouldnt be surprised if some sheltered parts of the north get a frost

Certainly a shift to a more favourable pattern emerging in terms of something more settled in the west, this gaining more traction overnight, however with a trough to the east and ridge to the west, winds are from a northerly quarter, so, IF that pattern does verify, nothing particularly warm, probably below average, especially in the east.

Hmmm, may need a little more support before I organise a BBQ!

For a day 10 chart, its better than the GFS that's for sure.. not sure I'm seeing a heatwave from there tho.. pretty average which is where the Met think we'll be heading mid month with an up-tick of temperatures... also noted that this has shifted out somewhat, was originally start of August.

Nothing particularly exciting on show from 00z. Those who questioned the 'rock solid science' for a hot first week August and got shot down probably having a wry smile.

Then if they are fixated in just using the models only, then that should tell the rest of us something, the models are the best tool. They are THE professionals in one of the hardest jobs going in relation to our location.

Yes, if anything, the heat that some were adamant we would be tapping into from the south by the end of the month is getting pushed further away south as time goes by.

UKMO 168 showing another low moving in off the Atlantic to give another unsettled end to nextweekend after a slightly better, but cool week ahead. Law of averages says we will get at least 1 more dry warm week out of summer but at present still nothing to indicate anything hot incomming for the remainder of July that I can see, which IMO looking at southern europe is a blessing. The met have handled this outlook quite well for a change, they have been promoting winds from the north west for some time and thats what were getting next week keeping the heat to the south.

This is the issue tho.. Net-Weather is a Weather Site where amateurs can discuss the weather, guidance is one thing but posters shouldn't need 'shutting up' because they don't agree with others. One thing no-one can argue about, this weekend is going to feel autumnal!

If the science is 'rock solid' can you explain why the met are not having a sniff of this hot weather in their lrf? In fact they go as far as saying the chances of hot weather into mid August is lower than normal? Do you know something they dont? in which case your in the wrong job. UKMO an improvement this morning for next week but GFS pretty much follows the met forecast with NW winds due to the stubborn position of the Azores high.

I would love to know whats changed to give us what is looking increasingly like a very unsettled July? I go back to Crewecolds post in May where there was a 'clean sweep' from the longer term models for a high pressure dominated July with sizzling temperatures. Does make you wonder for their worth...maybe worth bearing this in mind when they dish up their winter offerings.

We've pretty much missed the heavy rain in the far west to this point, but it looks like our luck is going to change over the next 7 to 10 days... ukmo and others painting a pretty grim picture for next weekend with gales forecast for the west!

UKMO this morning and we're back to the UK low for next weekend...

Met 10 dayer on the previous page explains it pretty well with the hot weather in the States and cold air heading south west of Greenland, high energy where the two meet.

A lovely weekend for some coming up, ECM joining GFS with showing quite a dramatic cool down as we head into July with a developing mid-Atlantic high and north westerlies setting in .

Heavy shower at 4am this morning, apart from that its still cloudy and warm, Met forecast for Wales has been woefull today with zero showers showing on the Net-Weather radar in Wales at the time the Met forecast was heavy showers. Very poor considering the money we pay.

From a purely IMBY point of view I see a, whats become typical summer panning out. May and June dry, clear skies and warm..July and August unsettled whilst the better conditions move to the east...normal service resumes, nothing abnormal.

You know best

You are correct alexis..the storms loose intensity and merge to form a band of heavy rain moving west / north west...progression pretty obvious now if you check out the radar.

Tried that last year and ended up with large bear patches throughout winter, trying a different approach this year by not cutting and watering. Looks like this weekends showery activity is dwindling away, so another 7 days minimum to wait for any rain.

Getting towards 3 weeks now of unbroken sunshine, its getting more humid now we have lost the cool breeze, getting bored of standing on the front lawn with a hosepipe at 5am tyring to keep it alive...just doesnt seem to be any variety these days.

Blimey, you and NWS are hardly on a popularity charge this morning

ukmo also showing showery rain moving up from the southwest late Saturday...