MPG

Going by this post you could of thought there was NO cold potential shown in any chart over the last couple of days and today. The GFS 06 shows a cleaner path to a northerly out break if you ask me. And again further into FI blocking in the Atlantic and colder conditions into the UK.

Well said.

Still can't see it. Not even -5 upper air in place. Anyway all FI.

Can't see the channel low producing any snow from the 06z output.

It's great having fergies insight from Exeter. This will keep our feet on the ground this winter. Oh and seeing i started it, Fergie is not a fully qualified meteorologist just google or wiki him. I'm still going with the met anomilies, mild to start the gradually cold into jan and feb.

A biologist

Could well be, but being a meteorologist certainly isn't required!

Yes and remember Fergie is only quoting what someone has told him from a model we don't have access to. Fergie isn't a meteorologist remember!

Where's the PV? Not setting up in its usual place so far this winter going by your charts.

I will never forget the GFS picking up the northerly first in 2009......then bang.

Big call Bristle Boy. Its just another model Ian is using, so why should that be right? Bristle Boy's comment is a prime example of 'discussion killing'. A post from a person giving information from a source not available to members here. Because Ian has posted that comment, it now means people will be unwilling to discuss the GFS output.

Steve's working over at TWO!

? And do those amateur members (not employed by any professional body) have access to the models the meteorological professionals have?...no. So your point makes no sense. Members here have posted charts hinting at a potential pattern change to something more seasonable. This makes a good basis for a discussion between members (the whole point of the forum). But then a professional comes along with access to other non-public charts and practically blows any discussion out the window.

Thought my post was pretty clear Blast. For all the amateur enthusiasm for a pattern change (me included), the big gun comes up to dampen it.

No chance....Ian F has posted in the model thread, better come back 1st December.....kill joy.

Drop off ovet the last few dyas

Modoki El nino now forming

All these votes on gut feelings, so funny. If everyone was going by the actual the evidence on show there wouldnt be such a spread in the results.

Please remind me.....was it November 2009 or 2010 that was also exceptionally mild, but not just on the 1st!! Why is everyone forgetting?

What's uncertain? The mold start or cold flip? Both uncertain in my book.

Can you post to where the Met are saying that? That's not what their charts are showing.

I only remember snow actually falling on one occasion in the early morning, that was it last winter (it only settled for an hour or two). You must be mixing up your winters, I only have one period of 'snow' falling in my records. I remember last winter very well, I was saying all along that every winter I see something 'white' falling from the sky, but last winter there was just one occasion. I remember of couple of days with hail falling, giving a covering. Edit...not day a period of a couple of hours around 6.30am.

No thanks.

Not boring? A big HP sat there doing nothing and keeping the british isles relatively calm.......thats boring legritter.

Two conflicting posts....anyone else?