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Stabilo19
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So there we have it! The stats show almost the entire UK was cooler, wetter and duller than average. And yet a few on here were adamant that it was an average July for most of the country?
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Will be interesting to see how El Nino affects this autumn/winter. Northern Hemisphere SST anomalies are generally +++ so it's perhaps hard to imagine that we'll get any colder than avg weather early in the season..
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I would've thought September heat is better for most because the nights are longer leading to lower minimum temperatures <10°C and lower humidity. July heat is always humid and often accompanied by unpleasant 18-20°C min temps.
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Agreed, 20°C with wall-to-wall sunshine feels so much better than a cloudy, damp 25°C! Which is why the CET doesn't paint the full picture. This month might appear to be a good summer month (temperature wise) when you look back in 50 years but we can't ignore how the lack of sunshine and numerous rainy days have resulted in an overall poor summer month.
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Stabilo19 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes let's paint an accurate picture for London Heathrow Avg July Sunshine hours: 217.8h Actual to date: 136.9h With rain reported on 13 out of 27 days to date. Relentless flooding rains? No. But it's been persistently overcast, damp and miserable. We're not making it up!
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Cold and damp in London. You could mistake it for November out there this morning - and not for the first time this month.. I can't bear to listen to the news talk about the heatwaves all over the world any more while it's like this here.
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I'm holding onto the fact that Faversham recorded 38.5°C on August 10th 2003 and London had 5 consecutive days of low-to-mid 30s last August and hoping that summer returns to the SE in the next few weeks. Fortunately we have plenty of potential for hot weather even into September. But perhaps the clock is ticking for those further north to get proper summer warmth.
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45/46 in Sardinia currently, just shy of the European max. record. At least it's a dry heat?
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I feel like i'm being gaslit looking at that data! It would suggest the max temp has been about average.. but this July in memory has been very poor due to the lack of sunshine. One of the worst I can remember and a good case of the data not reflecting the reality on the ground.
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I don't mind the cloud after we've had such hot and sunny June so far.. but I draw the line at summer drizzle. Yuck! Today was supposed to be mid 20s in London
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June has been exceptionally warm for many, with potentially record breaking temperatures for the time of year. Sure, the temperatures have now dropped significantly but London is still forecast low to mid 20s for the foreseeable. These are average summer temperatures. Whereas the good summer weather we've been having is unusual and shouldn't be expected to continue for months on end.
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Unpopular opinion but.. we shouldn't be expecting high pressure and mid to high 20s/30s constantly for 3 months every summer. That's not the climate of the UK. Cooler and wetter spells are not unusual. I don't see the rationale for writing off the rest of the summer based on the current charts
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Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023
Stabilo19 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Bog standard storm over central London atm. Heavy rain, a few rumbles, no hail. -
The Met's placement of the showers is a bit too far South for my liking. Really would prefer a hot, sunny day
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Looking at cumulative precip out to Sunday morning, Arome, Arpege and ICON all on the same page now with it remaining (mostly) dry across the SE tomorrow. What's less certain are cloud amounts.. but it will still be hot in the high 20s, possibly low 30s in the east. A rapid turnaround after failing to hit any high temperatures so far during the spring/early summer in the SE.
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Agreed, there is potential for high 20s across the South, as shown by ICON but still concerning seeing other models suggest high teens as the max temp. I'd be fuming!
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GFS 2m temps are barely hitting 20 degrees across parts of central and southern England on Saturday, and the Arpege isn't much better - both reflecting potential rainfall in these areas. Really hope not as many people are expecting a dramatic shift to warmer weather this weekend
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Just 2 weeks until the summer solstice
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Purely from a gardener's perspective, the ground is becoming very dry and hard/cracked in places and it's requiring daily soakings. A bizarre turn of events after all that rain we had..
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Yes I agree, we're weeks behind weather-wise. Just stepped outside midday in June and there's a chill in the air. It's just not right!
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Another chilly morning in London.. could say cold in the wind. I don't care if the sun comes out at 2pm and it reaches 40*C - if the mornings require jeans and thick jackets then it's not summer weather. Meh!
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Looking at the GFS, the outlook is pretty crap if you're a summer/heat lover. Max temps barely scraping 20-21 IMBY. The mid 20s+ keep getting pushed back into FI.. I would expect to be wearing shorts & t shirt now that it's June in London but its still too cold in that strong E/NE wind! PATTERN CHANGE PLEASE
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Feeling lovely in the sunshine but how much longer can we go without seeing mid to high 20s (let alone 30s) in London & and the SE?!! And still nothing hot forecast out to June 9th (GFS). I can't remember the last time we had a spring with such subdued maximum temperatures.
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The overview for the next few days is hardly inspiring either I appreciate it's been a decent spring further North and West but i'm so fed up of the cloud plaguing the SE..
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I agree with others, it's gloomy, very windy and feeling chilly in London today. We're about 4 degrees lower than what the Met Office forecast for 2 pm We need a pattern change, the positioning of the high pressure has been pants for us for the past week or so
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