Supacell

I doubt Derby will get anything but agreed that the Peak District looks odds on for a fair dumping. I am still planning on heading up there on Saturday, hopefully there will be a good blanket to greet me.

Just a bit of sleet on and off in Derby. However I won't despair as I will be visiting the Peak District this weekend and so happy to hear those hills starting to turn white ready for then. Forecasts don't show temps in the High Peak getting much above freezing all week so not expecting any major thaw.

Please blow the snow this way after you have had it . Although I think down here we may be just the wrong side of marginal for now. Possibilities this evening though.

I'll agree it has been a disappointing winter for snow, although we did get a couple of cm's of snow here on the 16th-17th January (see pic). Normally by this stage of the winter I have at least been able to walk around in deep snow up the Peak District but even up there the snow cover has been transient and never more than a light covering.

Had a wander over the park and there is around 2cm, maybe 3cm, of snow on the ground. Everything is white and so I am satisfied with that for now. Not enough to build a snowman but enough to make it look pretty and wintry.

Snowing nicely and settling. Only a dusting so far but it's coming down quickly so hopefully I can squeeze a couple of cms out of tonight.

Heavy precipitation now running NW to SE just to the west of the Peak District across the likes of Cheshire and Manchester. That looks to have some of our names on it.

Story of the evening here , notice the big gap over Derby and upwind from it . At least I can see the amusement in it.

A few flakes of snow coming down here too now, settling on cars and wheelie bins. I do wish I could be about 20 miles east of here though.

Radar has been showing sleet here for over an hour but there has not been any precipitation yet. It does appear the line of snow is further east than predicted, which is not good for IMBY. Unless it starts to take a more direct N to S track.

Not sure what to think here in Derby. Some models have me east of anything and so a dry night would be the outcome, others have snow but then others have it remaining as sleet down here with snow on higher ground. We will all know by this tomorrow who, if anyone, got the snow. My pick would be the Staffordshire hills as the best place.

I drove up to the Peak District this afternoon - between Leek and Buxton around the village of Flash. There is a bit of snow, I would estimate about an inch but it isn't a solid blanket due to the rugged ground and plants up there. I did get to see some snow falling though as those showers passed through, which is the first snow I have seen from this cold spell. Minor roads were quite icy and I had to be careful on the steep inclines/declines. I do like these cold spells whereby something can appear last minute or a snow to rain event could stay as snow. Okay, it may come to nothing but it is still exciting to watch the forecasts unfold and change on an almost hourly basis!

The coldest temperature of the month was -12.9c at Aboyne, Aberdeenshire early on the 11th March. The cold spell at the end of the month was more remarkable because of low maxima than low minima with ice days but too much wind for it to get too low at night.

March 2013 was very cold and snowy here around Derby. The Peak District was absolutely pasted with snow and it stayed on the ground from the 22nd March well into April. A few freeze frames of video I took in the Peak District on the 24th March. January 2013 saw some deep snowfalls too but not to the extent of March. There is already some snow up in the Peak District. I will likely head up there this weekend as I expect there will be a nice blanket up there by then. I do not expect anything like the scenes of March 2013 though, I would be surprised if I saw something that exceptional for a long time.

The lightning archive shows a strike at around 1am just off the coast near to Dartmouth.

Sferics are being detected in the BoB and have been for much of the night. Thundery activity has already been into the SW coast as far east as Dorset. This brings me onto today. Numerous bands of showers are expected around an area of low pressure today, spinning up in a northeasterly direction. These will bring some heavy rainfall at times which may lead to localised flooding. CAPE values look to be around 200-400j/kg around southern and western coasts which on the face of it is not that high (but high enough for some thunderstorm activity to occur). Added to this is the component of wind shear and this aids in the development of more organised thunderstorms. Mid level lapse rates are also on the increase later on today across England and Wales. A risk of hail and gusty winds in any heavy showers or storms. Whereas the risk of heavy rain is widespread, the risk of thunderstorms looks to be more likely along southern coasts of England, Wales and along Irish sea coasts of England, Wales and SW Scotland. However I would not be surprised if any more organised storms achieve getting quite far inland today. My thoughts are below. As I said this is a low risk for most, although I do think we have a better risk today than so far this week. The convective outputs do not look like the kind of thing I would expect to see in January.

