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Winter Hill

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    Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, IDO said:

    No point looking beyond d7 atm as that is when the gfs and ecm ops diverge in terms of modelling of the Arctic high. That change sends each run in a different nh flows:

    gfs>279313218_gfsnh-0-192(1).thumb.png.545b1fd4dc3d0273d820ef000726c643.pngecm>ECH1-192.thumb.gif.a10083940d8facc699dd7ae93c0e5351.gif

    I checked on the means for the same time and they each support their respective ops! Once that is resolved we can maybe see a path forward from there?

    No point looking beyond d7 ?? 

    bit ironic, when you will post a chart from the GFS @ T+ 360 and proclaim game over for any cold spell. 

    • Like 7

    North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Yes, the front with easterly winds produce a strong orographic drying effect / forcing, with precipitation / convection reforming west of the M60. A classic is 22nd March 2013.

    The showers, on the other hand, are not subject to this "forcing" & so undergo decay over the east of the region this often bringing snow to Manchester. Additionally, showers in an easterly whilst are weakened by the Pennines, there is also a minor element of funnelling & precip promoting uplift which can locally increase accumulations. This often found in Glossop / Hyde area before it decays into Levenshume.

    I Doth my cap. 
    you are a very knowledgable person, Kasim 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Aye, the showers rapidly decayed over West Lancashire, Greater Manchester and Central Cheshire which produced a sharp precipitation intensity gradient & therefore a sharp accumulation gradient. Usually showers are carried further west but the ESE component prevented that. 

    The sharp gradient was related to the Pennines which sent the showers into the rapidly decaying phase. Nonetheless the continued shower activity produced noteworthy accumulations east of the M60.

    Glossop 14cm, Denton 9cm, Gorton 7cm, Fallowfield 5cm etc.

    I’ve had some very good snowfall from an Easterly, but like you say, the showers rapidly die a death as they get to my location. Once the showers get to the Bolton area they almost fizzle out when heading to the Wigan area to my west. 

    • Like 1
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