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Everything posted by Flash bang flash bang etc
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I was considering the same thing next year - such is our dire situation at present in the U.K. My main consistent gripe is we seem to always end up in a situation where there’s heat but no PPN, CAPE but no viable trigger, moist air but with no energy or lift to make it do anything - or any other combination of mitigating circumstances which leads to nothing. To top it all off we appear to always have a stubborn cap in place, and most frustratingly 80% of storm setups just fail seemingly because they can. I’ve been looking at Slovenia for a September holiday - they have amazing storms almost every week without fail. Had enough of getting old watching chances fizzle away - I want storm action!
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Don’t estofex use a system similar to the highways agency? - what I mean is like on motorways where they bolster their reporting of immediate and near-future traffic with historical data, Estofex shore up their model predictions using data from similar setups in the past. Whatever the secret is it just seems to work
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Tony mentions capping on UKWW: ”IMO today's outlook has ultimately become dependant on a fine line of condusive conditions. A number of small convective cells have tried to punch through the cap but quickly subsided. This is very evident if we re wind radar so far today. We are now approaching a point where we lose surface heating and the any results will be unlikely based on the overal synoptic set up.For me, I see the classic condition of a strong mid level cap as was very clear within the 12z Larkhill ascent. This is why there were isolated pockets of strong dbz shown, but which just as quickly dissipated. The evidence is already shown, and it would have required some big surface warming with moisture to overcome this layer.” (Couldn’t remember how to put this in quotes) He also mentioned the potential of cold-pooling too - so like you say looks like we’re good for a few hours yet Edit: is mid-level cap the same as a warm nose?
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You can see on satellite that the cap’s keeping the clouds supressed. There’s also a lot of cloud filling in the remaining clear spells between the two fronts (though we are well past the stage that heating would do much anyway). I have a feelin we are rapidly moving towards a bust (of sorts - considering the forecasts were very restrained anyway). It’s the usual story of a couple of hours on the precipice of something, but that vital kick is missing and it all falls flat...
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I think for the best potential at about 6pm should note the clear skies to the south over parts of Hants, along with areas around Maidenhead up towards MK. I wouldn’t expect anything too prolific but wondering if storms will be moving very slowly, varying in intensity (not quite popcorn showers) and fading just after it gets dark. Of course we could also see that nobody gets anything
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I’m potentially going there in a fortnight for a work trip. Would be excited but I can guarantee my boss will find a way to distill all the enjoyment out of a two day/ one night visit - it seems to be a talent he has developed
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Model output discussion 14/04/18
Flash bang flash bang etc replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Jeez these mod thread posts are always the same “GFS says rain by day seven therefore it MUST mean rain until October - no wait! ECM shows a single shaft of sunlight over Telford at 128Z so prepare for a heatwave lasting until 2080....” Sigh, can’t ppl just hold back a bit ? -
It’s nice to see the convective thread appear on the homepage every now and then during long periods of calm weather (like what we’re experiencing) - so hats off to you for that Could see some almost tropical looking skies this evening and it’s probably felt hotter today than any other so far during this heatwave. Walked out of the supermarket earlier on at about 7pm and it was actually like walking out in front of an open oven door. Van temp was reading 35° - and that was after about 5 mins of driving. Incredible really - just need some good storms now