Thanks guys. If we see anything this week from a convective standpoint then it is a bonus considering it is January.

Two days on and very little has happened. My apologies I did expect from the charts I was seeing that there would have been some thundery activity around our southern and western coasts. Now either I had been drinking too much Christmas sherry and was seeing things that weren't there or the charts I was looking at were still hung over from their New Year celebrations. There is still a risk of something thundery occurring today around southern and SE coasts of England but if the last two days are anything to go by then I would not hold my breath. After a quieter day tomorrow and more dynamic rainfall into Thursday, there is further convective interest for the end of the week/weekend but it is a long way off and again my breath is not being held for this one.

Welcome to 2016 and a brand new year for our storm chances, lets hope we get some good ones. I am looking forward to spring when I can get out there and storm chase once more. Clearly thunderstorms in the winter months are a rarity but they do happen and are frequently more likely across coastal areas. This brings me onto this week. Currently a strong set of occluded fronts are pushing NE through England and Wales before stalling across Eastern Scotland, bringing a risk of flooding here. Behind the second occlusion which is now crossing the Midlands the parent low pressure system is likely to generate heavy showers as lapse rates increase markedly. For this time of year the CAPE values being shown around the coastlines are fairly impressive. CAPE and LI for midnight tonight and 12:00 tomorrow TT index is often a good indication of storm strength. The TT values being shown here would indicate that thunderstorms would be severe, however with only limited shear and CAPE not that high I am not sure severe storms can be expected. Lapse rates are impressive though My thoughts are that heavy showers will push into Wales and the SW this morning and become heavier and more widespread across all southern areas this afternoon. Thunder is more likely around coastal areas but may get inland around say the Bristol channel. Tonight any showers inland will tend to lose their intensity but will continue to pepper the southern and western coasts with an ongoing risk of thunder. Tomorrow there will be more showers from the word go in the SW/Wales and these will be pushing NE through England. Again the main thundery element will be around the coastal areas of Wales and the SW but I would not rule out the odd sferic anywhere in the UK south of the Midlands. ELT's will be around -30c to -40c around the coasts and briefly across most of Central and Southern England tomorrow and so hail and lightning is quite likely at times. ELT's at midnight tonight and then 12 o'clock tomorrow So it is certainly worth keeping an eye on. Estofex have indicated the southern and western coasts as a risk area for lightning but I think tonight into tomorrow looks better. I do not anticipate any severe weather although with the recent flooding and the fact that the ground is saturated (even here in Derby everywhere is waterlogged) there is the risk of flooding where showers are coming in one after another. There is the risk of further thundery episodes throughout the latter part of this week too.

So a rare get together on here in the convective thread for the last day of 2015. Have a happy New Year everyone, my eyes will be on the sky until this evening when it will be on food and drink!!!

It is snowing in the centre of Derby and a light covering of about a cm. Not bad for this area in November.

An intense looking squall line passing east/southeast through the southeast Midlands and East Anglia currently with some recent strikes in north Norfolk.

I have just been for a drive out and there are lots of branches, twigs and the odd wheelie bin in the road. I haven't seen any serious disruption although there are power cuts within my postal code apparently. It still sounds wild out there, I do not know how strong the gusts are but I would estimate 50-60mph. For the centre of the country that is strong. Can hear things crashing around outside and the walls are creaking...i dread to think what 70-80mph sounds like!!!

There are some strong gusts outside here now, and they are set to get stronger.

Thunderstorms in California are almost non-existent, but there is obviously sunshine aplenty. I would move to central Florida.