Supacell

Check out the storm pushing north into Evesham!

Yet again work is done for another day. Things looking rather different than this time yesterday with showers erupting at quite a rate to the south of here in a line from Mid/South Wales to East Anglia. They are heading very slowly northwards too so fingers crossed a storm can get here. If not I may decide to chase but unsure whether to intercept the storms around Northampton or the storms near Tewkesbury.

Right that is work done for another day. I haven't missed much so far around here but am now watching that shower south of Ellesmere in Shropshire. It looks heavy and is heading in my direction slowly.

I am guessing here but I would say it is a mixture of wind convergence along with the last shreds of heat from the days heating. Now that the sun has gone down and the land is cooling I expect the showers and storms to decay, there are already signs of this with no lightning for about half an hour. I usually find that storms which have developed as a result of solar heating can hang on for a short while into the evening. Just as I post that reply there are two more strikes between Banbury and Northampton. I still expect the showers to fade now though. It's a pity as they just didn't quite reach Derby today.

Kicking off again with lightning to the NE of Cirencester. Some very well scattered heavy showers across South Wales and the West Midlands.

I wonder if the showers around South Wales can make it into the West Midlands before losing intensity as the sun goes down. I doubt it but if they do then I may get my first chase of the year this evening.

Looks quite remarkable for early to mid April. Great synoptic though with an area of low pressure stuck down over Biscay scooping up ever warmer air from the warming continent (for the southern half of the UK at least).

Unfortunately I think anyone west of a line from Brighton to The Wash will struggle to see much this evening now. I think a better chance for us tomorrow but that means I will be stuck in an office and won't be able to get to really see it. Never mind, a nice surprise for some in the SE and soon EA will join in too with a lot more than I expected.

I think it is more because they are elevated and so not affected by the sea. That would also explain there speed despite very little wind to blow them along.

We have landfall around Newhaven. I am hoping something may get as far inland as here... you never know with the speed they are travelling and the abundance of deep layer shear. Strike north of Havant too.

The cells are moving quickly.

Yes it is starting to look better through the Channel. I wouldn't be surprised if people around Newhaven aren't hearing thunder now. Rapid development around Portsmouth too, although no sferics here as yet.

Whoops, making them public may help! Try again now they should all be available.

Thank you. Yes, admittedly I will be radar watching later today as there is always that chance something could happen and would be very disappointed in myself if I missed it

Any risk today is low - as pointed out in the Convective Weather forecast posted earlier. If we were to be picky then the SE has a slightly higher chance than the SW but in the grand scheme of things the chance is still low. I live in the Midlands and so not the SE or the SW and I would love the chance to chase today. I could in theory drive the same distance to the SW or the SE but I won't be as I would have a very high (around 95%) of seeing nothing whichever direction I took myself. Tomorrow poses better chances for more widespread thunderstorms, although I am at work. However, reasons to be positive are that the GFS charts are littered with potential during the next two weeks (FI in know), some people have already had a storm this year and it is only April 3rd. Last year didn't get going until around mid-May if I remember correctly.

Just took a drive up to Crich which is at around 900-950ft asl and it was snowing there. A thin dusting on the ground but plenty of thick flakes and a strong wind for added effect.

The Peak District is looking rather wintry this morning: http://www.flashbarstores.co.uk/

A decent storm now across Lancashire, they seem to be forming into a line. Unfortunately I am caught in the void of no action between that to the north and what is left of that to the south. Generally speaking though it is a good start to the storm season.

Already a few sferics this morning and now things kicking off to the west of London. No change to my thoughts from yesterday with a widespread convective risk across the UK today.

Squall line just passed through here with some heavy rain and strong winds. The winds were roaring as it moved over. However nothing overly impressive.... until it moved about 5 miles east of here and then looks to have intensified quite markedly Oh well, chance of a rumble or two tomorrow to get excited about.

A lot of weather going on in the next 72 hours with some very squally rain today and Storm Katie later in the Easter break, but I want to concentrate on tomorrow (Easter Day) specifically for the risk of convective activity and thunderstorms. Following today's squally rain band a showery airflow takes over and through tomorrow lapse rates increase across the UK in response to limited surface heating from the now strengthening sun. CAPE is nothing overly special in the grand scheme of things but GFS forecasts 300-500J/kg, which for March is very respectable. WRF shows a little more but NMM somewhat less. However, all models agree on the risk of some thundery activity among numerous showers through tomorrow. Using the GFS, showers already around southern and western coasts will become more widespread by late morning and through the afternoon, with the main risk transferring NE whilst dying away from the SW. The storm risk would therefore appear higher in northern and eastern areas as here will benefit from more surface heating through the morning. The chart for lapse rates shows where the highest lapse rates are at midday and by mid-afternoon. CAPE charts for 12z and 15z tomorrow show the same story with instability dying from the SW through the day whilst increasing further north and east Deep Layer Shear looks to increase from the south but is too late to affect the areas where heavy showers and thunderstorms develop and so showers that do develop will most likely be of the pulse type variety. Having said that, showers could form into bands along troughs and this would likely aid organisation. There also looks to be some 15-20 knots of low level shear which brings about a slight risk of something more potent and a slight tornado risk, especially around the east coasts of Lincolnshire and around the Humber. Chart below from www.lightningwizard.com/maps. In contrast, the high resolution Euro4 shows the Humber and Lincolnshire seeing very few showers with areas across Central and Western areas more at risk. The Euro4 shows a line running from the Bristol Channel to the Wash being one of a few SW to NE running zones, another being from Mid-Wales to Yorkshire. It is probably too early to advise yet on where would likely have the chance of seeing a storm or two tomorrow, but I have reasonable confidence now on there being a storm risk. Any stronger showers and thunderstorms tomorrow will have the potential to produce small hail (up to 1cm diameter) and gusty winds along with localised flooding. Lightning activity is likely but it will not be a widespread occurrence. Nevertheless it is the best set up of this year so far and for me looks to officially open the 2016 storm chase season Showers quickly lose their intensity late in the day for all areas with risk moving out into the North Sea by the time the sun goes down (an hour later than it does tonight). By this time those of us in England and eastern Wales will be looking south for the arrival of Storm Katie. She could provide some very heavy rainfall and severe gales overnight into Monday, especially for southern and eastern parts.

A few very light flurries here too.

A few photos of my Peak District walk: A snowy A57 Snake Pass A view looking north with the tracks I have made in the snow The Kinder Plateau View from the top of Kinder Scout looking north

This storm did have a very defined and photogenic gust front on its leading edge. I was chasing this storm and intercepted it near to the village of Woore in Shropshire and saw the gust front. It looks from this video that the lightning was more frequent when it hit your area, the storm had probably lost some of its intensity by the time it reached me. I believe this storm was an MCS, and a great one too. 22nd August last year was great for storms (a couple of video freeze frames below). Regarding Peak District snow. I climbed up Kinder Scout's northern edge today and there was plenty of snow, or should I say ridiculous amounts of snow up there. In places the snow was over waist deep, such as where it had drifted or filled in the gaps between rocks. It was a hard climb and my legs/feet are paying the price now! Some photos to follow.

Yes it is looking rather wintry up in the Peaks according to the webcams. A number of roads now closed in and around Buxton. http://www.buxtonweather.co.uk Just rain on and off in Derby but never really expected anything so not overly disappointed.