MPG

Patients required then it seems until January....but until then its more of the same. We do see the -5 line over the UK and the PV shunted at 360 on the 0z...:)

Lol, it hard to predict mate! Give yourself a pat on the back, it wasn't that hard to get right was it!:)

Can't see any cold air ovet the UK? Looks averge with S/SW winds. Or is this GP's warm up before the cold hit

There is no easterly for UK on the GFS 0z or 6z effecting the UK. Why are people talking about it?

Seems a change of pattern with regard to the Scandi region with some sort of HP positioned somewhere (meaning the models have no idea just yet). As for the UK, the same theme of westerly with rain. Lots of talk about this high pressure, but not one chart has shown this change of pattern over Scandi directly effecting our shores (well unless your talking about it becoming even milder or about the same).

You can have as much scientific basis as you want, but when it comes to the weather nothing pans out as your shown. So many people said a SSW was nailed last year around Xmas (matt Hugo etc) this was based on sceince, I think it was described in the end as half a SSW but in reality it didnt happen. So what years as you basing this El nino setup with regards to a SSW? I dont believe there are any comparisons and we are in uncharted teritory. It's good to have a straw to clutch, keeps the interested, but nothing is guaranteed. More mild, above average conditions are expected through jaunary. I am basing my thoughts on their science and models (met). Also we live in a mild climate, continuous days of freezing temperatures let alone weeks is the extreme.

Massive straw clutching that the MJO will save us and even more that a SSW will occur. The El Nino is massively over riding everything.

Thanks for the constructive reply IDO explaining what Cohen was saying.

I liked the quote, it said a change to much colder conditions for eastern USA and/or Europe, I'm sure it will change to much colder conditions for eastern USA with Europe above average!

Same sort of idea on the 18z and 00z.

Thats not how I read it.....the first paragraph says 'not predicted to be of sufficient amplitude to significantly weaken the stratospheric polar vortex'. Then says 'if the additional energy pulses are of insufficient duration and amplitude'......then to me it seems we are in for more of the same pattern for a good deal of winter yet.

Nice 06z in FI. The 12z will be so different as others have already alluded to yesterday.

Where's the block at day 10 on the GFS?

Indeed but the main clustering is above the +5 degrees mark. Therefore more likely mild to cool until the end of the month....but there is a clear split but not in colds favour.

I wonder if the weather will balance out as some people like to think.......are we in for some really cold days soon??

You misunderstood, the MO talks of something more substantial than a cold blip shown on the GFS FI output before southerly winds take charge. Will there be anything like this on the 6z?

FI and extremely short lived on the GFS.

I think your first sentence or so completely agrees with my point regarding sometimes above and sometimes below average. November isn't winter...winter started 6 days ago. I've lived in the same area since 1981, and as u describe some snow in November and colder days in December. 1991 for a few days great, 2009/10 the exception. Cheer up, winter has just begun. Move to a more seasonal country is my advice for u. It's only the weather.....

When has the UK ever been known for cold winter seasons? Our climate is mild, that being in winter and summer, with some periods of above or below average. How can this winter be awful, it's 6 days old! This december is no different to any other, wet, windy and snow for scotish hills. 2010 spolit us, and was a one off, we don't live in Scandinavia or Canada. This is normal UK winter fare, really don't get why people expect days or weeks of cold, snow, frost when it's not the norm for our shores.

Meto updates look ecouraging if you like cold.

Conflicting posts?

Thats a great tool, any link to that?

Going by what's on offer in FI and the charts Knocker has posted, it seems that the north could be seeing a more of NW influence into mid month but with lower 850 temps and wintry ppn to lower levels. As for the south more westerly than NW but much cooler with wintry ppn to the hills. Cant see anything proper northerly.

OK, cheers see you next winter....oh hang on its December 4th.........the forth day of winter. When is December ever cold and snowy??? Ok you have 2010, that spoilt us. If we didn't have 2010 all this moaning about no cold in the reliable time frame wouldn't happen.