JeffC

Yay! Sweat box....

I'm drying my old fashioned telly outside after it flooded...?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcybg0rne looks like you might get 50 ish

The Old Man has sustained winds of 60 mph with 74 mph gusts, which may be on the low side! Oh, and Snow, lots of snow! https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gctv31b50#?date=2018-01-03

aye in fact it would be more like sleeping in a kite!

Looks like I'll have to tie the bins down cos it's coming straight past my house! just hope nobody is wild camping higher up

This is more a snapshot of current status but still worth a look, especially when any warming wave does appears. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-7.61,83.89,360 Apologies if I'm teaching anyone to suck a festive egg!!

I'll go for 3.3C please and 123mmm rain

Aye, but Cumbria is a big county - say 60-70 miles N-S and say 40 miles W-E and a variety of heights ASL. How does this pick out the difference between say the top of Scafell Pike and Arnside, because the differences will be massive

Question, excuse my naivety...How good are the models at dealing with solar output as a variable? What I mean is that the nwp models will all be programmed with algorithms based on laws of science and previous developments. When Solar activity changes the results from that are (I understand) somewhat more randomised, which I guess may make the models struggle regarding accurate prognoses. We've seen this late autumn and winter some fascinating shorter-than-usual-term changes when the models have suggested the Atlantic tonal low fest is upon us, only to get a more meridonal pattern in reality. So if the models aren't able to cope (yet) with solar output fluctuations or low levels, then maybe there is less to worry about regarding cooler weather this winter.

Grim looking morning, rain woke me up, mother nature you can be cruel beast, you could have let it snow just a bit! Not sure it'll be rain at higher levels though, not yet at least.

Foggy in parts hereabouts, just driven back through Grizedale Forest as that was better gritted than the (even more) minor roads. Temps varying between -1 to -4C and all cars well frosted. Roads quite slippery in places even with winter tyres. Hoping that tomorrow's deluge might at least start with snow as we often get that due to proximity of the higher cells. Fingers crossed although it's inevitable that it won't last too long!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-0.87,77.65,363/loc=-143.732,58.049 This shows a temperature differential at 70 hpa but nothing obvious at 10 hpa...pity there isn't a greater pressure resolution as it would be interesting to see where the warm sector starts and finishes with greater accuracy.

You start chewing they'll stop pushing!!

It's Piers Corbyn's interstellar order for severe winter weather, it was supposed to arrive via white spacecraft man, but they just posted it instead.... I'm here all week...

A lot will be down to topography as well e.g. We often get snow in Coniston even though the village is only about 50m asl because we're in a valley at the foot of the mountains, whereas almost due west of us windermere and kendal maybe get less or sleet as they're not as close to the fells even though similar height. I've seen it raining in Kendal but snowing like crazy at home! That said let's hope it's not quite so marginal!

I live in them!! I'm right under the Old Man - and look east towards Grizedale from my office and bedroom... I'll let you all know how much snow we get provided the snow isn't that deep that it knocks off all the Internet etc...

It's a message from God "watch out uk you've got the heavenly winter from hell coming" honest!?

We don't do too badly, used to be even better! That said I can name 2 occurrences of 24" of level snow since I moved into this house in 1995...

That's good news!!

Oh and should / could of instead of could / should have and your vs you're!

And there vs their...does my napper!

Ye Gods I got it right!! Cue Blackadderish type hyperbole....

The trop does seem to be hanging on to the power, not very up on these things but usually the trop and strat would have coupled up by this stage in the year, wouldn't they? Are there any years we are aware of where the two never did connect and what was the winter like if that happened?

Cloud formations sponsored by Nike?