Snowy L

Compared to its own 12z it's the exact same place.

Fact is in most of this afternoon's runs we are bang in the middle of it so at the moment in a good place, a far better place than yesterday where it was a couple of hours of wet snow if lucky before being blown away by mild.

Would think it will be difficult for Thursday's low to track as far South as tonight's one but there is an attracting force thing going on where the further North tonight's one is the further South Thursday's one is.

I don't know this one reminds me of Jan 21.

Can't believe there's a bit of worry about being too far North for Thursday now. This time yesterday we were not even in the game for being too far South.

Whole region gets buried.

Trying not to get excited at the ECM. Wow.

At this time I still think they were using out of date FAX charts showing the low up in Scotland. Most models have it moving through midlands/Northern England now plus more disrupted.

This afternoon's UKMO an absolute bank for our region, North Midlands in with a shout for an all snow event on Thursday/Friday if trends continue.

Hello darkness my old friend Some showers are really intensifying around North Midlands/Yorkshire area at the moment though.

Surprise snow flurry here! Only very light stuff though.

Yes this connection has been going on all week and I can't make sense of it. Does Wednesday's low being further north mean it's a stronger system which kinds of draws the next low closer to its path? Anyway was not expecting that ICON that is a good 300 mile shift south.

Looks like GFS is going for bowling ball too. Oddly the low disrupts during Wednesday but then regains shape in time to blast England with rain? Would say it's nonsensical but anything that keeps snow away from England seems to always make perfect sense in recent years. I've never known such terrible luck and timing until this winter. So much promise yet easily the most frustrating winter I've lived through. ICON, UKMO and GFS all singing from the same hymnsheet and we are running out of time to reverse it unfortunately.

No I mean the met office warning states that southern areas have the highest chance of snow and I've posted the wet bulb showing northern areas are closer to the wet bulb freezing level.

Interesting that the Met say the highest risk of snow tonight is in the South of the warning area but the lowest wet bulb temperatures are clearly towards the NorthEast of the warning area. Definitely not bringing this up out of Imby desperation by the way

Approaching 100ml of precipitation in some parts of the UK by next Monday. There really is potential for huge snowfalls in the lucky spot.

Met Office have given up too! One of the most bizarre periods of model watching I've ever witnessed. The fact we have a monster of an Iberian High yet we're still in with a shout of snow is pretty unheard of too.

I've noticed a few times now where the further South Wednesday's low is modeled, the further North Thursday's low is? Any reasons for this, would think if Wednesday is further South then Thursday should be too. It's happened on the 18z, not a good run this, game over for England and Wales by Thursday night.

It looks a lot worse than the complicated reality imo. In Edinburgh the average remains at -5 or below throughout. Small corrections South and the same could end up being true for much of England.

Look at the difference in Spain between GFS/UKMO and ECM. Northern Spain going green in the former two this afternoon, still orange with the ECM. Hopefully ECM comes on board with weakening those heights later.

Azores high in retreat, the smallest of further weakenings could bring huge results.

Looks like a snow line Manchester northwards to me? In this scenario with battleground snow, surface cold still there and winds coming from the area with the surface cold I'd imagine uppers of -2/-3C would be enough.

A further 200 mile shift South and much of England is buried under an endless stream of battleground snow Need to see similar trough disruption with UKMO and ECM.

Baby steps but out to day 5 that's a bit better than the 06z.

The cold spell, which hasn't even begun yet, is over this time in 4 days according to the ICON...