doctor32

damp, foggy and cold here, await the week ahead with interest... will it snow or not? thats the question this morning

gem going the same way as ukmo too @144 incoming easterly here.

much better going forward from this ukmo @144 hope ecm agrees later... and enough of the gfs for another run now lol

gfs @120 compared to ukmo @120hrs ukmo still better, everything further west still? Looks like its another case of gfs vs euro's again tonight!

No snow expected tonight apart from pennine areas to the west in the form of showers... tomorrow has a showery day with these sometimes wintry (mainly higher ground) 12 noon tomorrow from euro4 Thursday still looks of most interest from our point of view...

Nothing much to add here this morning, windy this morning with organised bands of showers moving west to east. some wintry on higher ground or heavier bursts and feeling cooler. As for week ahead, blustery with rain or showers over next few days then its still looking like thurs/fri for more widespread snow then into weekend cold with widespread frosts and coastal showers.

Also with upper 850 temps often of -6 and lower, any precipitation that falls will often be wintry and any shortwaves/troughs in the mix will deffo be of snow nearer the time, again more so thursday onwards and over next weekend... but thats only going off what euro models are showing today and it will a case of wait untill the day comes to be certain... In short we are heading for a cold spell, wether this lasts into the following week, who knows? As for snow in any one place we will have to wait a few more days to confirm up on things.

As it stands next week will get progressively colder as we head into thursday... thats when the headaches begin as all euro models keep the cold going and add shortwaves running down across the country then dragging in much colder air over the weekend but as thats a long way off it is not set in stone... only gfs takes on a different view on things. looking at todays 12z runs @ 120hrs, gfs has a shortwave in the mid atlantic SW of iceland that stops heights building up and allowing more of a northerly flow for the uk as seen on next image from gfs @ 168hrs Now in comparison both ukmo, ecm and jem go for a different solution in moving that shortwave feature towards uk in a SE direction leaving heights to build in atlantic and a more northerly flow to develope and the high to move over the uk on a more northerly movement as shown by following images. ukmo at 120hrs with the shortwave circled further east heading toward uk it allows the heights to build behind allowing more of a northerly flow further on as shown here And as for ecm even better...

I will have a go, tonights runs have improved slightly... especially for us in the northeast. Will do a more in depth post shortly, may take a while to type lol

Overall i'm personally pleased, more so as i live up north in a favoured spot if these charts verify near the time. Still plenty to change over next few runs regarding what happens thursday onwards

ECM looks better @ 120 than gfs and ukmo to me

That is quite a few to suggest the ukmo may well be on right track with gem and possibly ecm when it arrives

well i suppose its all eyes on ecm post 144hrs then, still feel that gfs wont be right past this... just my own thought though

ukmo better at 120 in mid atlantic with that shortwave gone or more moving towards uk to let hight rises build up in atlantic?? And at 144hrs...

True, just looked, but was generally speaking for the uk and surrounding areas they appear to be similar... i'm still learning lol

not much difference between ukmo and gfs @ 96hrs part from the low to SW more pronownced

I think crucial time for model watching today is between 96 and 144hrs as thats where the models start to differ and then the following timeframes change quite abit. have a feeling that ukmo and ecm will be more close to the mark and will see gfs 12z as a better run when it comes out. hopefully over the next 48hrs we will start to see which areas are more likely to see snow aswell

Another dull cloudy wet day with bands of heavy showers moving through... pretty foggy here too atm. Still looking at end of week for real snow potential going off this mornings ecm.

yes the models have changed alot over past couple of weeks and will do so again in the next week and the week after etc... thats what makes this so intersting. Although i love snowy weather in winter like the majority on here i do feel we llok to far ahead and worry when it will end before the cold spell even starts and miss out on the finer detail of what may happen between now and next weekend... looking at the charts i'm certain quite a few will see some spells of snow with lying snow possible and the chance of widespread snow later in the week when systems/fronts bump in to the colder air. Think we should all look for chances of snow this week and worry about the weather after next weekend closer to the time as it will change from what it is showing at present

Uppers much colder for more of the uk @ 144 on gfs compared to 06z run... surely more chance of us seeing something more snowy, mainly from showers.

yep another miserable day, rain and brief sleetyness. Model output all over the place last 48 hours so still non the wiser regarding next weeks cold spell. still looking at wednesday onwards for real snow potential.

For snow showers ideally you need dew points around zero or below and 850 uppers of -6/-7 to almost guarantee snow, plus a few other elements. As someone else mentioned you can get snow in higher uppers of -2 say aswell mainly from frontal/band snow and in heavier falls. Coastal areas may differ though. I think this is correct to the best of the knowledge

The wind direction will vary during the week from west,NW,N,NE direction depending where the low/troughs end up to the east of uk and any disturbances the pass down in the flow which as past this time frame is harder to pick up. Generally though if you follow the lines back from where we live you can see the come from a cold north/northeast direction, dragging the very cold air ever closer. The below three charts are all 120h ahead from the latest 12z runs, the show anything from N, NE and NW (over our region) A another good chart to look at for snow prospects is the 850 temp uppers.

As i love snow in the winter i have been keeping a close eye on the developing cold spell heading our way next week, must say it's still looking rather messy and things will change day to day as we get nearer the time so trying to forcast where it will snow and when is anyone's guess at the moment. The main theme is it will turn much colder than we have had so far this winter although for now nothing extreme. I think it will be from wednesday onwards for any real cold and widespead snow prospects to arrive but we are in a favourable place and the higher you are the more snow you will see unless we get mainly coastal showers. Hopefully everyone here who has been waiting a long time for some decent cold will have a better understanding of what it may bring over the weekend (sunday night)

Still a fair amount of lying snow around which should slowly thaw later today as the rain/sleet moves north. Back to normal over next week or so with unsettled but mild, sometimes very mild conditions.