Sperrin

What forecasts were they? Cause the Oz has the -4 line down S France and -8 half way down Ireland. Anything falling from the sky will be white. Friday has always been forecast as more focused on the North and West coasts anyway. If you're getting your figure from apps then you're wasting your time. I'd use official warning e.g met office/Met IE before them any day.

I see your 10cm boofer and raise it to 15cm in Loughmacrory (170m asl) Official met office yellow warming has just been issued: Cold air originating over Arctic Canada will affect the area from Wednesday evening through Thursday, bringing snow showers and strong winds. Wind gusts up to 55 mph are expected in exposed coastal areas and on hills in association with snow showers, leading to temporary blizzard conditions. As well as reduced visibility, 2-5 cm of snow could accumulate anywhere within the warning area, with 10-20 cm possible above 300 m. Lightning may accompany the heaviest showers, with potential disruption to power supplies as a consequence

You have seen the Irish and UK met forecasts?

They change more often than the direction of the wind, even right up to the day itself. Wouldn't worry about that at the minute. Where you from?

I'm sure most have seen this but Steve M posted this on model thread, looks good for us up North now we're moving in closer to T0.

Getting ahead of myself here but the long range forecast on BBC tonight mentioned the possibility of the slider low mowing NW/SE early on Saturday. They tracked it running down the west coast of Ireland and mentioned that if enough cold air remained it could produce significant snow. The 18z highlights the risk, would be very marginal but the northern end of that band could produce some intense snowfall. Reminds me of March 2013 when the east of Ireland was cold enough for epic snowfall but the warmer uppers West led to mainly heavy rain.

Where'd you see that, Sparky?

That ECM really has cemented my faith in the cold spell at the end of the week. Can't help but get excited at some of the wintery potential we could experience!

Met office app showing heavy snow for me on Wednesday, Thursday (ice day too!) and Friday. Excitement building!! Taken with pinch of salt, as always.

Teeth gnashing over on mod thread as the fantastic charts from last night have been toned down this morning, however, looking good for us well within the reliable now. This should be the avatar for the Ireland Regional thread... b.webp

18z rolling out now and looks much closer to the 12z ECM than its own output at 12z. Happy days! Fingers crossed the pattern continues over the weekend without any major dramas!

My mood's perked up no end since the ECM 12z, looks like we really could get a decent snow hit later next week! It even ended with a wee easterly treat for our snow chasing brethren in the SE England!

Starting to get a bit excited, although I made the classic error in mentioning to some of my family that we could see some of the white stuff by the end of next week!! Hopefully the trend continues on the 18z!

@booferking I remember that well, we had approx 8 inches up here in the Lough...I got a pretty cool shot of an intense snow shower approaching from Omagh direction. The photo doesn't do it justice! Edit: you better watch yourself MS, plenty of Tyrone men in here!! ;-)

13th January appears to be a date to watch out for.

It stomped all over the GFS and ECM when they went full throttle cold in the very recent past. Is there anyway to discern the 850s from the UKMO output?

Good consistency over the last number of GFS runs regarding the NW plunge if colder air around the 11/12th. The mean still hanging around the -5 Mark out to the end of the run. Would be nice to see the other models jump on board. Usual caveats apply although it is moving closer to the reliable.

Happy new year to all, hope you've had a good one! After the spectacular fail of the modelled cold plunge there appears to be tentative signs of a new horizon. With charts starting to suggest an increased chance of cold moving in from North/North West. This is reflected in the 6z ens spread from this mornings run which look good for cold for us in Ireland. Note the mean with uppers around -5 from 12th through to 17th. All for fun though at that range.

The 12z op is a big mild outlier, just like the crazy 6z the other day (it being an extreme cold outlier)

The ensemble suite from the 6z shows a chance of snow from the 1st Jan through to the end! All to be taken with a pinch of salt at this stage, still excellent model watching.

Radar showing rain turning to snow as it's moving inland and met office app showing snow for rest of the night, what's the deal? Wasn't expecting that, not expecting it to come to fruition either.

@Sawel are you an Owen Roe man or CNG? I'm an omagh blow in, been living in the Lough now for 5 years. Getting involved with the club with my kids who go along to the u-6s.

@Sawel great picture, where is that taken from? The Donemana to Plumbridge road? My Grandad is from Aughabrack and the great snow in the early 60s forced him to move to Omagh, and there he stayed. The view out my front window is up at Mullaghcarn mountain (542m) which is more or less the start of the Sperrins to the south.

Pretty intense squall line just moved through Omagh, snow falling as well. Blizzard like conditions for 10 mins. Far too wet for it to lay. Gives it to stay very chilly all day, wonder if higher ground will get a covering later on?

After a few days downgrades the 18z has interestingly reduced the intensity of the Xmas day storm and bringing in slightly colder air. Precipitation charts showing potential for snow on the big evening...