Sperrin

Did anybody see the huge green meteor this evening at about 5.10pm?? I had an amazing view of it!!

It really still is up in the air regards the weekend but we in Ireland (particularly further north and west) appear to be in the prime spot (outside of the Highlands) to see some of the white stuff over the Christmas period. All models are showing the Pm shots coming in from the WNW so we are taking a direct hit of the coldest and least modified air.

First snow flakes starting to show up for me on BBC app (just for fun as those apps are as useful as t*ts on a boar)

Surely we'd get snowfall with those uppers, abyss?

12z now my official favourite model haha! Who knows what will happen but we (along with NW Scotland) appear to be in the best spit if it all falls on the correct side of marginal. If it does happen we could hit the jackpot! No doubt the 18z will take away all our fun!

6z does have slightly colder air over us versus the 0z on rhe 24th so maybe a chance. Christmas day has a wedge of warmer uppers moving through and could be very rough early in the morning closely followed by another storm on the 26th. Would be some craic if we could pull in cold enough air in those storms for snow. Imagine the blizzards!

Was just coming on to post the same thing, Neiller. Absolutely rubbish output now for next weekend and onwards.

Hahaha! I always remember being sickened when my mates from around the county came into school with reports of great snow and we got stained glass window all in Omagh.

Nice one, Boofer. I wasn't sure if the air was going to be cold enough next week as it appears to be on the knife edge, however, the guys at MetEr have boosted my mood significantly. Where in Tyrone are you yourself, boofer? Pom, this could be a tough week for you if it turns out Pomeroy gets a pasting?!!

Cheers for the heads up, Ian. Here's hoping we get some joy out of the PM shots showing up around the Christmas period.

@fergieweather Hi Ian, really appreciate your input into this forum. You and many others have significantly improved my understanding of meteorology over the past years. Are the ECMWF clusters seeing interest from the east or from the North/N West?

Oops!! Post removed.

Jaysis Ronan, if there's a power cut how would we lamp post watch???

Looking at recent runs there appears to be a chance of PM shots of -4 uppers around the Christmas period. Perhaps a chance of seeing some white stuff in favoured locations?

I'm no expert but I'm assuming that these last 5/6 weeks will be very interesting for retrospective study. Considering all the strong signals for positive (i.e. cold) winter weather, that havn't *as yet* come to fruition, there must be some greater forcing mechanism that has caused the weather pattern we are experiencing (and look to be experiencing in the near future) to unfold.

What's the difference between the GFS and GEFS? Is the GEFS an updated version of the GFS? Cheers.

Had to nip out of work and do a message. It's 2pm in late autumn and my car is telling me it's -2 in the shadows and my windscreen has refrozen with a thick frost still lingering. Mighty stuff! This mornings models are the icing on the cake. If they were to verify with a stonking north/north wester blowing in then we could do really well. However, that ECM is still a big bug bear considering it's triumph over the GFS a few weeks back. Although there does appear to be more support within its own ens and other models. A big 12z coming up!

ECM is an absolute disaster at +240, full on zonal train. It's amazing how two models can be so different. If the ECM wins out this time then the GFS may pack it's bags for a long holiday.

Today's met office update is quite good from our point of view, especially those in the North and West. UK Outlook for Monday 28 Nov 2016 to Wednesday 7 Dec 2016: The rest of November is looking dry though often rather cloudy for most. However, it is likely to turn wet and windy in the north-west through Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Some fog and freezing fog patches are likely, especially across central parts and it will be generally cold with overnight frosts quite widely. Through early December things are likely to turn more unsettled from the north-west, with some very windy conditions. The rain may turn to sleet or snow over high ground, and possibly even to lower levels at times. Temperatures should be around, or perhaps a little below, normal. High pressure should start to dominate as we go through the December turning things more settled

Similar evolution so far on GFS 18z out to Nov 28th

Better height rises on 18z at +134 hours?

Great runs this evening, hopefully there's a bit of consistency on the 18z and 00zs in the morning! Just to back up your point re snow potential MS, here's the ens from the GFS 12z for Omagh. Liking the volume of snow symbols at the bottom. However, we all know these are to be taken with a full truck load of salt!

I'd advise you to avoid it at the minute, the 18z was a stinker!

These are average temperatures over the coming 48 hours based on expected climate for this time of year. The vast swathe of reds indicate that most of mainland Europe is above what is usually expected where as ourselves, Scotland, Portugal and most of Spain are well below average. For instance, most of Ireland appears to be around 3 degrees cooler than the norm. Hopefully that is an accurate enough description!

Not too often we find ourselves in this position...